# NDR 2026: November BTO demand could rise with higher income ceiling; but resale market impact limited, say analysts

- **Source:** Channel NewsAsia
- **Published:** 2026-08-23T15:51:00.000Z
- **Author:** Erin Liam
- **Original:** https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/income-ceiling-raised-bto-exercise-demand-hdb-ec-ndr-2026-6336231
- **Topics:** HDB & Public Housing, Government & Policy, Transactions & Deals

## Featured rationale

The wider eligibility pool may lift demand for November BTO flats and primary ECs, while analysts expect limited impact on HDB resale demand.

## AI summary

Singapore will raise monthly income ceilings from S$14,000 to S$16,000 for BTO flats and from S$16,000 to S$18,000 for executive condominiums.

## Original article

SINGAPORE: A higher monthly household income ceiling for Build-to-Order (BTO) flats could boost demand in the upcoming November exercise due to the wider pool of eligible buyers, analysts said on Sunday (Aug 23). However, the change may not necessarily divert buyers from the resale Housing and Development Board (HDB) market, they added. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced at the National Day Rally that the income ceiling for new subsidised HDB flats will rise from S$14,000 (US$11,000) to S$16,000 to ensure that the vast majority of Singaporeans can continue to access subsidised public housing. Correspondingly, the income ceiling for eligible single HDB home buyers aged 35 and above, will also be raised from S$7,000 to S$8,000. CEO of Propnex Kelvin Fong said raising the monthly household income ceiling helps public housing keep pace with income growth. “The higher income ceiling will expand the pool of households eligible to purchase new BTO flats, allowing more middle-income families to access subsidised housing. “This comes against the backdrop of HDB's sustained ramp-up in BTO flat supply over the past few years. We expect that this policy change could boost demand for new flats with possibly stronger interest for well-located BTO projects,” he said. The median monthly household income in Singapore rose to S$12,446 last year, up from S$11,558 the year before, an increase of 6.8 per cent after adjusting for inflation. To give potential flat buyers sufficient time to review their housing plans and apply for an HFE letter under the revised ceilings, the next Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise will be held in November instead of October.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Group, said the application rate for the upcoming exercise may fall between 3.5 and 4.0 – higher than the rate of 3.4 in the June exercise. In November, HDB will offer around 7,960 BTO flats across seven projects. Among these, the two projects at Bedok and another project at Toa Payoh are likely to be more popular, he said. He estimated that the application for a four-room flat in Toa Payoh among first-timers may be between three and four, due to the large number of flats, while the application rate among first-timers for each four-room flat in Bedok may be between two and three. If demand in November increases “much more than expected”, BTO supply in 2027 should be higher, he added. With the increase in income ceiling, households could potentially obtain a bigger loan from HDB, allowing them to have a larger budget for their purchase, said Mr Marcus Chu, CEO at ERA Singapore. “The increase in maximum loan amount will also allow families to pay less cash for their HDB flat. As a result, households will have more liquid funds for renovations, stamp duty, and other housing expenses, easing their financial burden,” he said.

IMPACT ON RESALE MARKET Analysts said the raised income ceiling might not necessarily divert significant demand away from the resale HDB market. Propnex’s Mr Fong said BTO and resale buyers typically have different priorities, with resale flats appealing to those who need move-in ready homes or a preference for specific locations. “The resale market also serves a wider pool of buyers, including singles seeking a larger flat and permanent residents, which should continue to underpin resale demand. “Hence, from a market perspective, we do not expect the policy revision to exert significant impact on the HDB resale market,” he said. The HDB resale market has shown signs of stabilising following several years of strong price growth. HDB resale prices have fallen for two consecutive quarters since the start of the year. Huttons’ Mr Lee said the revision in income ceiling for BTO flats may potentially siphon demand from the resale market as these higher-income first-time buyers have more options. However, some first-time buyers, including those with a higher income, may still apply for the CPF Housing Grant to buy a resale flat, providing some level of support to the resale market, he added. Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at Mogul.sg, said whether the raised income ceiling will eventually lead to cooler demand in the HDB resale market will depend on the supply of BTO flats. “If the government does not raise the supply of BTO flats, including those in the popular estates, then some buyers will eventually return to the HDB resale market,” he said. HDB said in January that it would launch 19,600 flats this year. It added that it remained on track to offer about 55,000 flats from 2025 to 2027 to meet sustained housing demand.

EXECUTIVE CONDOMINIUMS For executive condominiums (ECs), the income ceiling will rise from S$16,000 to S$18,000. Mr Mak said an increase in the eligibility income ceiling for primary EC buyers, or those who buy from the developers, will typically raise the demand for this housing type. The government in May implemented policies that may curb demand for EC projects that are affected by the new policies, he said. For all EC Government Land Sales (GLS) sites with tender closing dates on or after May 8, the minimum occupation period (MOP) will be raised from five years to 10 years, and the deferred payment scheme will be removed. “I believe that the effects of the curbs on the demand for EC units are stronger than that of the increase in income ceiling. “Just like the introduction of the HDB classifications of Prime and Plus flats with the 10-year MOP had moderated the demand for these flats in the popular locations, the tighter EC market restrictions could bring some stability to the EC primary market and improve housing affordability,” he said. Five new projects that are not affected by the new curbs will be launched by developers in the next 18 months. Mr Mak said the developers will benefit from the new higher income ceiling and may raise their launch prices. Propnex’s Mr Fong said the higher income ceiling should enlarge the pool of eligible buyers and support demand alongside recent EC policy changes, which will see 90 per cent of units reserved for first-time buyers for the first two years after launch. “However, the ability to translate a broader demand pool into stronger sales will still depend on keeping the overall price quantum within the purchasing power of prospective buyers,” he added.

BALLOT CHANCES Additionally, the prime minister announced that from the February 2027 sales exercise, first-timer families will receive one additional ballot chance for each Singaporean child aged 18 and below, including a child they are expecting. Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, said the greater priority for families, especially those with children, will help more families secure their homes earlier. By providing housing stability early, alongside other parenthood and marriage policies, this could help support population growth, she said. However, she noted that the increased ballot chances may not have a big impact on the market since the number of people affected may not be large. ERA’s Mr Chu said that while the extra ballot might encourage some large families to apply for more popular BTO projects, a major shift in preference is unlikely. Families are more likely to prioritise factors such as proximity to public transport, schools, supermarkets and hawker centres, rather than a project's popularity, he said. A notable increase in applications for larger flats is also unlikely, since large households naturally apply for bigger flats. "However, the extra ballot would give households with multiple young children a higher chance of success. As a result, households without children or with fewer young children might find it advantageous to apply for smaller flats," he said.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: openai_codex_cli

### NDR 2026：收入顶限提高或推升 11 月 BTO 需求；但分析师称对转售市场影响有限

一名分析师表示，Bedok 的两个项目以及 Toa Payoh 的另一个项目可能会在 11 月的预购组屋销售活动中更受欢迎。

新加坡：分析师周日（8 月 23 日）表示，预购组屋（BTO）每月家庭收入顶限提高，可能会因符合资格买家群体扩大而推升即将到来的 11 月销售活动需求。不过，他们补充说，这一调整未必会把买家从建屋发展局（HDB）组屋转售市场分流出来。总理 Lawrence Wong 在国庆群众大会上宣布，新补贴 HDB 组屋的收入顶限将从 S$14,000（US$11,000）提高至 S$16,000，以确保绝大多数新加坡人能够继续获得补贴公共住房。相应地，35 岁及以上符合资格的单身 HDB 购屋者收入顶限也将从 S$7,000 提高至 S$8,000。Propnex 首席执行官 Kelvin Fong 表示，提高每月家庭收入顶限有助于公共住房跟上收入增长。“更高的收入顶限将扩大有资格购买新 BTO 组屋的家庭群体，让更多中等收入家庭能够获得补贴住房。“这发生在过去几年 HDB 持续增加 BTO 组屋供应的背景下。我们预计，这项政策调整可能会推升新组屋需求，位置优越的 BTO 项目兴趣或会更强，”他说。新加坡每月家庭收入中位数去年升至 S$12,446，高于前一年的 S$11,558，经通胀调整后增加 6.8%。为让潜在组屋买家有充足时间重新审视住房计划，并在修订后的顶限下申请 HFE 信函，下一次预购组屋（BTO）销售活动将于 11 月而非 10 月举行。

Huttons Group 数据分析高级董事 Lee Sze Teck 先生表示，即将到来的销售活动申请率可能介于 3.5 至 4.0，高于 6 月销售活动的 3.4。11 月，HDB 将在七个项目中推出约 7,960 套 BTO 组屋。他说，其中 Bedok 的两个项目以及 Toa Payoh 的另一个项目可能会更受欢迎。他估计，由于组屋数量较多，首次购屋者对 Toa Payoh 四房式组屋的申请率可能介于三至四之间，而首次购屋者对 Bedok 每套四房式组屋的申请率可能介于二至三之间。他补充说，如果 11 月需求“远高于预期”，2027 年的 BTO 供应应会提高。ERA Singapore 首席执行官 Marcus Chu 先生表示，随着收入顶限提高，家庭有可能从 HDB 获得更大贷款，从而拥有更高购屋预算。“最高贷款额的提高也将让家庭为其 HDB 组屋支付更少现金。因此，家庭将有更多流动资金用于装修、印花税和其他住房开支，减轻其财务负担，”他说。

对转售市场的影响 分析师表示，收入顶限提高未必会把大量需求从 HDB 组屋转售市场分流出去。Propnex 的 Fong 先生表示，BTO 和转售买家通常有不同优先事项，转售组屋吸引那些需要可立即入住住房或偏好特定地点的人。“转售市场也服务于更广泛的买家群体，包括寻求更大组屋的单身人士和永久居民，这应会继续支撑转售需求。“因此，从市场角度来看，我们不预计这项政策修订会对 HDB 转售市场产生重大影响，”他说。HDB 转售市场在经历数年强劲价格增长后已显示出稳定迹象。自今年初以来，HDB 转售价格已连续两个季度下跌。Huttons 的 Lee 先生表示，BTO 组屋收入顶限修订可能会从转售市场分流需求，因为这些较高收入的首次购屋者拥有更多选择。不过，他补充说，一些首次购屋者，包括收入较高者，仍可能申请 CPF Housing Grant 购买转售组屋，从而为转售市场提供一定支撑。Mogul.sg 首席研究官 Nicholas Mak 先生表示，收入顶限提高最终是否会导致 HDB 转售市场需求降温，将取决于 BTO 组屋供应。“如果政府不提高 BTO 组屋供应，包括热门市镇的供应，那么一些买家最终会回到 HDB 转售市场，”他说。HDB 今年 1 月表示，今年将推出 19,600 套组屋。它补充说，仍按计划在 2025 年至 2027 年期间推出约 55,000 套组屋，以满足持续的住房需求。

执行共管公寓 对于执行共管公寓（EC），收入顶限将从 S$16,000 提高至 S$18,000。Mak 先生表示，提高 EC 首次买家或从发展商购房者的资格收入顶限，通常会提高这一住房类型的需求。他说，政府 5 月实施的政策可能会抑制受新政策影响的 EC 项目需求。对于所有招标截止日期在 5 月 8 日或之后的 EC 政府售地计划（GLS）地块，最低居住年限（MOP）将从五年提高至 10 年，并取消递延付款计划。“我认为，限制措施对 EC 单位需求的影响强于收入顶限提高的影响。“就像引入 Prime 和 Plus 组屋分类并配以 10 年 MOP 缓和了热门地点这些组屋的需求一样，更严格的 EC 市场限制可能会为 EC 一级市场带来一些稳定，并改善住房可负担性，”他说。未来 18 个月内，发展商将推出五个不受新限制影响的新项目。Mak 先生表示，发展商将受益于新的更高收入顶限，并可能提高其开盘价格。Propnex 的 Fong 先生表示，更高收入顶限应扩大符合资格买家群体，并与近期 EC 政策调整一起支撑需求；根据这些调整，项目推出后前两年将有 90% 单位预留给首次购屋者。“不过，能否把更广泛的需求群体转化为更强销售，仍将取决于整体价格总额能否维持在潜在买家的购买力范围内，”他补充说。

抽签机会 此外，总理宣布，从 2027 年 2 月销售活动起，首次购屋家庭每有一名 18 岁及以下的新加坡籍子女，包括正在孕育中的孩子，将获得一次额外抽签机会。Realion（OrangeTee & ETC）Group 首席研究员兼策略师 Christine Sun 女士表示，给予家庭尤其是有子女家庭更高优先权，将帮助更多家庭更早获得自己的住房。她说，通过尽早提供住房稳定性，并配合其他鼓励为人父母和婚姻的政策，这可能有助于支持人口增长。不过，她指出，增加抽签机会可能不会对市场产生很大影响，因为受影响人数可能不多。ERA 的 Chu 先生表示，虽然额外抽签机会可能鼓励一些大家庭申请更热门的 BTO 项目，但偏好出现重大转变的可能性不大。他说，家庭更可能优先考虑靠近公共交通、学校、超市和小贩中心等因素，而不是项目受欢迎程度。较大型组屋申请显著增加的可能性也不大，因为大家庭自然会申请较大组屋。"不过，额外抽签机会将让有多名年幼子女的家庭拥有更高成功机会。因此，没有子女或年幼子女较少的家庭可能会发现申请较小组屋更有优势，"他说。