# Home sales set to recover in Q4 with prices seen rising further on new launch momentum

- **Source:** The Business Times
- **Published:** 2026-10-23T10:29:00.000Z
- **Author:** Jeanne Mah
- **Original:** https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/property/home-sales-set-recover-q4-prices-seen-rising-further-new-launch-momentum
- **Topics:** Private Residential, New Launches, Transactions & Deals

## Featured rationale

Nearly 2,000 homes from three major Q4 launches may revive transactions, while higher launch prices could redirect affordability-conscious buyers towards resale private homes and HDB flats.

## AI summary

Singapore private home prices rose 1.4% in Q3 2026, the fastest increase in seven quarters, despite new-home sales falling 44.7% quarter on quarter.

## Original article

[SINGAPORE] Private home prices rose at their fastest pace in seven quarters in the third quarter of 2026 while buying activity slowed considerably, but sales momentum is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter with several major project launches coming to market.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s price index for private residential properties rose 1.4 per cent in Q3, accelerating from 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter and lifting nine-month price growth to 2.8 per cent.

The stronger price growth came despite a pullback in transaction volume, as the lunar seventh month partly curtailed activity while overall sentiment was muted.

The pullback in sales was especially prominent among developers’ new home sales, with 1,183 new private homes (excluding executive condominiums) sold in Q3, down 44.7 per cent from the second quarter. They launched 1,140 units, down 36.1 per cent from 1,783 in Q2.

While Q3 is a seasonally slow quarter, analysts noted that home sales were also lower year on year.

“On a quarterly basis, sales volume slowed across all types of sales in Q3 2026,” said Wong Xian Yang, Cushman & Wakefield’s head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, pointing out that sub-sales fell 16.5 per cent and resale transactions dipped 0.3 per cent on quarter.

Total sales volumes for the first three quarters of 2026 reached 16,707 units, some 16 per cent lower compared to the same period last year, Wong added.

Most expect the year to close with a developer sales tally of 7,000 to 8,000 new units. This would be “a moderation after above-trend sales of 10,815 units in 2025 and is below the five-year average (2021 – 2025) of 8,766 units”, noted Tricia Song, CBRE head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia.

While take-up slowed in Q3, “sales momentum is expected to pick up in Q4”, said Song.

The final quarter will see three major launches – Lucerne Grand in Lakeside, The Serra Residences in Novena and Thomson Reserve in Upper Thomson – collectively adding nearly 2,000 private homes.

Thomson Reserve, a 1,268-unit mega-development in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), will launch on Oct 31 with prices starting at S$2,608 per square foot (psf).

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC), expects Thomson Reserve to lift the overall price index in the fourth quarter, given its size and expected pricing. Since its preview last Saturday (Oct 17), the project has seen 23,000 visitors passing through its show flat doors, with agents expecting to see a strong sales response.

As higher new launch prices raise the bar on affordability, the resale market is likely to get busier. Wong Shanting, head of research at Newmark, said: “Higher new home prices could make resale private homes more attractive to buyers. The removal of the 15-month wait-out period could also steer some private homeowners towards HDB resale flats, particularly those looking to rightsize.”

Consequently, Newmark raised its forecast for combined resale and subsale transactions to 14,000 to 15,000 units, from 13,000 to 14,000, citing higher home completions and the widening price gap between new and resale properties.

Despite a more cautious buying sentiment, limited inventory continues to underpin prices, said Cushman & Wakefield. Unsold inventory rose 26.7 per cent quarter on quarter to 19,076 units, but remained below the 10-year average of 21,498 units.

Cushman & Wakefield’s Wong noted that the stock level continues to support developers’ appetite for land, “although bidding has become more selective”.

Analysts are forecasting that home prices will end the year with a 3 to 5 per cent gain.

Landed homes, and non-landed properties in Outside Central Region (OCR) led price growth in Q3, rising 2.9 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively. Prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) increased 0.3 per cent, while those in the RCR were unchanged.

Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA said that Dunearn House and Lentor Gardens Residences each sold more than 60 per cent of their available units, contributing to the price index’s growth.

Mark Yip, chief executive of Huttons Asia, pointed out that non-landed home prices in the OCR had risen 4.4 per cent in the first nine months of 2026, exceeding the 3.2 per cent increase for the whole of 2025. At the same time, OCR transaction volume fell 27.2 per cent in Q3, which he attributed to “affordability concerns” among buyers.

The rental market, meanwhile, picked up some steam as rents rose 1.3 per cent in Q3, up from 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. The growth was uneven however, driven largely by a 3.1 per cent jump in the OCR mass market, while CCR rents slipped 0.3 per cent.

The vacancy rate for completed private homes increased to 7.2 per cent from 6.4 per cent, following a rise in completed housing stock. Yet leasing activity remained strong, with PropNex highlighting that 28,423 rental contracts were signed in Q3, the highest quarterly figure on record since 1995.

Cushman & Wakefield expects private residential rents to rise by up to 3 per cent in 2026, compared with the 1.9 per cent increase in 2025, “supported by a constrained supply pipeline and steady demand from international students”, Wong said.

He added that 7,783 new private residential units are expected to be completed in 2026, significantly below the 10-year annual average of 10,837 units.

CBRE’s Song, who forecasts 2 to 3 per cent full-year rental growth, cautioned that “leasing may take longer as tenants become more selective and landlords compete for quality occupants, especially amid slower hiring conditions”.

Realion’s Sun said: “AI has reshaped the employment landscape, potentially displacing some workers, while creating new roles and attracting AI-related businesses and talent to Singapore.”

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: grok_cli

### 房屋销售料于第四季度回升，新盘动能下房价料进一步上涨

住宅价格第三季度上涨1.4%，销售放缓；分析师预计全年房价涨幅为3%至5%

【新加坡】2026年第三季度，私人住宅价格录得七个季度以来最快升幅，购房活动则明显放缓，但随着多个大型项目即将入市，第四季度销售动能料将回升。

市区重建局私人住宅价格指数第三季度上涨1.4%，较上一季度的0.5%加快，推动前九个月房价累计涨幅至2.8%。

尽管成交量回落，价格涨幅仍加快；农历七月在一定程度上抑制了交易活动，整体气氛亦偏淡。

销售回落在发展商新盘销售中尤为明显：第三季度共售出1,183套新私人住宅（不包括执行共管公寓），较第二季度下降44.7%。同期推出1,140个单位，较第二季度的1,783个下降36.1%。

尽管第三季度向来是淡季，分析师指出房屋销售同比亦有所下降。

戴德梁行新加坡及东南亚研究主管Wong Xian Yang表示：“按季度计，2026年第三季度各类销售量均有所放缓。”他指出，转售下降16.5%，转手交易环比微跌0.3%。

Wong补充说，2026年前三季度总销售量达16,707个单位，较去年同期低约16%。

多数人预计全年发展商新盘销量将落在7,000至8,000个单位。世邦魏理仕新加坡及东南亚研究主管Tricia Song指出，这将是“继2025年高于趋势的10,815个单位销售之后的放缓，并低于五年均值（2021年至2025年）的8,766个单位”。

Song表示，尽管第三季度认购放缓，“销售动能预计将在第四季度回升”。

第四季度将有三个大型项目推出——湖畔的Lucerne Grand、诺维娜的The Serra Residences，以及上汤姆逊的Thomson Reserve——合计将新增近2,000套私人住宅。

位于中央区其他地区（RCR）的大型项目Thomson Reserve共1,268个单位，将于10月31日开盘，起价为每平方英尺（psf）新币2,608元。

瑞联（橙易产业与ETC）首席研究员兼策略师Christine Sun预计，鉴于Thomson Reserve的规模与预期定价，该项目将推高第四季度整体价格指数。自上周六（10月17日）预览以来，已有23,000名访客走进其示范单位，代理预期销售反应将相当强劲。

随着新盘价格抬高可负担门槛，转手市场料将更趋活跃。纽马克研究主管Wong Shanting表示：“新房价格走高可能使转手私人住宅对买家更具吸引力。取消15个月等候期，也可能促使部分私人住宅业主转向组屋转手单位，尤其是希望换购更合适面积住房的买家。”

因此，纽马克将转手与转售合计交易量预测从13,000至14,000个单位上调至14,000至15,000个单位，理由是完工量增加，以及新盘与转手物业价差扩大。

戴德梁行表示，尽管买气更为谨慎，有限库存仍支撑价格。未售库存环比上升26.7%至19,076个单位，但仍低于十年均值21,498个单位。

戴德梁行的Wong指出，库存水平仍支撑发展商拿地意愿，“尽管出价已变得更为精挑细选”。

分析师预计，房价全年将上涨3%至5%。

有地住宅以及中央区以外地区（OCR）的非有地物业领涨第三季度价格，分别上涨2.9%和2.3%。核心中央区（CCR）价格上涨0.3%，RCR则持平。

ERA首席执行官Marcus Chu表示，Dunearn House和Lentor Gardens Residences各自售出逾60%的可售单位，对价格指数上涨有所贡献。

合登亚洲首席执行官Mark Yip指出，OCR非有地住宅价格在2026年前九个月已上涨4.4%，超过2025年全年3.2%的涨幅。与此同时，OCR第三季度成交量下降27.2%，他将其归因于买家的“可负担性担忧”。

租赁市场方面则有所回暖，租金第三季度上涨1.3%，高于上一季度的0.7%。不过涨幅并不均衡，主要由OCR大众市场3.1%的升幅带动，CCR租金则下跌0.3%。

随着竣工住房存量增加，已竣工私人住宅空置率由6.4%升至7.2%。不过租赁活动依然强劲，PropNex指出第三季度共签订28,423份租赁合约，为1995年以来单季最高纪录。

戴德梁行预计，2026年私人住宅租金最多将上涨3%，而2025年升幅为1.9%。Wong表示，这“得益于供应管道受限，以及国际学生需求稳定”。

他补充说，预计2026年将有7,783个新私人住宅单位竣工，明显低于十年年均10,837个单位。

世邦魏理仕的Song预计全年租金涨幅为2%至3%，并提醒“随着租户更为挑剔、业主竞相争取优质租客，尤其是在招聘放缓的环境下，租赁过程可能拉长”。

瑞联的Sun表示：“人工智能已重塑就业格局，可能取代部分岗位，同时创造新职位，并吸引人工智能相关企业和人才来到新加坡。”