# Has the HDB market decoupled from the private property market?

- **Source:** EdgeProp Singapore
- **Published:** 2026-08-27T07:00:00.000Z
- **Author:** Lee Sze Teck
- **Original:** https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/has-hdb-market-decoupled-private-property-market
- **Topics:** HDB & Public Housing, Private Residential, Government & Policy

## Featured rationale

This divergence may constrain HDB-to-private upgrading, particularly into landed and new condominium segments, while increasing ECs’ importance as a pathway for upward housing mobility.

## AI summary

From early 2016 to 1H2026, private property prices rose 59.9% versus 50.7% for HDB resale flats, widening the upgrading affordability gap.

## Original article

The 2Q2026 figures raised questions over whether the private residential and HDB resale markets had begun to decouple.

In 2026, private property prices continued to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace than in 2025. Meanwhile, HDB resale prices eased for three consecutive quarters.

The widening gap is a concern because HDB owners may have less equity from selling their flats to put towards buying a private home. This could reduce upgrader demand and, in turn, weigh on private home prices.

Explore comprehensive data about all ECs, including the average profit at 5 and 10 years

It could also slow transactions in the HDB resale market and widen the wealth gap between households that can progress up the property ladder and those that cannot.

However, the current divergence is not without precedent. In the previous property cycle, private home prices bottomed in 2Q2017, while HDB resale prices continued to decline until 2Q2019.

Could the divergence lead to a structural shift in the housing market?

The HDB resale and private residential markets are closely linked. Many HDB owners sell their flats and use the proceeds to upgrade to a private home or executive condo (EC).

According to the latest statistics, 77.2% of resident households in Singapore lived in HDB flats in 2025, and 92.3% of these households owned their homes. This large pool of HDB homeowners represents a significant source of demand for private residential property.

From 2017 to 2019, when HDB and private property prices diverged, the number of private home buyers with HDB addresses — a proxy for HDB upgraders — fell from 11,798 to 7,997. At first glance, this decline could suggest that the widening price gap made it harder for HDB owners to upgrade to private homes.

However, in July 2018, the government raised the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) rate for Singaporeans buying their second and subsequent residential properties.

Read also: A Bukit Merah four-room flat just set a record $1,466 psf, while a Pasir Ris flat became the first five-room flat in the town to cross $1 mil

The cooling measure therefore affected buyers based on the number of residential properties they owned, rather than whether they lived in an HDB flat or private property.

Overall transaction volumes in the private residential market, including ECs, declined in 2018 and 2019 following the cooling measures.

Despite the fall in transactions, HDB upgraders continued to account for a fairly stable share of buyers, at around 40% from 2017 to 2019.

A breakdown by type of sale shows a similar pattern. From 2017 to 2019, HDB upgraders accounted for around 46% of buyers in the new private home market and about 35% in the resale and sub-sale market.

This suggests that the divergence between HDB and private property prices did not materially deter HDB owners from upgrading during the period.

The data was also broken down by property type — ECs, landed homes and non-landed homes.

In the EC segment, HDB upgraders accounted for 72.1% of buyers in 2019, up from 61.9% in 2017. The increase was likely supported by the higher income ceiling for buyers of new ECs, which was raised to $16,000 a month in 2019.

Read also: Government raises income ceiling for BTO flats to $16,000, ECs to $18,000 to widen buyer pool

Among buyers of new ECs, the share of HDB upgraders rose to almost 85% in 2019, from 66.4% in 2018.

By comparison, HDB upgraders accounted for a stable share of around 60% of buyers in the resale EC market. In the landed segment, their share remained at around 20% from 2017 to 2019 across sale types, reflecting the higher prices that put landed homes beyond the reach of most HDB upgraders.

In the non-landed, or condominium, market, HDB upgraders accounted for around 40% of buyers over the same period, while buyers with private residential addresses made up slightly more than half.

Reasons behind the stable buyer profile

Government policies and relatively stable private home prices may have helped keep the buyer profile broadly unchanged from 2017 to 2019.

During this period, HDB reduced the supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats, potentially diverting some demand to the resale market and making it easier for existing owners to sell their flats and upgrade. At the same time, the higher income ceiling for BTO buyers may have tempered resale demand.

The impact on the new EC market, however, appears to have been positive. The share of buyers with HDB addresses rose to 84.8% in 2019, even as the average price of an EC unit exceeded $1 million for the first time.

Private home prices were also relatively stable over the period. The average price of a landed home eased 2.9% to $3.7 million in 2019, from $3.8 million in 2017. Non-landed home prices, meanwhile, rose by 3.6% from 2017 to 2019. These relatively modest price movements may have helped keep private homes within reach of HDB upgraders.

Will it be déjà vu in 2026?

After several years of ramping up BTO supply from 2021, the larger pipeline of new flats may be easing demand pressures in the HDB resale market.

In 2Q2026, the HDB Resale Price Index was 0.4% below its 3Q2025 peak. Over the same period, private residential property prices rose by 2.0%.

The question is whether HDB resale prices will continue to ease in the coming quarters or regain their footing. Recent policy changes, such as the removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners buying non-subsidised HDB resale flats, could boost demand and provide some support for resale prices.

Regardless, the key question arising from the divergence between the HDB and private residential markets is whether upward housing mobility can be sustained.

Since 2016, the proportion of HDB upgraders has steadily declined, against the backdrop of a broader shift in Singapore’s housing profile.

In 1995, 95.4% of resident households lived in HDB flats, compared with just 4.6% in private residential properties.

The housing profile has changed significantly, with the share of households living in private residential properties rising to 17.9% against a backdrop of rising household wealth.

The larger share of households already living in private housing may partly explain the decline in HDB upgraders.

Another factor may be the faster appreciation of private home prices. From the beginning of 2016 to 1H2026, private property prices rose by 59.9%, compared with a 50.7% increase in HDB resale prices.

The widening price gap between the two markets may have made it more challenging for some HDB owners to upgrade.

Upgrading to prime condos, landed housing

The landed market has become the most difficult segment for HDB owners to upgrade into. HDB upgraders accounted for just 3.1% of buyers of new landed homes in 1H2026, a record low.

With a new 99-year leasehold terraced house easily costing more than $4 million, the price gap can be difficult to bridge even for owners of million-dollar HDB flats, unless they are able to pool resources with another family.

The decline has been less pronounced for private non-landed homes in the Core Central Region (CCR). However, the data suggests that some HDB upgraders may be trading space for a prime location.

In 2016, the average size of a new CCR private non-landed home purchased by an HDB upgrader was 79.8 sq m (859 sq ft). By 1H2026, this had fallen to 68.1 sq m (733 sq ft).

In the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), the share of HDB upgraders buying new private homes fell to roughly 20% in 1H2026, from around 50% in 2016.

Affordability may be a key factor. Prices of new private non-landed homes in the RCR and OCR have at least doubled since 2016. Over the same period, resale prices of four-room and larger HDB flats rose by slightly more than 50%, widening the price gap between the two markets.

Higher ABSD rates may also have influenced upgrading decisions. The ABSD rate for Singaporeans purchasing a second residential property has risen to 20%, adding to the upfront cost for HDB owners who buy a private property before disposing of their existing flat.

The EC market, meanwhile, remains closely linked to the HDB market because of government eligibility and allocation rules. Around 50% of buyers of new ECs in 1H2026 had an HDB address.

Rethinking the upgrading pathway

Aspiring homeowners who hope to upgrade from an HDB BTO flat to a new private non-landed home may need to think more carefully about their housing strategy.

Plus and Prime BTO flats come with longer minimum occupation periods (MOPs), which could delay an eventual upgrade and reduce flexibility. Buyers of resale Plus and Prime flats must also meet the prevailing monthly household income ceiling of $16,000, potentially narrowing the pool of future buyers. By comparison, a Standard BTO flat may offer greater flexibility for those pursuing asset progression.

Recent changes to EC policy could also strengthen ECs as a stepping stone to private housing. The allocation of new EC units to eligible first-timer families has been raised from 70% to 90%, while the monthly household income ceiling has increased to $18,000, potentially allowing more households to qualify.

As the gap between HDB and private home prices widens, ECs may therefore become increasingly important in supporting upward housing mobility. Under the current policy framework, Standard BTO flats and new ECs may offer first-time buyers greater flexibility for future asset progression.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: grok_cli

### 组屋市场是否已与私人房地产市场脱钩？

随着组屋与私人住宅价格差距扩大，执行共管公寓在支撑向上住房流动方面是否将变得更重要？

2026年第二季的数据引发了私人住宅市场与组屋转售市场是否已开始脱钩的疑问。

2026年，私人房地产价格继续上涨，尽管增速较2025年更为温和。与此同时，组屋转售价格连续三个季度回落。

差距扩大令人关注，因为组屋业主出售单位后可用于购买私人住宅的净值可能减少。这可能削弱升级需求，进而对私人住宅价格构成压力。

探索所有执行共管公寓的综合数据，包括5年和10年的平均获利

这也可能放缓组屋转售市场的成交，并拉大能够沿房产阶梯向上流动的家庭与无法做到的家庭之间的财富差距。

不过，当前的分化并非没有先例。在上一个房地产周期中，私人住宅价格于2017年第二季见底，而组屋转售价格则持续下跌至2019年第二季。

这种分化是否会导致住房市场出现结构性转变？

组屋转售市场与私人住宅市场密切相关。许多组屋业主出售单位，用所得款项升级至私人住宅或执行共管公寓（EC）。

根据最新统计，2025年新加坡77.2%的居民家庭居住在组屋，其中92.3%的家庭拥有自住房。这一庞大的组屋业主群体构成私人住宅物业的重要需求来源。

2017年至2019年，当组屋与私人房地产价格出现分化时，地址为组屋的私人住宅买家数量——作为组屋升级者的代理指标——从11,798人降至7,997人。乍看之下，这一下降可能表明价格差距扩大使组屋业主更难升级至私人住宅。

不过，2018年7月，政府上调了新加坡公民购买第二套及后续住宅物业的额外买方印花税（ABSD）税率。

另读：红山一套四房式组屋刚创下每平方英尺新元1,466元的纪录，而巴西立一套单位成为该镇首个成交价突破新元100万元的五房式组屋

因此，这项降温措施是根据买家拥有的住宅物业数量产生影响，而非其居住在组屋还是私人住宅。

在降温措施出台后，包括执行共管公寓在内的私人住宅市场整体成交量在2018年和2019年下降。

尽管成交下降，组屋升级者在买家中的占比仍相当稳定，2017年至2019年约为40%。

按销售类型细分也呈现类似格局。2017年至2019年，组屋升级者约占新私人住宅市场买家的46%，在转售及期房转售市场约占35%。

这表明，组屋与私人房地产价格的分化在该期间并未实质阻碍组屋业主升级。

数据还按物业类型细分——执行共管公寓、有地住宅和非有地住宅。

在执行共管公寓细分市场，组屋升级者占2019年买家的72.1%，高于2017年的61.9%。这一升幅很可能受到新执行共管公寓买家收入顶限上调的支撑，该顶限于2019年提高至每月新元16,000元。

另读：政府将预购组屋收入顶限上调至新元16,000元、执行共管公寓上调至新元18,000元，以扩大买家群体

在新执行共管公寓买家中，组屋升级者占比从2018年的66.4%升至2019年的近85%。

相比之下，组屋升级者在转售执行共管公寓市场的买家占比稳定在约60%。在有地住宅细分市场，2017年至2019年各类销售中其占比维持在约20%，反映出较高价格使大多数组屋升级者难以负担有地住宅。

在非有地住宅即共管公寓市场，同期组屋升级者约占买家的40%，而地址为私人住宅的买家略超半数。

买家结构保持稳定的原因

政府政策以及相对稳定的私人住宅价格，可能有助于使买家结构在2017年至2019年大体保持不变。

在此期间，建屋发展局减少了预购组屋（BTO）供应，可能将部分需求转向转售市场，使现有业主更容易出售单位并升级。与此同时，预购组屋买家收入顶限提高，可能抑制了转售需求。

不过，对新执行共管公寓市场的影响似乎是正面的。地址为组屋的买家占比在2019年升至84.8%，即便当时执行共管公寓单位的平均价格首次超过新元100万元。

同期私人住宅价格也相对稳定。有地住宅平均价格从2017年的新元380万元回落2.9%至2019年的新元370万元。与此同时，非有地住宅价格在2017年至2019年上涨3.6%。这些相对温和的价格变动可能有助于使私人住宅仍处于组屋升级者可负担范围内。

2026年会否重演旧景？

自2021年起连续数年增加预购组屋供应后，更大的新组屋供应管道可能正在缓解组屋转售市场的需求压力。

2026年第二季，组屋转售价格指数较2025年第三季高点低0.4%。同期，私人住宅物业价格上涨2.0%。

问题在于组屋转售价格在未来几个季度是将继续回落，还是重新站稳。近期政策变化，例如取消私人房地产业主购买非津贴组屋转售单位的15个月等待期，可能提振需求，并对转售价格提供一定支撑。

无论如何，组屋与私人住宅市场分化所引出的关键问题是，向上住房流动能否持续。

自2016年以来，组屋升级者占比稳步下降，背景是新加坡住房结构发生更广泛转变。

1995年，95.4%的居民家庭居住在组屋，仅有4.6%居住在私人住宅物业。

住房结构已显著变化，居住在私人住宅物业的家庭占比升至17.9%，背景是家庭财富上升。

已居住在私人住房的家庭占比更高，可能部分解释了组屋升级者的下降。

另一个因素可能是私人住宅价格升值更快。从2016年初至2026年上半年，私人房地产价格上涨59.9%，而组屋转售价格上涨50.7%。

两个市场之间价格差距扩大，可能使部分组屋业主更难升级。

升级至优质共管公寓、有地住宅

有地住宅市场已成为组屋业主最难升级进入的细分市场。2026年上半年，组屋升级者仅占新有地住宅买家的3.1%，创下纪录低位。

一套新的99年地契排屋轻易造价超过新元400万元，即便是百万组屋的业主，除非能与另一家庭汇集资源，否则这一价格差距也难以跨越。

核心中央区（CCR）私人非有地住宅的降幅则不那么明显。不过，数据显示部分组屋升级者可能在以空间换取优质地段。

2016年，组屋升级者购买的核心中央区新私人非有地住宅平均面积为79.8平方米（859平方英尺）。到2026年上半年，这一数字已降至68.1平方米（733平方英尺）。

在其他中央区（RCR）和中央区以外（OCR），购买新私人住宅的组屋升级者占比从2016年的约50%降至2026年上半年的约20%。

负担能力可能是关键因素。其他中央区和中央区以外的新私人非有地住宅价格自2016年以来至少翻倍。同期，四房式及以上组屋的转售价格上涨略超50%，拉大了两个市场之间的价格差距。

更高的额外买方印花税税率也可能影响了升级决定。新加坡公民购买第二套住宅物业的额外买方印花税税率已升至20%，增加了组屋业主在出售现有单位前先购买私人物业的前期成本。

与此同时，由于政府资格与分配规则，执行共管公寓市场仍与组屋市场紧密相连。2026年上半年，约50%的新执行共管公寓买家地址为组屋。

重新思考升级路径

希望从组屋预购组屋升级至新私人非有地住宅的准业主，可能需要更审慎地思考住房策略。

Plus和Prime预购组屋设有更长的最低居住年限（MOP），可能推迟最终升级并降低灵活性。转售Plus和Prime单位的买家还必须符合现行每月家庭收入顶限新元16,000元，可能缩小未来买家群体。相比之下，标准预购组屋可能为追求资产进阶的买家提供更大灵活性。

近期执行共管公寓政策的变化，也可能强化执行共管公寓作为迈向私人住房踏脚石的作用。分配给符合资格首次购屋家庭的新执行共管公寓单位比例已从70%提高至90%，每月家庭收入顶限也已上调至新元18,000元，可能使更多家庭符合资格。

随着组屋与私人住宅价格差距扩大，执行共管公寓因此可能在支撑向上住房流动方面变得愈发重要。在现行政策框架下，标准预购组屋和新执行共管公寓可能为首次购屋者提供更大的未来资产进阶灵活性。