# HDB resale prices dip 0.2% q-o-q in 3Q2026, while transaction volumes surge: HDB flash estimates

- **Source:** EdgeProp Singapore
- **Published:** 2026-10-01T03:07:10.000Z
- **Author:** Ashley Lo
- **Original:** https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/hdb-resale-prices-dip-02-q-o-q-3q2026-while-transaction-volumes-surge-hdb-flash-estimates
- **Topics:** HDB & Public Housing, Private Residential, Government & Policy

## Featured rationale

The volume surge alongside muted overall prices signals resilient right-sizing demand without broad price escalation, although larger and million-dollar flats may attract stronger buying interest.

## AI summary

HDB resale prices dipped 0.2% q-o-q in 3Q2026 despite transactions surging 17.7% to 7,528 after the 15-month wait-out period was removed.

## Original article

HDB resale prices fell for a third consecutive quarter in 3Q2026. Flash estimates published by HDB on Oct 1 show that the Resale Price Index (RPI) dipped 0.2% q-o-q, narrowing from the 0.3% fall recorded in the previous quarter.

This came despite an improvement in market sentiment and an increase in housing enquiries following recent policy changes, noted Christine Sun, chief research and strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.

On July 28, the 15-month wait-out period was removed for private property owners (PPOs) and ex-private property owners (ex-PPOs) buying a non-subsidised resale flat.

Read also: Five-room flat at Pinnacle@Duxton sets record of $1.72mil; Kallang-Whampoa five-room flat sets town record of $1.59 mil

“Following the policy adjustment, there was a noticeable increase in buying interest and sales enquiries from private homeowners for HDB resale flats looking to right-size,” said Sun.

Resale transactions totalled 7,528 in 3Q2026, marking a 17.7% q-o-q increase.

Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, remarked: “While the PPOs and ex-PPOs were able to buy larger flats from July 28, the effect on prices was relatively muted in 3Q2026, alleviating concerns over outbidding and potential price surge by this group of buyers.”

HDB RPI and transaction volume

Larger flat types drive resale volume

An uptick in sales for larger flat types attributed to the spike in resale transactions, said Eugene Lim, key executive office of ERA Singapore.

A total of 1,822 five-room flats and 535 executive flats were sold during the quarter, up by 23.7% q-o-q and 39% q-o-q, respectively.

Additionally, million-dollar flat transactions also trended upwards in 3Q2026, with 597 resale flats changing hands for at least $1 million during the quarter. These transactions accounted for 8.5% of total resale flat transactions in 3Q2026.

ERA’s Lim noted: “Demand for million-dollar flats could have been driven by cash-flush private homeowners, who now face fewer barriers to entering the HDB resale market.”

Read also: What's moving the market: Singapore's biggest property deals and hottest searches (Sept 25)

Five-room and larger flats formed the bulk, with 353 transactions, up 24.5% q-o-q from 283 in 2Q2026.

Million-dollar flat transaction volume since 2012

Prices of million-dollar flats similarly increased in 3Q20256, with average prices standing around $1.16 million, 1.1% higher than $1.147 million in 2Q2026.

Additionally, the proportion of million-dollar flat transactions in non-mature estates stood at 11.4% in 3Q2026 — the highest thus far, noted Huttons’ Lee.

The most expensive transaction came from the sale of a five-room flat at The Pinnacle @ Duxton for $1.72 million in September, beating the previous record of $1.7 million set just days earlier.

Resale market to “face headwinds”

Realion’s Sun expects the HDB resale market to face headwinds following the increase in the income ceiling for BTO flats. From August 2026, the income ceiling was raised to $16,000 for couples and families and $8,000 for singles.

“The higher income ceiling would allow some to buy larger or pricier BTO flats, thus diverting more buyers away from larger, higher-priced flats in the resale market,” she added.

Read also: Record-smashing $1.701 mil HDB resale: How this Pinnacle@Duxton unit defied the odds

That said, Huttons’ Lee noted government changes to the allocation and distance priority for Primary 1 registration under Phase 2C from 2027. Under phase 2C, 60 places will be set aside, up from 40 currently.

In addition, 12 primary schools in Bukit Timah, Newton and Marine Parade will allocate more places to children living more than 2km away. For these schools, half of the places will be reserved for children living within 2km and the other half for those living beyond 2km.

The changes could benefit HDB resale flats in areas such as Bedok, Bukit Batok, Bukit Merah, Bukit Timah, the Central Area, Clementi, Geylang, Kallang/Whampoa, Marine Parade, Queenstown and Toa Payoh that are located near the 12 schools, according to Huttons.

Still, Lee expects the HDB resale market to bottom in 4Q2026.

The 13,484 flats reaching their five-year minimum occupation period in 2026 could see keen interest, with some centrally located and five-room flats potentially fetching at least $1 million.

Huttons projects resale flat transactions to total between 22,000 and 26,000 in 2026, while resale price movement may be between -1% to 1%.

Meanwhile, ERA anticipates resale transaction volumes to hover around 26,000 and an annual price growth between 2% to 5%.

“This aligns with the Government’s aim for a stable and sustainable HDB resale market, characterised by resilient buyer demand and healthy price growth,” said ERA’s Lim.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: grok_cli

### 建屋发展局初步估算：2026年第三季组屋转售价格环比下跌0.2%，成交量则大幅上升

在取消私人房地产业主及前私人房地产业主购买非津贴组屋的15个月等待期后，2026年第三季转售成交量环比上升17.7%。

2026年第三季，组屋转售价格连续第三个季度下跌。建屋发展局（HDB）于10月1日公布的初步估算显示，转售价格指数（RPI）环比下跌0.2%，跌幅较上一季录得的0.3%有所收窄。

Realion（OrangeTee & ETC）集团首席研究与策略师Christine Sun指出，尽管近期政策变动后市场情绪有所改善、住房查询有所增加，情况依然如此。

7月28日，针对购买非津贴转售组屋的私人房地产业主（PPO）及前私人房地产业主（ex-PPO），15个月等待期被取消。

另请阅读：达士岭（Pinnacle@Duxton）五房式组屋创下172万新元纪录；加冷-黄埔五房式组屋创下159万新元的市镇纪录

Sun说：“政策调整后，希望调整住房规模的私人住宅业主对组屋转售单位的购买兴趣和销售查询明显增加。”

2026年第三季转售成交共计7,528宗，环比上升17.7%。

合登亚洲（Huttons Asia）数据分析高级总监Lee Sze Teck表示：“虽然私人房地产业主和前私人房地产业主自7月28日起能够购买较大的组屋，但2026年第三季对价格的影响相对温和，缓解了人们对这一买家群体竞相抬价以及价格可能飙升的担忧。”

组屋转售价格指数与成交量

较大户型推动转售成交量

ERA新加坡主要执行官Eugene Lim表示，较大户型销量的上升被归因于转售成交的激增。

本季共售出1,822个五房式组屋和535个公寓式组屋，环比分别上升23.7%和39%。

此外，百万元组屋成交在2026年第三季亦呈上升趋势，本季有597个转售组屋以至少100万新元易手。这些交易占2026年第三季转售组屋总成交的8.5%。

ERA的Lim指出：“百万元组屋的需求，可能是由现金充裕的私人住宅业主推动的，他们如今进入组屋转售市场面临的障碍更少。”

另请阅读：是什么在推动市场：新加坡最大的房地产交易与最热门搜索（9月25日）

五房式及更大组屋构成主体，共353宗交易，较2026年第二季的283宗环比上升24.5%。

2012年以来的百万元组屋成交量

百万元组屋的价格在3Q20256同样上升，平均价格约为116万新元，较2026年第二季的114.7万新元高出1.1%。

此外，合登的Lee指出，2026年第三季非成熟市镇的百万元组屋成交占比为11.4%，为迄今最高。

最昂贵的一宗交易来自9月以172万新元售出的达士岭（The Pinnacle @ Duxton）五房式组屋，打破了仅仅数天前创下的170万新元先前纪录。

转售市场将“面临逆风”

Realion的Sun预计，在预购组屋（BTO）收入顶限上调后，组屋转售市场将面临逆风。自2026年8月起，夫妇和家庭的收入顶限提高至16,000新元，单身人士提高至8,000新元。

她补充道：“更高的收入顶限将使部分人能够购买更大或更贵的预购组屋，从而把更多买家从转售市场中较大、价格较高的组屋分流出去。”

另请阅读：破纪录的170.1万新元组屋转售：这套达士岭（Pinnacle@Duxton）单位如何逆势而成

尽管如此，合登的Lee指出，政府将从2027年起调整小一注册2C阶段的学额分配与距离优先安排。在2C阶段，预留学额将从目前的40个增加至60个。

此外，武吉知马、纽顿和马林百列的12所小学将向居住在超过2公里的儿童分配更多学额。对于这些学校，一半学额将预留给居住在2公里以内的儿童，另一半则预留给居住在2公里以外的儿童。

据合登称，这些变化可能惠及靠近这12所学校的组屋转售单位，所在地区包括勿洛、武吉巴督、红山、武吉知马、中区、金文泰、芽笼、加冷/黄埔、马林百列、女皇镇和大巴窑。

尽管如此，Lee预计组屋转售市场将在2026年第四季见底。

2026年达到五年最低居住年限的13,484个组屋可能会受到热切关注，其中部分位于中心地段的五房式组屋或可取得至少100万新元。

合登预测，2026年转售组屋成交总量将介于22,000宗至26,000宗，而转售价格变动可能介于-1%至1%。

与此同时，ERA预计转售成交量将徘徊在约26,000宗，全年价格增幅介于2%至5%。

ERA的Lim表示：“这与政府打造稳定且可持续的组屋转售市场的目标相符，其特点是买家需求具有韧性、价格健康增长。”