# Looking beyond the headlines in Singapore’s property market

- **Source:** The Business Times
- **Published:** 2026-08-25T07:56:56.000Z
- **Author:** Andy Wong
- **Original:** https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth/wealth-investing/looking-beyond-headlines-singapores-property-market
- **Topics:** HDB & Public Housing, Private Residential, Government & Policy

## Featured rationale

Resilient demand, strong household finances and limited inventory may constrain distress selling and oversupply risks, supporting the forecast 1% to 3% price growth in 2026.

## AI summary

Singapore private home prices rose 1.4% since end-2025, while unsold inventory fell to 15,057 units, 45% below the historical average since 2008.

## Original article

IN A year marked by volatility, the Singapore residential property market has remained relatively stable.

In the private housing market, home prices rose 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter in Q2, moderating from the 0.9 per cent increase in Q1, bringing cumulative private residential price growth to 1.4 per cent since end-2025.

While headlines on softer transaction volumes and the decline in Housing & Development Board (HDB) resale prices for the second consecutive quarter have attracted attention, these developments risk overshadowing the market’s more important story: The structural fundamentals underpinning Singapore’s housing market remain intact.

Importantly, Singapore’s macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive, driven by strong artificial intelligence-related exports and technology demand, leading the Ministry of Trade and Industry to recently upgrade its 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast to 4.5 to 5.5 per cent.

While economic growth alone does not determine property prices, history suggests it matters. Over the past two decades, GDP growth and private residential price growth have shown a meaningful correlation.

Perhaps the strongest pillar of support for Singapore’s property market today is the financial strength of Singapore households.

As at Mar 31, aggregate resident household net worth stood at S$3.34 trillion, representing a 67.5 per cent increase from pre-pandemic levels. This substantial wealth accumulation has strengthened the ability of homeowners to weather economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs.

At the same time, interest rates remain manageable. Although Singapore Overnight Rate Average has rebounded to 1.39 per cent, borrowing costs remain well below levels that many households had prepared for during the recent monetary tightening cycle.

This combination of healthy balance sheets and manageable financing costs reduces the likelihood of widespread distress selling. Unlike previous downturns, homeowners today are entering periods of uncertainty from a position of relative financial strength rather than vulnerability.

Strong household finances also provide an important lens through which to interpret recent transaction data.

In H1, private residential sales by developers fell 9.4 per cent year on year to 4,154 units in H1, while total private residential transactions declined 6.7 per cent year on year.

At first glance, these figures may appear to signal a slowdown in demand. However, one of the reasons driving this decline was on the supply side, as new project launches fell 22 per cent over the same period.

We project private new home sales to range between 8,000 and 9,500 units in 2026, representing a decline of 12 to 26 per cent from 2025 levels. This expected moderation should not be mistaken for a collapse in demand. Rather, it reflects a more limited pipeline of launches and a smaller pool of units available for sale.

This is key because a decline in transaction volumes driven by weakening demand typically signals a deterioration in market fundamentals, which does not appear to be the case here.

In fact, the relatively modest decline in sales in H1 compared with the much sharper fall in new launches suggests that buyer demand has remained broadly resilient despite ongoing market uncertainty.

New initiatives were announced during the National Day Rally, comprising the higher income ceilings for subsidised public housing and additional Build-To-Order ballot chances for first-timer families with children or expecting a child.

While the initiatives could moderate demand for HDB resale flats and private residential properties, particularly in the Outside Central Region or mass-market segment, we view the measures as part of the government’s calibrated efforts to improve housing accessibility and affordability.

Therefore, we do not expect a material shift in underlying market demand and supply dynamics. We maintain our forecast for private home prices to increase by 1 to 3 per cent in 2026, which we view as a healthy and sustainable pace of growth.

Another concern among investors is the increase in the residential supply pipeline.

Physical completions are projected to rise 8.2 per cent to 6,623 units in 2026 (excluding executive condominiums), followed by a further increase of 27.4 per cent to 8,440 units in 2027 and 16.8 per cent to 9,856 units in 2028.

However, even with completions expected to rise over the next few years, completion volumes will remain below the 10-year average of 10,779 units recorded between 2016 and 2025.

More importantly, the indicator to also look at is inventory. Unsold inventory with planning approval fell 7.2 per cent quarter on quarter to 15,057 units at end-Q2, marking the sixth decline in the past eight quarters.

Current unsold inventory levels are 45 per cent below the historical average since 2008 and remain far below the roughly 44,000 units seen during the Global Financial Crisis.

Viewed in that context, the projected increase in completions looks less like a looming oversupply issue and more like a necessary replenishment of an undersupplied market. Consequently, the risk of a severe supply-driven correction appears relatively low, even in the event of an economic slowdown.

Beyond market-level indicators, the recent results of Singapore developers provide additional evidence of the country’s property resilience.

The H1 results from UOL Group and City Developments Limited (CDL) reveal a growing divergence between the performance of Singapore assets and many overseas markets.

While both developers continue to benefit from resilient residential demand and strong occupancy across their Singapore office and retail portfolios, their overseas assets, particularly in the UK and Australia, face ongoing occupancy pressures and capital recycling challenges.

This contrasting performance of domestic and overseas assets highlights a broader trend. Singapore’s property market continues to benefit from stable occupier demand, limited supply, transparent regulation and a supportive economic environment.

These structural advantages have become increasingly valuable as many overseas property markets continue to adjust to changing office demand patterns and tighter capital market conditions.

We remain positive on both UOL and CDL and believe there are potential rerating catalysts on the horizon.

Both developers have a healthy residential launch pipeline of at least 2,200 units in Singapore scheduled for launch from Q4 through 2027.

Given the resilience of Singapore’s residential market and a supportive interest rate environment, we expect sales momentum to remain healthy, barring any material deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook.

For UOL, we believe the proposed rejuvenation of Marina Square could provide a meaningful uplift to its revalued net asset value. For CDL, we expect its ongoing strategic review to provide greater clarity on its future strategic direction, capital allocation framework and value creation road map for shareholders.

Singapore’s property market is not immune to economic cycles, but it enters the current period of uncertainty from a position of considerable strength.

The operating performance of leading developers suggests that the country’s structural advantages continue to support occupancy, rental growth and residential demand, even as several overseas markets face greater headwinds.

For investors, this should provide reassurance that Singapore’s property market can withstand volatility. The real question now is whether its resilience and long-term earnings potential are fully reflected in current valuations.

The writer is senior equity research analyst, OCBC

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: openai_codex_cli

### 透过标题看新加坡房地产市场的深层趋势

GDP增长与私人住宅价格增长显示出有意义的相关性

在充满波动的一年里，新加坡住宅房地产市场保持了相对稳定。

在私人住宅市场，房价于第二季度环比上涨0.5%，较第一季度0.9%的涨幅有所放缓，使私人住宅价格自2025年底以来累计上涨1.4%。

尽管关于交易量转弱以及建屋发展局（HDB）转售价格连续第二个季度下跌的新闻标题吸引了关注，但这些发展可能掩盖了市场更重要的故事：支撑新加坡住房市场的结构性基本面依然完好。

重要的是，在与人工智能相关的出口强劲以及科技需求带动下，新加坡的宏观经济背景仍具支撑力，促使贸工部近期将其2026年国内生产总值增长预测上调至4.5%至5.5%。

虽然经济增长本身并不决定房地产价格，但历史表明它具有重要影响。过去二十年，GDP增长与私人住宅价格增长显示出有意义的相关性。

也许如今新加坡房地产市场最强有力的支撑支柱，是新加坡家庭的财务实力。

截至3月31日，居民家庭总净资产达新币3.34万亿元，较疫情前水平增加67.5%。这笔可观的财富积累增强了屋主抵御经济不确定性和较高借贷成本的能力。

与此同时，利率仍处于可管理水平。尽管新加坡隔夜利率平均值已回升至1.39%，借贷成本仍远低于许多家庭在近期货币紧缩周期中所准备应对的水平。

健康的资产负债表与可管理的融资成本相结合，降低了大范围被迫抛售的可能性。与以往的低迷周期不同，如今的屋主是在相对财务稳健、而非脆弱的状态下进入不确定时期。

强劲的家庭财务状况也提供了一个重要视角，用以解读近期交易数据。

上半年，发展商私人住宅销售同比下降9.4%至4,154个单位，而私人住宅总交易量同比下降6.7%。

乍看之下，这些数字似乎显示需求放缓。然而，推动这一下降的原因之一来自供应端，因为同期新项目推出量下降22%。

我们预计2026年私人新房销量将在8,000至9,500个单位之间，较2025年水平下降12%至26%。这一预期中的放缓不应被误认为需求崩塌。相反，它反映的是推出项目管线更有限，以及可供销售的单位池更小。

这一点很关键，因为由需求转弱推动的交易量下降，通常表明市场基本面恶化，而这里的情况似乎并非如此。

事实上，与新项目推出量更大幅度下跌相比，上半年销售仅温和下降，表明尽管市场不确定性持续，买家需求总体仍具韧性。

国庆群众大会期间宣布了新措施，包括提高受津贴公共住房的收入顶限，以及为有孩子或即将迎来孩子的首次购屋家庭提供额外预购组屋（BTO）抽签机会。

虽然这些措施可能缓和对HDB转售组屋和私人住宅的需求，尤其是在中央区以外地区或大众市场板块，但我们认为这些措施是政府为改善住房可获得性和可负担性而采取的审慎校准努力的一部分。

因此，我们不预期底层市场供需动态会出现重大转变。我们维持私人住宅价格在2026年上涨1%至3%的预测，并认为这是健康且可持续的增长步伐。

投资者的另一个担忧是住宅供应管线增加。

预计2026年实物竣工量将上升8.2%至6,623个单位（不包括执行共管公寓），随后2027年进一步增加27.4%至8,440个单位，2028年再增加16.8%至9,856个单位。

然而，即使未来几年竣工量预计上升，竣工规模仍将低于2016年至2025年间录得的10年平均值10,779个单位。

更重要的是，另一个也应关注的指标是库存。截至第二季度末，已获规划批准的未售库存环比下降7.2%至15,057个单位，标志着过去八个季度中的第六次下降。

当前未售库存水平比2008年以来的历史平均水平低45%，并且仍远低于全球金融危机期间约44,000个单位的水平。

从这一背景来看，预计竣工量的增加不像是迫在眉睫的供应过剩问题，更像是对供应不足市场的必要补充。因此，即使在经济放缓的情况下，由供应驱动的严重调整风险也显得相对较低。

除市场层面的指标外，新加坡发展商近期业绩也进一步证明了该国房地产市场的韧性。

华业集团（UOL Group）和城市发展有限公司（CDL）的上半年业绩显示，新加坡资产与许多海外市场的表现正出现越来越大的分化。

尽管两家发展商继续受益于具韧性的住宅需求，以及其新加坡办公楼和零售组合的高入住率，但其海外资产，尤其是在英国和澳大利亚的资产，仍面临持续的入住率压力和资本循环挑战。

国内与海外资产表现的这种反差凸显了一个更广泛的趋势。新加坡房地产市场继续受益于稳定的租户需求、有限供应、透明监管和具支撑力的经济环境。

随着许多海外房地产市场继续适应办公需求模式变化和资本市场条件趋紧，这些结构性优势变得越来越有价值。

我们仍看好UOL和CDL，并认为未来存在潜在的重新评级催化因素。

两家发展商在新加坡均拥有健康的住宅推出管线，至少2,200个单位计划从第四季度至2027年推出。

鉴于新加坡住宅市场的韧性以及具支撑力的利率环境，除非宏观经济前景出现重大恶化，否则我们预计销售势头将保持健康。

对于UOL，我们认为滨海广场拟议中的焕新计划可能为其重估净资产值带来有意义的提升。对于CDL，我们预计其正在进行的战略评估将为其未来战略方向、资本配置框架以及为股东创造价值的路线图提供更大清晰度。

新加坡房地产市场并非不受经济周期影响，但它是在相当强势的位置进入当前不确定时期的。

领先发展商的运营表现表明，即使多个海外市场面临更大逆风，新加坡的结构性优势仍继续支撑入住率、租金增长和住宅需求。

对投资者而言，这应能提供信心，即新加坡房地产市场能够承受波动。现在真正的问题是，其韧性和长期盈利潜力是否已充分反映在当前估值中。

作者是华侨银行高级股票研究分析师