# Dubai residential market cools in 2Q2026 amid regional tensions; retail and industrial segments hold firm

- **Source:** EdgeProp Singapore
- **Published:** 2026-08-13T10:00:00.000Z
- **Author:** Atiqah Mokhtar
- **Original:** https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/dubai-residential-market-cools-2q2026-amid-regional-tensions-retail-and-industrial-segments-hold
- **Topics:** Commercial & Industrial, Investment & Capital Markets, Regional Markets

## Featured rationale

The slowdown signals conflict-driven buyer caution, while resilient prime residential, retail and industrial demand may widen performance gaps as substantial apartment supply enters from 2027.

## AI summary

Dubai residential transactions fell 19% q-o-q to 36,620 in 2Q2026, while sales value declined 46% to AED87.9 billion and apartment prices slipped 3.1%.

## Original article

The Dubai real estate landscape saw divergent performances across sectors in 2Q2026, as regional geopolitical tensions prompted “a period of adjustment”, according to Chestertons Global.

While the residential and office markets saw more measured activity in the second quarter following years of expansion, the industrial and retail segments logged resilient performances, the UK-headquartered real estate consultancy firm said in its Q2 2026 Dubai Real Estate Market Report, published in August.

Notwithstanding a more cautious second quarter, Dubai’s real estate fundamentals remain strong, with performance increasingly driven by asset type, location and underlying demand, the report states.

Read also: Asian malls lead in dining and entertainment while specialty retail stays strong: Cistri

“Dubai’s property market continues to demonstrate resilience, but we’re now seeing a nuanced shift towards a more mature market where performance varies significantly between sectors,” says John Stevens, CEO of Chestertons Mena (Middle East and North Africa).

Slower residential activity, but prime enclaves still in demand

The Dubai residential market saw a quieter 2Q2026, reversing from “exceptional gains” recorded in the previous quarter, says Chestertons. Uncertainty in the market due to the US-Iran conflict — which broke out in February — persisted into the second quarter, with buyers holding off on decision-making.

As a result, Dubai residential transactions declined 19% q-o-q to 36,620 in 2Q2026, while total sales value fell 46% across the same period to AED87.9 billion ($30.6 billion). Off-plan property transactions, which made up the bulk of activity, fell around 15% last quarter, while secondary market deals decreased 30%.

Prices also declined on a psf basis compared to the previous quarter. The overall average apartment sale price in Dubai slid to AED1,814 psf in 2Q2026, down 3.1% q-o-q.

However, prices stayed above 2Q2025 levels, bolstered by the villa and townhouse segment. Average prices in this submarket were up 7.7% y-o-y to AED2,339 psf. Chestertons notes that ultra-prime enclaves such as Palm Jumeirah and Emirates Hills continued to set price benchmarks, backed by deep demand from families and high-net-worth buyers.

In the rental market, average apartment rents in Dubai stood at AED123 psf in 2Q2026, marginally lower q-o-q but broadly unchanged compared to the year before.

Read also: CICT net property income rises 8.7%; rent reversions positive at 6.5% for office and 4% for retail

Dubai’s residential supply is expected to increase substantially over the next few years. Chestertons estimates around 146,400 units will be completed in 2027, followed by 120,100 in 2028. The majority of the supply comprises one-bedroom apartments and studios in areas such as the Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay and Dubailand.

In any case, Chestortons notes that sustained demand, coupled with a recovery in regional trade and tourism, should help support gradual absorption of new market supply.

In addition, supportive government policies are expected to improve overseas buyer activity. These include the removal of an AED750,000 minimum property value requirement for a two-year Dubai residency visa through sole property ownership, as well as relaxed minimum values for jointly owned homes.

Steady retail rents despite disruptions

Retail property rents in Dubai were broadly steady in 2Q2026, despite conflict-related disruptions to international travel and discretionary consumer spending.

Dubai saw 19,868 retail rental contracts last quarter, down 14.2% q-o-q. However, average retail rents for the period stood at AED273 psf, slightly higher than in 1Q2026.

At that figure, rents remained at record-high levels, with the 2Q2026 average representing an 18.3% premium y-o-y.

Read also: Frasers Property to connect rewards programme with NTUC Link and Shell for groceries, EV charging and more

Super-regional and prime destination malls — terms that refer to large-scale retail and leisure destinations such as The Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates — continued to drive activity, with near-full occupancy and rents at the upper end of the rental range.

On the other hand, community and secondary schemes faced a more competitive leasing environment, with lower demand and a more price-sensitive occupier base.

Chestertons also highlights a widening gap between prime and secondary stock, reflecting the premium retailers place on retail destinations that draw tourists and high-income footfall.

In response, local developers are expanding proven assets. At The Dubai Mall, owner Emaar Properties is adding 279 new luxury outlets in a new precinct dubbed “The District”, while Majid Al Futtaim, which owns Mall of the Emirates, is carrying out an AED5 billion expansion that will add about 100 new stores. The additions to the two malls were announced in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and will be completed in phases.

Nonetheless, Chesterton observes that Dubai’s new retail supply remains tight, while prime retail spaces continue to experience strong demand.

Consequently, the market is well-positioned to ride a recovery in consumer sentiment and visitor figures, which will propel it into its next phase from a position of strength, the firm adds.

Strong demand in key industrial corridors

The industrial property market also logged a resilient performance in 2Q2026, underpinned by demand for warehouses in key industrial corridors such as Dubai Technology Park, Al Qusais and Jebel Ali. Average rent in these areas collectively rose 4.3% q-o-q and surged 23.3% y-o-y to AED66.40 psf in 2Q2026.

The movement bucks the wider market, as average rent across all Dubai warehouse contracts eased 2.1% q-o-q to AED43 psf last quarter. This comes as warehouse rental volume fell 8.4% q-o-q to 2,835 contracts.

Still, Chestertons points out that both the volume and average price increased 4.3% and 7.3% y-o-y, respectively. Additionally, the total value of warehouse rental contracts reached AED528 million in 2Q2026, representing an annual growth of 7.7%.

The steady momentum in the industrial segment was backed by Dubai’s non-oil economic activity, which stayed firmly in expansion territory even as it eased to its softest pace in over five years due to the US-Iran conflict.

Domestic consumption and government investment bolstered business confidence, while companies opted to hold larger stock buffers to mitigate freight risk, further supporting demand.

With occupancy for Grade A facilities remaining high at around 95%, rents are expected to hold steady in the coming months.

“Until a meaningful volume of new Grade A supply is delivered, competition for well-located and modern warehouse space is expected to remain strong, supporting rental levels across Dubai’s established industrial corridors,” says Chestertons.

Office leasing shifts to smaller footprints

Despite the regional conflict weighing on occupier sentiment, Dubai office leasing volume rose in 2Q2026. A total of 38,898 office rental contracts registered across the quarter, 6.5% higher q-o-q and 15.2% higher y-o-y. Activity was supported by new leases, which rose 18% q-o-q, while renewals dipped 15% over the same period.

However, average office rent stood at AED205 psf in 2Q2026, marginally lower than in the previous quarter. Chestertons attributes this to a larger proportion of smaller, lower-value rental deals, as larger footprint decisions have been deferred in light of the conflict.

This is the second quarter that office rental growth has dipped. Still, Chestertons believes the movement suggests a measured phase of rental growth, rather than the start of a broader correction.

“Demand remains concentrated in prime Grade A assets, where limited availability continues to support rental levels,” the report adds.

Grade A office supply is expected to remain tight, even as new projects are completed in the near term. While around 1.9 million sq ft of office space is scheduled for completion this year, much of the Grade A supply is anticipated to be pre-let or absorbed by existing demand, limiting any significant increase in vacancy, says Chestertons.

To that end, the firm predicts Grade A office rents may improve in the second half of the year as regional conditions settle and business confidence returns.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: grok_cli

### 受地区局势紧张影响，迪拜住宅市场于2026年第二季度降温；零售与工业板块保持稳健

尽管第二季度较为疲软，但韧性基本面及优质供应受限，仍继续支撑部分房地产板块。

据彻斯特顿全球（Chestertons Global）称，2026年第二季度迪拜房地产各板块表现分化，地区地缘政治紧张局势促使市场进入“调整期”。

这家总部位于英国的房地产咨询公司在8月发布的《2026年第二季度迪拜房地产市场报告》中表示，住宅和办公市场在历经多年扩张后，第二季度活动更为审慎，而工业和零售板块则录得韧性表现。

报告称，尽管第二季度更为谨慎，迪拜房地产基本面依然强劲，表现越来越由资产类型、地段和底层需求驱动。

延伸阅读：Cistri：亚洲商场餐饮娱乐领先，特色零售保持强劲

彻斯特顿中东和北非（Chestertons Mena）首席执行官约翰·史蒂文斯（John Stevens）表示：“迪拜物业市场持续展现韧性，但我们现在看到一种更为细腻的转变——市场更趋成熟，各板块表现差异显著。”

住宅活动放缓，但优质板块需求仍在

彻斯特顿表示，迪拜住宅市场2026年第二季度更为清淡，扭转了上一季度录得的“超常涨幅”。2月爆发的美伊冲突带来的市场不确定性延续至第二季度，买家推迟决策。

因此，2026年第二季度迪拜住宅成交量环比下降19%，至36,620宗，同期总成交额下降46%，至879亿迪拉姆（306亿美元）。占活动主体的期房交易上季度约下降15%，二手市场成交下降30%。

按每平方英尺计的价格亦较上一季度回落。2026年第二季度迪拜公寓整体平均售价降至每平方英尺1,814迪拉姆，环比下跌3.1%。

不过，在别墅和联排别墅板块支撑下，价格仍高于2025年第二季度水平。该细分市场均价同比上涨7.7%，至每平方英尺2,339迪拉姆。彻斯特顿指出，棕榈岛（Palm Jumeirah）和酋长山庄（Emirates Hills）等超优质板块在家庭及高净值买家深厚需求支撑下，继续树立价格标杆。

租赁市场方面，2026年第二季度迪拜公寓平均租金为每平方英尺123迪拉姆，环比略降，但与上年大致持平。

延伸阅读：凯德商用新加坡信托净物业收入升8.7%；办公租金续约调升6.5%，零售为4%

迪拜住宅供应预计未来数年将大幅增加。彻斯特顿估计，2027年约有146,400个单位竣工，2028年约120,100个。供应主体为一房公寓和开间，集中在朱美拉村圆环（Jumeirah Village Circle）、商业湾（Business Bay）和迪拜地（Dubailand）等地。

无论如何，彻斯特顿（Chestortons）指出，持续需求叠加地区贸易和旅游业复苏，应有助于新供应逐步被消化。

此外，支持性政府政策预计将改善海外买家活动。其中包括取消通过单独持有物业申请两年期迪拜居留签证所需的75万迪拉姆最低物业价值要求，以及放宽共有住房的最低价值门槛。

零售租金在扰动中保持平稳

尽管冲突扰乱国际旅行和可选消费支出，2026年第二季度迪拜零售物业租金大体平稳。

上季度迪拜录得19,868份零售租赁合约，环比下降14.2%。不过当期平均零售租金为每平方英尺273迪拉姆，略高于2026年第一季度。

按该水平，租金仍处历史高位，2026年第二季度均价同比溢价18.3%。

延伸阅读：丰树置地将把奖励计划与职总英康Link及蚬壳对接，覆盖杂货、电动车充电等

超级区域及优质目的地商场——指迪拜购物中心（The Dubai Mall）和阿联酋购物中心（Mall of the Emirates）等大型零售休闲目的地——继续带动活动，近乎满租，租金处于区间上端。

另一方面，社区型和次级项目面临更具竞争性的租赁环境，需求较低，租户对价格更敏感。

彻斯特顿还强调优质与次级存量差距扩大，反映出零售商更看重能吸引游客和高收入客流的零售目的地。

作为回应，本地发展商正在扩建已获验证的资产。迪拜购物中心业主伊玛尔地产（Emaar Properties）正在名为“The District”的新区新增279个豪华店铺；阿联酋购物中心业主Majid Al Futtaim则推进50亿迪拉姆扩建，将新增约100家店铺。两座商场的扩建分别于2024年和2025年宣布，将分期完工。

尽管如此，彻斯特顿（Chesterton）观察到，迪拜新增零售供应仍然紧张，优质零售空间持续面临强劲需求。

该公司补充称，因此市场有望在消费者信心和访客数字复苏中乘势而上，以较强位置进入下一阶段。

关键工业走廊需求强劲

工业物业市场在2026年第二季度亦录得韧性表现，受迪拜科技园（Dubai Technology Park）、古赛斯（Al Qusais）和杰贝阿里（Jebel Ali）等关键工业走廊仓储需求支撑。这些区域平均租金合计环比上涨4.3%，同比飙升23.3%，至2026年第二季度每平方英尺66.40迪拉姆。

这一走势与更广泛市场相反，迪拜全部仓储合约平均租金上季度环比回落2.1%，至每平方英尺43迪拉姆。同期仓储租赁宗数环比下降8.4%，至2,835份。

不过彻斯特顿指出，宗数和均价同比分别上升4.3%和7.3%。此外，2026年第二季度仓储租赁合约总价值达5.28亿迪拉姆，同比增长7.7%。

工业板块稳健动能得到迪拜非石油经济活动支撑；即便受美伊冲突影响放缓至逾五年最弱步伐，该活动仍稳处扩张区间。

国内消费和政府投资提振商业信心，企业选择持有更大规模库存缓冲以降低货运风险，进一步支撑需求。

甲级设施出租率仍高达约95%，租金预计未来数月将保持平稳。

彻斯特顿表示：“在有意义规模的新增甲级供应交付之前，对区位优越、现代化仓储空间的竞争预计仍将强劲，从而支撑迪拜成熟工业走廊的租金水平。”

办公租赁转向更小面积

尽管地区冲突拖累租户情绪，2026年第二季度迪拜办公租赁量仍有上升。当季共登记38,898份办公租赁合约，环比高6.5%，同比高15.2%。活动受新租支撑，新租环比上升18%，同期续租下降15%。

不过，2026年第二季度办公平均租金为每平方英尺205迪拉姆，略低于上一季度。彻斯特顿将其归因于较小、较低价值租赁交易占比上升，因为冲突背景下较大面积决策被推迟。

这是办公租金增长连续第二个季度回落。但彻斯特顿认为，这一走势表明租金进入审慎增长阶段，而非更广泛调整的开始。

报告补充称：“需求仍集中在优质甲级资产，有限供应继续支撑租金水平。”

即便近期有新项目竣工，甲级办公供应预计仍将紧张。彻斯特顿表示，今年约有190万平方英尺办公空间计划完工，但大量甲级供应预计已被预租或被现有需求吸收，限制空置率显著上升。

为此，该公司预测，随着地区局势趋稳、商业信心回升，甲级办公租金或于下半年改善。