# A changing tide in the HDB resale market?

- **Source:** EdgeProp Singapore
- **Published:** 2026-08-06T04:00:00.000Z
- **Author:** Kelvin Fong and Wong Siew Ying
- **Original:** https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/changing-tide-hdb-resale-market
- **Topics:** HDB & Public Housing, Government & Policy, Transactions & Deals

## Featured rationale

The modest declines alongside quarterly sales of around 6,300 flats signal recalibration rather than a sharp downturn, potentially giving buyers more choice while preserving upgrader demand.

## AI summary

After rising 56% from 3Q2019 to 4Q2025, the HDB resale price index fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in 1Q2026 and another 0.3% in 2Q2026.

## Original article

HDB resale prices moderated in the first two quarters of 2026, following an extended run-up stretching over six years. Between 3Q2019 and 4Q2025, the HDB resale price index climbed 56%. It then edged down by 0.1% q-o-q in 1Q2026 and a further 0.3% q-o-q in 2Q2026. Resale volumes have also moderated from the elevated levels seen in the post-pandemic years.

Prices have declined for two consecutive quarters, albeit modestly, while sales have weakened amid a ramp-up in new flat supply and cooling measures introduced since 2021 (see Chart 1).

This may recall the years after 2013, when increased BTO flat supply and policy tightening were similarly used to rein in rapid price growth. What followed was a period of tepid sales and a shallow, six-year decline in the price index from 2013 to 2018.

Read also: Bishan executive maisonette just sold for $1.65 million — among five highest HDB resale prices

The question is whether history will repeat itself. It may not.

Same toolkit, but different dosage

The lead-up to each of the two price peaks — 2Q2013 and 3Q2025 — was rather different. The earlier surge reflected a structural housing shortage and strong buying interest from Singapore permanent resident (PR) households. High cash-over-valuation (COV) amounts were a sign of just how tight the market had become.

Meanwhile, the more recent run-up had different roots. Severe construction delays during the Covid-19 pandemic, alongside a preference for larger homes, pushed many buyers into the resale market from the second half of 2020.

In our view, the 2013 measures likely hit harder than those deployed today. New PR households, then a meaningful segment of HDB resale demand, faced a three-year wait before they could buy resale flats.

Those who owned flats were barred from subletting an entire unit and had to sell their flat within six months of buying a private home. Financing was also tightened, with the mortgage servicing ratio (MSR) cut to 30% and the maximum tenure for loans granted to purchase HDB flats reduced.

By contrast, today’s adjustments have been more incremental and were phased in over nearly three years. The loan-to-value limit for HDB loans was lowered in three steps from December 2021.

Meanwhile, a 15-month wait-out period was introduced in September 2022 for former private homeowners seeking to buy a non-subsidised HDB resale flat. The measure affected a relatively small pool of buyers.

Read also: A three-room flat in Toa Payoh was recently sold for $890,000, a new record for its flat type in the estate

On July 28, 2026, the government removed the wait-out period, citing the stabilisation of the resale market.

In both cycles, the demand-side measures were accompanied by an increased supply of BTO flats, which helped moderate resale demand by giving first-time buyers more options.

Moderation may play out differently

Even though the price index has softened, sales are holding up.

Today, while resale volumes have eased from the elevated levels of more than 7,700 units per quarter on average in 2021 to around 6,300 flats a quarter in the first half of 2026, they remain well above the average quarterly sales of about 4,500 recorded in the 2.5 years following the 2Q2013 peak.

Broadly, we expect resale volumes to remain relatively steady amid population growth and household formation.

In particular, the sudden withdrawal of demand from new PR households seen in the previous cycle is unlikely to recur, as the three-year PR-status rule remains in force and the resale market has since adjusted to it.

Moreover, buyers have largely taken measures such as the MSR in their stride and are better informed today.

Read also: What's moving the market: Singapore's biggest property deals and hottest searches (July 31)

It is also worth noting that median prices have been more resilient than in the last cycle. The overall median resale price peaked at $455,000 in 2013 and eased to $400,000 by 2019 (see Chart 2) — a decline of about 12% spread across six years, with most of that adjustment occurring in 2014, when the median price fell by 7.7% to $420,000.

For context, today’s median of $630,000 sits some 38.5% above the 2013 peak and is at an all-time high, notwithstanding the dip in the price index.

In addition, market observations suggest that COV may be less prevalent today, particularly after a March 2014 rule change requiring buyers to obtain the option to purchase before seeking a valuation, shifting resale negotiations away from COV and towards transacted prices.

In a survey of PropNex salespersons who closed 110 transactions involving million-dollar resale flats in 2025, 69% of buyers paid no COV. Furthermore, in a recent Telegram poll, 67% of the 280 respondents said they would not pay COV if they were buying a resale flat today.

When fewer buyers pay COV, it suggests that transaction prices are generally closer to market valuations rather than being pushed up by competitive bidding. This can contribute to a more stable resale market.

Upgrader demand still intact

We do not expect the marginal dips in the HDB resale price index of late to severely impact upgrader aspirations. In fact, signs suggest upgrader demand remains intact. In April, the Tengah Garden Residences condo sold 853 of its 863 units at its launch weekend, with Singaporeans accounting for 90% of buyers. It included strong demand from upgraders, according to the developer.

Several mass-market condo launches also posted healthy take-up rates: 93% at Pinery Residences, 72% at Vela Bay and 54% at Lentor Gardens Residences. Meanwhile, executive condos (ECs) Coastal Cabana and Rivelle Tampines achieved launch take-up rates of 66% and 93%, respectively.

Many flat owners are likely sitting on substantial equity after the post-pandemic surge in HDB resale prices. Some may consider selling and using the proceeds to fund a private home purchase. However, the amount they realise from the sale will largely determine which private housing options are within reach.

For instance, among resale flats that recently reached their minimum occupation period (MOP), median transaction prices varied widely — from $1.3 million in Clementi to about $642,000 in Bukit Batok (see table), excluding towns with fewer than 20 transactions. For some owners, the sale proceeds may be sufficient to fund a move into private housing, while others may find an EC a more realistic option.

In a calmer market, prospective flat buyers may also be in a better position. They have more choices from the MOP stock and BTO pipeline, including new flats with shorter waiting times, and are under less pressure to pay above valuation for a resale flat.

Taken together, the HDB resale market is recalibrating, and the changing tide may carry the market towards greater stability.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: openai_codex_cli

### HDB转售市场潮向正在改变？

与2013年后的低迷不同，当前市场受到更稳定的需求、更强的资产净值以及渐进式政策调整支撑。

HDB转售价格在2026年前两个季度趋于温和，此前已连续上涨逾六年。2019年第3季度至2025年第4季度期间，HDB转售价格指数攀升56%。随后，该指数在2026年第1季度环比微跌0.1%，并在2026年第2季度进一步环比下跌0.3%。转售成交量也已从后疫情年份所见的高位回落。

价格已连续两个季度下跌，尽管跌幅温和；与此同时，在新组屋供应增加以及自2021年以来推出的降温措施影响下，销售转弱（见图1）。

这或许会令人想起2013年之后的几年，当时政府同样通过增加BTO预购组屋供应和收紧政策来遏制价格快速上涨。随后，市场经历了一段销售疲弱期，价格指数从2013年至2018年出现为期六年的浅幅下滑。

另读：碧山行政公寓式组屋刚以新币165万元售出，跻身五个最高HDB转售价格之一

问题在于，历史是否会重演。答案可能是否定的。

工具箱相同，但剂量不同

两个价格高峰，即2013年第2季度和2025年第3季度，形成前的背景相当不同。较早一轮涨势反映的是结构性住房短缺，以及新加坡永久居民（PR）家庭强劲的购房兴趣。高额现金溢价（COV）正显示出当时市场已紧张到何种程度。

与此同时，近期这一轮上涨有着不同根源。Covid-19疫情期间严重的建筑延误，加上买家偏好较大住宅，促使许多买家自2020年下半年起转向转售市场。

在我们看来，2013年的措施可能比现行措施冲击更大。当时，新PR家庭是HDB转售需求中一个重要组成部分，而他们必须等待三年后才能购买转售组屋。

已拥有组屋者则被禁止整套出租单位，并且在购买私人住宅后的六个月内必须出售其组屋。融资也被收紧，房贷偿还比率（MSR）降至30%，用于购买HDB组屋的贷款最高期限也被缩短。

相比之下，如今的调整更为渐进，并在近三年内分阶段实施。HDB贷款的贷款价值比上限自2021年12月起分三步下调。

与此同时，2022年9月针对寻求购买非津贴HDB转售组屋的前私人住宅业主，推出了15个月等候期。该措施影响的买家群体相对较小。

另读：大巴窑一套三房式组屋最近以新币890,000元售出，创下该市镇同类组屋新纪录

2026年7月28日，政府以转售市场已趋稳定为由，取消了该等候期。

在两个周期中，需求端措施都伴随BTO预购组屋供应增加，这通过为首次购房者提供更多选择，帮助缓和转售需求。

调整过程可能有所不同

尽管价格指数已走软，销售仍保持韧性。

如今，虽然转售成交量已从2021年平均每季度超过7,700个单位的高位，回落至2026年上半年每季度约6,300套组屋，但仍远高于2013年第2季度高峰后2.5年内约4,500套的季度平均成交量。

总体而言，我们预计，在人口增长和家庭形成的背景下，转售成交量将保持相对稳定。

尤其是，上一周期所见的新PR家庭需求突然退出不太可能重演，因为三年PR身份规则仍然有效，而转售市场此后已适应这一规则。

此外，买家基本上已从容应对MSR等措施，如今也掌握更多信息。

另读：市场动向：新加坡最大房地产交易与最热门搜索（7月31日）

还值得注意的是，中位价格比上一周期更具韧性。整体转售中位价在2013年见顶于新币455,000元，并到2019年回落至新币400,000元（见图2），六年间跌幅约12%，其中大部分调整发生在2014年，当年中位价下跌7.7%至新币420,000元。

作为背景，尽管价格指数下跌，如今的中位价新币630,000元较2013年高峰高出约38.5%，并处于历史新高。

此外，市场观察显示，如今COV可能不那么普遍，尤其是在2014年3月一项规则变更之后，买家须先取得购买选择权，才可申请估价，这使转售谈判从COV转向成交价格。

在一项针对PropNex销售人员的调查中，这些销售人员在2025年完成了110宗涉及百万元转售组屋的交易，其中69%的买家没有支付COV。此外，在最近一次Telegram投票中，280名受访者中有67%表示，如果他们今天购买转售组屋，将不会支付COV。

当支付COV的买家减少时，这表明成交价格通常更接近市场估值，而不是被竞价推高。这有助于形成更稳定的转售市场。

升级购房需求仍然完好

我们预计，近期HDB转售价格指数的边际下跌不会严重影响升级购房者的愿望。事实上，迹象显示升级购房需求仍然完好。4月，Tengah Garden Residences公寓在推出周末售出863个单位中的853个，新加坡人占买家90%。据发展商称，其中包括来自升级购房者的强劲需求。

几项大众市场公寓项目也录得健康的认购率：Pinery Residences为93%，Vela Bay为72%，Lentor Gardens Residences为54%。与此同时，执行共管公寓（EC）Coastal Cabana和Rivelle Tampines的推出认购率分别达到66%和93%。

在后疫情时期HDB转售价格飙升之后，许多组屋业主可能坐拥可观资产净值。一些人可能考虑出售组屋，并用所得款项资助购买私人住宅。然而，他们从出售中实际取得的金额，将在很大程度上决定哪些私人住宅选项触手可及。

例如，在近期达到最低居住年限（MOP）的转售组屋中，成交中位价差异很大，从金文泰的新币130万元到武吉巴督约新币642,000元不等（见表），不包括成交少于20宗的市镇。对一些业主而言，出售所得可能足以资助迁入私人住宅；而其他业主可能会发现EC是更现实的选择。

在较为平静的市场中，潜在组屋买家也可能处于更有利位置。他们可从MOP存量和BTO预购组屋供应管线中获得更多选择，包括等待时间较短的新组屋，并且支付高于估值价格购买转售组屋的压力较小。

综合来看，HDB转售市场正在重新校准，而变化中的潮向可能会带动市场走向更大稳定。