# HDB Resale Prices Fall For A Second Straight Quarter — But Million-Dollar Flat Sales Just Hit A Record High

- **Source:** Stacked Homes
- **Published:** 2026-07-24T13:54:53.000Z
- **Author:** Hailey Khoo
- **Original:** https://stackedhomes.com/hdb-resale-prices-fall-for-a-second-straight-quarter-but-million-dollar-flat-sales-just-hit-a-record-high/
- **Topics:** HDB & Public Housing, Transactions & Deals

## Featured rationale

The divergence signals broader price moderation alongside concentrated demand for premium flats, potentially increasing buyers’ bargaining power while supporting values of newer, well-located homes.

## AI summary

HDB resale prices fell 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q2026, their second consecutive decline, while million-dollar transactions reached a quarterly record of 491.

## Original article

The overall price trend in the HDB resale market is on a downward trajectory, but the number of flats that were recently sold for $1 million and higher just climbed to a new high.

According to the latest HDB Resale Price Index (RPI), published on July 24, resale HDB prices fell 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 202.8 in 2Q2026. This follows a 0.1% q-o-q dip in 1Q2026.

It is the first time since 2Q2019 that the index has posted two straight quarterly declines, and with the index essentially unchanged from the 202.9 reading a year ago, the second quarter of this year also marks the first time since end-2019 that the RPI has stayed flat on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis.

The latest housing data points to a market moderating on two fronts: overall price growth has stalled, but transactions at the very top of the price range are becoming more common.

Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex Realty, frames the reading as a continuation of a longer trend rather than a new shock. “The second quarter of 2026 further reflects the HDB resale market’s gradual transition from strong price appreciation to price stability,” she says.

The HDB resale index is now about 0.4% below its peak in 3Q2025, which is still the highest reading on record.

Not every flat type is moving in the same direction

The 0.3% dip is an aggregate of flat types in the secondary market. An analysis of HDB resale transaction data shows the median price of two-room flats rose 1.6% q-o-q in 2Q2026, and executive flats rose 2.1% q-o-q.

On the other hand, the price of three-room and five-room flats moved the other way, recording quarterly declines of 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, four-room flats, which make up close to half of all resale transactions, saw relatively flat price growth of 0.3% q-o-q.

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, attributes the overall softening to a mix of intense competition from the Build-To-Order (BTO) market, a weaker hiring outlook, and prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Overall resale prices posted their second consecutive quarterly decline this year on the back of falling average prices across many towns, amounting to a 0.4% dip for the first half of 2026, a sharp reversal from the 2.5% and 4.2% price gains recorded in the first halves of 2025 and 2024, respectively.

The differing performance of the various flat types echoes what happened in the first quarter, when declines were concentrated at the two extremes of the size range while the three- and four-room segments held up. That pattern has now partially reversed for three-room flats, which suggests the softening is spreading rather than settling into a fixed pattern.

Resale volumes rose from last quarter, but this is still the weakest 2Q since the Covid-19 pandemic

A total of 6,396 resale applications were registered in 2Q2026, up 1.8% from the 6,285 transactions which were recorded in the first three months of this year.

Resale volumes increased across every flat type, with two-room flats up 3.6% q-o-q, five-room flats up 2.9% q-o-q, three-room flats up 2.6% q-o-q, executive flats up 1.9% q-o-q, and four-room flats up 0.5% q-o-q.

Number of Resale Applications by Flat Type

Quarter | 1-Room | 2-Room | 3-Room | 4-Room | 5-Room | Executive* | Total

2Q2025 | 2 | 256 | 1,760 | 3,033 | 1,614 | 437 | 7,102

3Q2025 | 1 | 224 | 1,713 | 3,176 | 1,657 | 450 | 7,221

4Q2025 | 1 | 171 | 1,328 | 2,266 | 1,213 | 277 | 5,256

1Q2026 | 3 | 192 | 1,504 | 2,777 | 1,431 | 378 | 6,285

2Q2026 | 5 | 199 | 1,543 | 2,792 | 1,472 | 385 | 6,396

*Includes Multi-Generation flats. Source: HDB

On a yearly basis, the moderation in the resale market becomes clearer.

Total resale volume fell 9.9% y-o-y against the 7,102 units sold in 2Q2025, turning 2Q2026 into the lowest second-quarter transaction count since 3,426 resale flats changed hands in 2Q2020 during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in Singapore.

Overall, the total resale volume in the HDB market over the first six months of this year was 12,681 units, a yearly decline of 7.4% compared to the 13,692 units transacted in the same period last year.

Buyers gaining ground against sellers is a large part of the story behind the softer readings.

“Buyers may now find themselves with more bargaining power after several years of a sellers’ market. That said, sellers need not slash their asking prices drastically to secure a sale, provided that their flats are valued realistically without excessive Cash Over Valuation (COV),” says Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore.

Central Toa Payoh and Queenstown are pulling further away from the rest of the market

Median resale prices by town show the same geographic split that appeared in the first three months of this year, but this time with greater consistency.

For four-room flats, Queenstown’s median price climbed to $1.04 million and Toa Payoh’s held at $1.02 million, both showing little change from the prior quarter’s million-dollar readings. Bukit Merah followed at $944,000 and Kallang/Whampoa at $918,900.

At the other end, Jurong West ($530,000), Woodlands ($550,000), and Yishun ($545,000) sat roughly half of Queenstown’s level for the same flat type.

The Central Area has crossed the million-dollar mark again since its last milestone in 3Q2025, with the median four-room resale price hitting nearly $1.2 million this quarter. “This return to seven-figure territory was not unexpected, as median prices for four-room flats in centrally located towns like Toa Payoh and Queenstown had reached the million-dollar mark last quarter. This could have raised pricing expectations for similar units in the Central Area,” says Lim.

The five-room segment tells a different story. Queenstown, Clementi, and Toa Payoh, the same towns leading the four-room table, each had too few five-room resale transactions in 2Q2026 for HDB to publish a representative median. Among towns with enough resale volume, Bishan ($978,000) and Kallang/Whampoa ($976,300) topped the chart, while Jurong West ($633,500), Choa Chu Kang ($662,000), and Sembawang ($644,400) sat at the other end, a gap of roughly $330,000 between the highest and lowest median.

“However, the impact has not been uniform. In popular towns, such as Toa Payoh and Queenstown, the influx of newer MOP flats has also expanded the pool of homes likely to reach the million-dollar mark, creating a more bifurcated resale landscape,” notes Lim.

With median resale prices for four-room flats holding at the million-dollar mark in Toa Payoh and Queenstown for a second consecutive quarter, that level increasingly looks like a new pricing floor for those towns rather than a temporary peak.

Median Resale Prices by Town and Flat Type in 2Q 2026

Town/Estate | 1-Room | 2-Room | 3-Room | 4-Room | 5-Room | Executive

Ang Mo Kio | – | * | $425,000 | $638,000 | * | –

Bedok | – | * | $411,300 | $582,500 | $804,000 | *

Bishan | – | – | * | $788,000 | $978,000 | *

Bukit Batok | – | $380,000 | $425,000 | $645,900 | $800,000 | *

Bukit Merah | * | * | $430,000 | $944,000 | * | –

Bukit Panjang | – | – | $4335,000 | $563,900 | $685,000 | *

Bukit Timah | – | – | * | * | * | *

Central Area | – | * | * | $1,194,400 | * | –

Choa Chu Kang | – | * | * | $560,000 | $662,000 | *

Clementi | – | * | $438,000 | $888,900 | * | *

Geylang | – | * | $358,000 | $710,000 | * | *

Hougang | – | * | $450,000 | $621,400 | $720,500 | $983,000

Jurong East | – | * | $410,000 | $559,400 | $721,500 | *

Jurong West | – | * | $404,000 | $530,000 | $633,500 | $795,000

Kallang/Whampoa | – | * | $455,000 | $918,900 | $976,300 | *

Marine Parade | – | – | * | * | * | –

Pasir Ris | – | * | * | $630,000 | $730,000 | $909,000

Punggol | – | $401,000 | $545,000 | $680,000 | $790,000 | *

Queenstown | – | * | $535,900 | $1,035,000 | * | –

Sembawang | – | $385,000 | $511,500 | $595,000 | $644,400 | *

Sengkang | – | * | $545,000 | $641,000 | $680,000 | $858,000

Serangoon | – | – | $450,000 | $670,000 | * | *

Tampines | – | * | $478,000 | $668,000 | $828,000 | $968,000

Toa Payoh | – | * | $375,000 | $1,019,000 | * | *

Woodlands | – | * | $428,900 | $550,000 | $655,000 | $916,500

Yishun | – | * | $428,000 | $545,000 | $690,000 | *

Dashes (“-”) indicate no resale transactions in the quarter. Asterisks (” * “) refer to cases where there are fewer than 20 resale transactions in the quarter for the particular town and flat type. The figures are rounded to the nearest hundred dollars. Source: HDB

Million-dollar transactions hit a new high even as the index falls

A total of 491 resale flats changed hands for $1 million or above in 2Q2026, up 19.5% from the 411 million-dollar deals in 1Q2026 and 18.3% higher than the 415 recorded in 2Q2025. Million-dollar deals made up 7.7% of all resale transactions in the last quarter, up from 6.5% in 1Q2026.

Four-room flats led with 212 million-dollar transactions, followed by five-room flats (183) and executive flats (93); two 3-room flats and one multi-generation flat also crossed the threshold. The count is a new quarterly record, surpassing the previous high of 480 set in 3Q2025.

Toa Payoh again recorded the most million-dollar deals at 66, followed by Queenstown (65), Bukit Merah (64), Kallang/Whampoa (41), and Ang Mo Kio (38). Bedok and Tampines, both mature but non-central towns, each recorded 27 such deals, all involving larger flat types.

“These buyers were likely motivated by the idea of owning a larger home, which could outweigh the trade-off of living farther from the city centre,” says Lim.

Newer flats accounted for the bulk of the segment: 251 of the 491 deals, about 51%, involved units aged 15 years or below. ERA’s research shows a further 121 units, close to a quarter of the total, were between five and seven years old, the age band immediately after a project’s Minimum Occupation Period (MOP). Toa Payoh recorded the most of such deals within that band, with 38 four- and five-room units at Bidadari Park Drive and Alkaff Crescent, near the newly MOP-ed Alkaff CourtView and Alkaff LakeView, selling between $1 million and $1.38 million.

Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, cautions, “this should not be interpreted as evidence of broad based price growth across the resale market. Instead, the increase largely reflects continued demand for a relatively small segment of premium flats with exceptional attributes, particularly those located in mature estates or offering larger floor areas and longer remaining leases.”

Median prices across most flat types held steady or eased in 2Q2026, consistent with the falling RPI, which suggests that the rising number of million-dollar flats is a sign that buyers are still willing to pay up for a specific kind of flat even as the wider market cools.

Twice the number of MOP completions as last year could hit the market in 2026

A broad-based perspective of the HDB resale market suggests that the driving force behind the moderation in the market has not changed from last quarter. An estimated 13,480 HDB flats are due to reach their MOP in 2026, a spike compared to the 6,973 MOP flats in 2025.

Five towns account for about 80% of this year’s completions, led by Punggol (3,222 units, 23.9%), Queenstown (2,405, 17.8%), Tampines (2,133, 15.8%), Toa Payoh (1,594, 11.8%), and Bedok (1,440, 10.7%).

Distribution of MOP Flats by Town in 2026

Town | MOP flats | %

Punggol | 3,222 | 23.9%

Queenstown | 2,405 | 17.8%

Tampines | 2,133 | 15.8%

Toa Payoh | 1,594 | 11.8%

Bedok | 1,440 | 10.7%

Yishun | 456 | 3.4%

Bukit Panjang | 350 | 2.6%

Sengkang | 330 | 2.4%

Geylang | 319 | 2.4%

Sembawang | 310 | 2.3%

Hougang | 285 | 2.1%

Kallang/Whampoa | 243 | 1.8%

Bukit Batok | 221 | 1.6%

Woodlands | 172 | 1.3%

Total | 13,480 | 100.0%

Source: data.gov.sg via ERA Research and Market Intelligence

The incoming MOP supply pipeline does not stop this year. SRI projects roughly 18,000 flats will reach their MOP in 2027 and around 21,000 in 2028, as the larger BTO cohorts completed in recent years work their way through the five-year mark.

PropNex’s own data shows that this effect is already working through the transaction mix. Resale flats with 94 years or more of remaining lease, a proxy for newly MOP-ed units, made up 5.9% of transactions in 2Q2026, up from 4.5% in 1Q2026. “It is likely that flats recently out of their 5-year minimum occupation period had helped to support the resale volume in 2Q2026,” says Wong.

Tampines, Bukit Batok, and Punggol together accounted for about 58% of the 364 newly MOP-ed flats resold in the quarter, and 87 of those, spread across towns including Ang Mo Kio, Toa Payoh, Bedok, and Queenstown, fetched at least $1 million.

Sandrasegeran reads the steady flow of newly MOP-ed flats as deepening the pool of relatively newer resale homes on the market, thereby giving buyers more options across locations and price points, and easing the competitive bidding that had been pushing up prices at well-sought-after flats.

Rental demand up from a seasonal spike

HDB approved 10,002 rental applications in 2Q2026, up 4.9% from 9,535 in 1Q2026, and largely comparable to the 10,066 approved in 2Q2025. Realion attributes the quarterly surge to seasonal factors: tenants returning from their spring break, and renewals or new leases signed ahead of the academic year for some international students starting in the third quarter.

Rents remained highest in the Central Area, with median rents of about $3,300 for three-room flats, $4,600 for four-room flats, and $5,100 for five-room flats. Bukit Batok recorded the highest two-room median at $2,450, while Jurong West and Tampines led the executive flats at $4,000.

Across the full year, Realion forecasts HDB rental prices to hold steady at 1% to 3% growth, with leasing volume reaching 36,000 to 39,000 units.

Analysts broadly agree that the market is heading towards calmer waters

SRI expects HDB resale prices to register a more measured increase of 0.5% to 2% for the full year, with transaction volumes remaining healthy at around 25,000 to 26,000 flats. Likewise, PropNex echoes this sentiment, projecting resale prices to stay broadly stable and potentially rise by up to 1%, with transaction volumes reaching 26,000 to 27,000 flats.

However, Realion cautions that increased competition from new flat supply places downward pressure on prices in many estates. In turn it projects overall resale prices could trend between -1% and 2% in 2026.

“Looking ahead, some further re-pricing may be on the cards for the HDB segment, as buyer sentiment remains closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and employment stability. However, any adjustment is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt, as genuine housing demand continues to keep transaction volumes steady,” says Lim of ERA.

The million-dollar segment looks set to keep climbing regardless of the broader market predictions. PropNex counted 1,050 million-dollar resale flats sold in the year to July 23, already in line with the 1,593 such flats that changed hands across the whole of 2025.

The BTO pipeline will continue to add to that supply. HDB has rolled out 11,644 BTO and 4,320 SBF flats across the first two sales exercises this year, with a further 7,960 BTO units due across seven projects in Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh, and Yishun in October, keeping the full-year BTO target of 19,600 flats within reach.

The combined BTO and SBF supply for the year will be around 24,000 flats, on top of the 13,480 units reaching MOP.

Where resale prices in the HDB market land by the end of this year will likely come down to how quickly the current wave of newly MOP-ed flats gets absorbed, and how much of the October BTO exercise draws first-time buyers who might otherwise have turned to resale.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: grok_cli

### 组屋转售价格连续第二个季度下跌——但百万组屋成交量却创下新高

2026年第二季度，组屋转售价格连续第二个季度下跌，但百万组屋成交量却创下491宗纪录。以下梳理本季度各市镇与户型在价格、成交量及百万成交上的变化。

组屋转售市场的整体价格趋势正走在下行轨道上，但近期以100万新元及以上成交的组屋数量却攀升至新高。

根据7月24日公布的最新组屋转售价格指数（RPI），2026年第二季度转售组屋价格环比下跌0.3%，至202.8。此前2026年第一季度已环比微跌0.1%。

这是自2019年第二季度以来，该指数首次连续两个季度下跌；而指数与一年前的202.9几乎持平，也使今年第二季度成为自2019年底以来，转售价格指数首次在同比基础上持平。

最新住房数据指向市场在两条线上趋缓：整体价格增长停滞，但价格区间最顶端的成交却变得更常见。

博纳产业（PropNex Realty）研究与内容主管黄秀盈（Wong Siew Ying）将这一读数视为更长期趋势的延续，而非新冲击。“2026年第二季度进一步反映组屋转售市场正从强劲的价格升值，逐步过渡到价格稳定，”她说。

组屋转售指数目前约比2025年第三季度的峰值低0.4%，而该峰值仍是有纪录以来的最高读数。

并非每种户型都在同一方向变动

0.3%的跌幅是二级市场上各户型的综合结果。对组屋转售成交数据的分析显示，2026年第二季度两房式组屋中位价环比上涨1.6%，行政型组屋环比上涨2.1%。

另一方面，三房式与五房式组屋价格则反向变动，分别录得环比下跌1.1%与1.0%。与此同时，占全部转售成交近一半的四房式组屋，价格增长相对持平，环比仅升0.3%。

房地产咨询集团Realion（橙易产业与ETC集团，OrangeTee & ETC）首席研究员兼策略师孙莹（Christine Sun）将整体趋软归因于多重因素：预购组屋（BTO）市场的激烈竞争、招聘前景偏弱，以及持续的宏观经济不确定性。

今年整体转售价格录得连续第二个季度下跌，背后是多个市镇平均价格下滑，2026年上半年合计下跌0.4%，较2025年上半年的2.5%与2024年上半年的4.2%涨幅形成鲜明逆转。

各户型表现差异呼应第一季度的情况——当时跌幅集中在面积区间的两端，而三房式与四房式相对抗跌。该格局在三房式上现已部分逆转，显示趋软正在扩散，而非固定成某一模式。

转售成交量较上季回升，但仍是新冠疫情以来最弱的第二季度

2026年第二季度共登记6,396份转售申请，较今年首三个月录得的6,285宗成交增加1.8%。

各户型转售成交量均有上升：两房式环比增3.6%，五房式环比增2.9%，三房式环比增2.6%，行政型环比增1.9%，四房式环比增0.5%。

按户型划分的转售申请数量

季度 | 一房式 | 两房式 | 三房式 | 四房式 | 五房式 | 行政型* | 合计

2025年第二季 | 2 | 256 | 1,760 | 3,033 | 1,614 | 437 | 7,102

2025年第三季 | 1 | 224 | 1,713 | 3,176 | 1,657 | 450 | 7,221

2025年第四季 | 1 | 171 | 1,328 | 2,266 | 1,213 | 277 | 5,256

2026年第一季 | 3 | 192 | 1,504 | 2,777 | 1,431 | 378 | 6,285

2026年第二季 | 5 | 199 | 1,543 | 2,792 | 1,472 | 385 | 6,396

*包括多代同堂组屋。数据来源：建屋发展局（HDB）

按年比较，转售市场的放缓更为清晰。

总转售成交量同比下跌9.9%，对比2025年第二季度售出的7,102个单位，使2026年第二季度成为自2020年第二季度新冠疫情高峰期间新加坡仅有3,426套转售组屋易手以来，成交量最低的第二季度。

整体而言，今年上半年组屋市场转售成交量为12,681个单位，较去年同期成交的13,692个单位同比下降7.4%。

买方相对卖方议价能力上升，是读数走软背后的重要故事线。

“在卖方市场持续多年之后，买方如今可能发现自己拥有更多议价空间。话虽如此，卖方无需大幅砍价才能促成交易，只要其单位估值合理，且没有过高的超过估价现金（Cash Over Valuation，COV），”ERA新加坡关键执行官林恩权（Eugene Lim）说。

市中心的大巴窑与女皇镇正进一步甩开其他市场

按市镇划分的转售中位价，呈现出与今年首三个月相同的地理分化，但这一次一致性更强。

就四房式组屋而言，女皇镇中位价升至104万新元，大巴窑维持在102万新元，两者较上一季的百万读数变化不大。红山紧随其后为94.4万新元，加冷／黄埔为91.89万新元。

另一端，裕廊西（53万新元）、兀兰（55万新元）与义顺（54.5万新元）对同户型的中位价大约只有女皇镇的一半。

中央区自2025年第三季度上次里程碑后再次跨过百万门槛，本季度四房式转售中位价接近120万新元。“重回七位数并不意外，因为像大巴窑与女皇镇这类市中心市镇的四房式中位价上季已达百万。这可能抬高了中央区类似单位的定价预期，”林恩权说。

五房式板块则是另一番景象。女皇镇、金文泰与大巴窑——同为四房式榜单领先的市镇——在2026年第二季度五房式转售成交过少，建屋局未能公布具代表性的中位价。在成交量足够的市镇中，碧山（97.8万新元）与加冷／黄埔（97.63万新元）居首，而裕廊西（63.35万新元）、蔡厝港（66.2万新元）与三巴旺（64.44万新元）处于另一端，最高与最低中位价差距约33万新元。

“不过影响并不均匀。在大巴窑与女皇镇等热门市镇，较新的满最低居住年限（MOP）单位涌入，也扩大了可能触及百万的房源池，使转售格局更加两极分化，”林恩权指出。

随着大巴窑与女皇镇四房式转售中位价连续第二个季度站稳百万水平，该价位越来越像这些市镇的新定价底线，而非暂时高峰。

2026年第二季度按市镇与户型划分的转售中位价

市镇／组屋区 | 一房式 | 两房式 | 三房式 | 四房式 | 五房式 | 行政型

宏茂桥 | – | * | $425,000 | $638,000 | * | –

勿洛 | – | * | $411,300 | $582,500 | $804,000 | *

碧山 | – | – | * | $788,000 | $978,000 | *

武吉巴督 | – | $380,000 | $425,000 | $645,900 | $800,000 | *

红山 | * | * | $430,000 | $944,000 | * | –

武吉班让 | – | – | $4335,000 | $563,900 | $685,000 | *

武吉知马 | – | – | * | * | * | *

中央区 | – | * | * | $1,194,400 | * | –

蔡厝港 | – | * | * | $560,000 | $662,000 | *

金文泰 | – | * | $438,000 | $888,900 | * | *

芽笼 | – | * | $358,000 | $710,000 | * | *

后港 | – | * | $450,000 | $621,400 | $720,500 | $983,000

裕廊东 | – | * | $410,000 | $559,400 | $721,500 | *

裕廊西 | – | * | $404,000 | $530,000 | $633,500 | $795,000

加冷／黄埔 | – | * | $455,000 | $918,900 | $976,300 | *

马林百列 | – | – | * | * | * | –

巴西立 | – | * | * | $630,000 | $730,000 | $909,000

榜鹅 | – | $401,000 | $545,000 | $680,000 | $790,000 | *

女皇镇 | – | * | $535,900 | $1,035,000 | * | –

三巴旺 | – | $385,000 | $511,500 | $595,000 | $644,400 | *

盛港 | – | * | $545,000 | $641,000 | $680,000 | $858,000

实龙岗 | – | – | $450,000 | $670,000 | * | *

淡滨尼 | – | * | $478,000 | $668,000 | $828,000 | $968,000

大巴窑 | – | * | $375,000 | $1,019,000 | * | *

兀兰 | – | * | $428,900 | $550,000 | $655,000 | $916,500

义顺 | – | * | $428,000 | $545,000 | $690,000 | *

破折号（“-”）表示该季度无转售成交。星号（“ * ”）表示该市镇与户型在该季度转售成交少于20宗。数字四舍五入至最接近的百元。数据来源：建屋发展局（HDB）

即使指数下跌，百万成交仍创下新高

2026年第二季度共有491套转售组屋以100万新元或以上成交，较2026年第一季度的411宗百万交易上升19.5%，亦较2025年第二季度的415宗高出18.3%。百万成交占上季度全部转售成交的7.7%，高于2026年第一季度的6.5%。

四房式以212宗百万交易居首，其次是五房式（183宗）与行政型（93宗）；另有两套三房式与一套多代同堂组屋也跨过门槛。该数字为新的季度纪录，超越2025年第三季度创下的前高480宗。

大巴窑再次录得最多百万成交，达66宗，其次是女皇镇（65宗）、红山（64宗）、加冷／黄埔（41宗）与宏茂桥（38宗）。勿洛与淡滨尼同为成熟但非市中心市镇，各录得27宗此类交易，均涉及较大户型。

“这些买家很可能是受拥有更大居所的想法驱动，而这可能压过住得离市中心更远的取舍，”林恩权说。

较新组屋占该板块大部分：491宗中有251宗，约51%，涉及楼龄15年或以下的单位。ERA研究显示，另有121个单位——接近总数的四分之一——楼龄介于五至七年，即项目最低居住年限（MOP）刚满后的年龄段。大巴窑在该年龄段录得最多此类交易，其中38套位于Bidadari Park Drive与Alkaff Crescent的四房式与五房式，靠近新近满MOP的Alkaff CourtView与Alkaff LakeView，成交价介于100万至138万新元之间。

SRI研究与数据分析主管Mohan Sandrasegeran提醒，“这不应被解读为转售市场出现广泛价格上涨的证据。相反，增幅主要反映对相对较小一类优质组屋的持续需求——尤其是位于成熟组屋区、或提供更大面积与更长剩余租约的单位。”

2026年第二季度多数户型的中位价持稳或回落，与下跌的转售价格指数一致，这显示百万组屋数量上升，是买方仍愿为特定类型单位溢价支付的信号，即使更广泛市场正在降温。

2026年满MOP的单位数量可能达去年两倍，并涌入市场

从组屋转售市场的整体视角看，推动市场趋缓的力量较上季并未改变。估计2026年约有13,480套组屋将满最低居住年限（MOP），较2025年的6,973套显著飙升。

五个市镇约占今年满MOP数量的80%，领头的是榜鹅（3,222个单位，23.9%）、女皇镇（2,405，17.8%）、淡滨尼（2,133，15.8%）、大巴窑（1,594，11.8%）与勿洛（1,440，10.7%）。

2026年按市镇划分的MOP组屋分布

市镇 | MOP组屋 | %

榜鹅 | 3,222 | 23.9%

女皇镇 | 2,405 | 17.8%

淡滨尼 | 2,133 | 15.8%

大巴窑 | 1,594 | 11.8%

勿洛 | 1,440 | 10.7%

义顺 | 456 | 3.4%

武吉班让 | 350 | 2.6%

盛港 | 330 | 2.4%

芽笼 | 319 | 2.4%

三巴旺 | 310 | 2.3%

后港 | 285 | 2.1%

加冷／黄埔 | 243 | 1.8%

武吉巴督 | 221 | 1.6%

兀兰 | 172 | 1.3%

合计 | 13,480 | 100.0%

数据来源：data.gov.sg，经ERA研究与市场情报整理

即将到来的MOP供应管道不止于今年。SRI预测约18,000套组屋将在2027年满MOP，2028年约21,000套，因近年竣工的较大批预购组屋（BTO）陆续满五年期限。

博纳产业自身数据也显示，这一效应已在成交结构中显现。剩余租约94年或以上的转售组屋——可视为新近满MOP单位的代理指标——在2026年第二季度占成交的5.9%，高于2026年第一季度的4.5%。“近期刚满五年最低居住年限的组屋，很可能在2026年第二季度支撑了转售成交量，”黄秀盈说。

淡滨尼、武吉巴督与榜鹅合计约占本季度转售的364套新近满MOP组屋的58%；其中87套分布在宏茂桥、大巴窑、勿洛与女皇镇等市镇，成交价至少达100万新元。

Sandrasegeran认为，新近满MOP单位的稳定供应正在加深市场上相对较新转售组屋的池子，从而让买方在地点与价位上有更多选择，并缓和此前推高热门单位价格的竞价压力。

租赁需求因季节性高峰回升

建屋局在2026年第二季度批准了10,002份租赁申请，较2026年第一季度的9,535份上升4.9%，并与2025年第二季度批准的10,066份大致相当。Realion将季度激增归因于季节性因素：租客春假归来，以及部分国际学生在第三季度开学前续约或签订新租约。

租金仍以中央区最高，中位租金约为三房式3,300新元、四房式4,600新元、五房式5,100新元。武吉巴督录得最高的两房式中位租金2,450新元，而裕廊西与淡滨尼在行政型上以4,000新元领先。

就全年而言，Realion预测组屋租金价格将持稳于1%至3%的增长，租赁成交量达36,000至39,000个单位。

分析师普遍认为市场正驶向更平静水域

SRI预计组屋转售价格全年将录得更为克制的0.5%至2%升幅，成交量仍保持健康，约在25,000至26,000套。同样，博纳产业呼应这一看法，预计转售价格大致稳定，并有可能最多上涨1%，成交量达26,000至27,000套。

不过，Realion提醒，新组屋供应加剧的竞争会对许多组屋区价格构成下行压力。因此其预测2026年整体转售价格可能介于-1%至2%之间。

“展望未来，组屋板块可能还有进一步重新定价空间，因为买方情绪仍与宏观经济状况及就业稳定紧密相连。不过，任何调整更可能是渐进而非骤然，因真实住房需求仍使成交量保持平稳，”ERA的林恩权说。

无论更广泛的市场预测如何，百万板块似乎仍将继续攀升。截至7月23日，博纳产业统计年内已有1,050套百万转售组屋成交，已接近2025年全年易手的1,593套同类单位。

预购组屋（BTO）供应管道将继续补充这一供给。建屋局今年前两轮发售已推出11,644套BTO与4,320套剩余组屋（SBF），另有7,960套BTO单位将于10月在勿洛、芽笼、三巴旺、登加、大巴窑与义顺的七个项目推出，使全年19,600套BTO目标仍在可及范围内。

全年BTO与SBF合计供应将约达24,000套，另加上13,480套将满MOP的单位。

今年年底组屋转售价格最终落在何处，很可能取决于当前这波新近满MOP单位被市场吸收的速度，以及10月BTO发售能在多大程度上吸引原本可能转向转售的首次购屋者。