# Private home prices rise 1.4% despite weakest 3Q new-home sales since 1998: URA flash estimates

- **Source:** EdgeProp Singapore
- **Published:** 2026-10-01T04:30:23.000Z
- **Author:** EdgeProp Singapore
- **Original:** https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/private-home-prices-rise-14-despite-weakest-3q-new-home-sales-1998-ura-flash-estimates
- **Topics:** Private Residential, New Launches, Government & Policy

## Featured rationale

The divergence signals price growth driven by fewer launches and a greater share of higher-value transactions, while upcoming supply and higher interest rates may shape demand.

## AI summary

Private home prices rose 1.4% in 3Q2026 despite new-home sales falling to about 1,100 units, the weakest third-quarter volume since 1998.

## Original article

URA's flash estimates showed private home prices rose 1.4% in 3Q2026, up from 0.5% the previous quarter.

It marked the eighth consecutive quarter of price gains and the fastest quarterly increase in almost two years, says Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group. The last time prices rose faster was in 4Q2024, when they increased 2.3%.

“Overall, prices grew faster due to a bigger proportion of private homes sold at a higher price,” says Sun.

Search for the latest New Launches, to find out the transaction prices and available units

For instance, the proportion of private homes, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), sold for at least $2 million rose from 49.2% in 2Q2026 to 53.6% in 3Q2026, according to Realion.

The shift was even more pronounced in the new sale market, where the share of transactions of at least $2 million surged from 52.3% to 71.7% over the same period, Sun notes.

Private home prices have risen 2.8% in the first nine months of 2026.

Landed homes, OCR lead price gains

The main driver of the price increase in 3Q2026 was the landed housing segment, where prices rose 2.8%, following a 2.5% increase in 2Q2026.

Non-landed home prices increased 0.9%, reversing the 0.1% decline in the preceding quarter.

Among the three market segments, the Outside Central Region (OCR) recorded the strongest price growth at 2.2%, reversing a 0.1% decline in 2Q2026. Huttons Asia attributes the increase partly to higher price benchmarks set by projects such as Vela Bay.

Prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) edged up 0.2%, following a 1.2% decline in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, Core Central Region (CCR) prices slipped 0.1%, reversing the 1.8% growth recorded in 2Q2026.

Read also: Amberwood at Holland sells 11% of units on launch weekend, averaging $3,019 psf

URA private property price index for 2Q2026 vs 3Q2026

Launches and sales fell sharply in 3Q2026

Major condominium projects launched during the quarter included the 212-unit Amberwood at Holland, 380-unit Dunearn House and 499-unit Lentor Gardens Residences.

Two boutique projects, the 20-unit Duet @ Emily on Mount Emily and the 27-unit The Bronze on Boon Teck Road, were also launched during the quarter, according to SRI.

Launch activity was constrained by the Lunar Seventh Month, says Huttons. An estimated 1,100 units were launched for sale in 3Q2026, 38.3% fewer than in the previous quarter and 73.8% lower than a year ago. According to Huttons, this was the lowest number of units launched in a third quarter.

The limited supply of new launches also weighed on developers' sales. Based on Huttons Data Analytics estimates, about 1,100 new homes were sold in 3Q2026, down 48.6% q-o-q and 66.4% y-o-y.

As developers' sales are supply-led, fewer launches led to correspondingly lower transaction volumes, says Mark Yip, CEO of Huttons Asia.

He adds that uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran truce also prompted some buyers to delay their purchases while awaiting greater clarity. The estimated 1,100 new homes sold made 3Q2026 “the lowest number of units sold in the third quarter of the year since 1998”, according to Yip.

Read also: Sim Lian Group to preview Amberwood at Holland on Sept 11, with prices starting from $2,921 psf

Sales down 46.6% in first nine months

In the first nine months of 2026, developers launched an estimated 4,727 units, 46.6% fewer than in the same period last year. An estimated 5,254 units were sold over the same period, down 33.3% year on year.

Huttons estimates private housing demand in the OCR fell 39.2%, partly due to affordability concerns. Demand in the RCR fell 26.3%, while demand in the CCR rose 1.2%.

Across the primary and secondary markets, sales volume totalled about 4,300 units in 3Q2026, down 30% from 6,148 units in the previous quarter.

Huttons says some buyers also paused their purchases as they digested several recent policy changes affecting the housing market, including the removal of the 15-month wait-out period and changes to the Primary 1 Phase 2C allocation framework from 2027.

More launches expected in 4Q2026

Activity could rebound sharply in the final quarter, when several large projects are scheduled for launch.

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“The final quarter of 2026 will likely see a noticeable surge in transactions due to the highly anticipated line-up of blockbuster launches,” says Sun.

These include the 570-unit Lucerne Grand, the 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve and the 133-unit The Serra, which will collectively introduce about 2,000 new private homes.

Sun says the 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve could also influence the overall private residential price index in 4Q2026. Located in the RCR, the project is expected to be priced above $2,600 psf.

“The massive volume and premium city-fringe pricing from this project alone may lead to an uplift in the overall private property price index in 4Q2026,” she says.

However, higher interest rates could temper demand. In September, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since July 2023.

“Nevertheless, some buyers may exercise caution as interest rates could continue to rise in the months ahead,” says Sun.

Labour risks, generational wealth

Domestic economic conditions are another risk. Knight Frank Singapore head of research Leonard Tay says “an eye needs to be kept on the labour market”.

While unemployment remains low, retrenchments increased from 3,830 in 1Q2026 to 4,620 in 2Q2026, with layoffs concentrated in sectors such as manufacturing, information and communications, and financial services.

“There is a sense of uncertainty creeping into the labour market with the proliferation of AI-related disruptors in several industries,” says Tay. “Should job security be undermined, prospective homebuyers might hold off on making a purchase and adopt a more cautious wait-and-see posture.”

At the same time, intergenerational transfers of housing wealth are creating another source of demand in the residential market, says Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore.“We are seeing older homeowners right-size and unlock equity from properties that have appreciated significantly, while some younger buyers receive family support for their first or next home,” he notes.

“It also helps explain why purchasing power has remained relatively resilient even as home prices and affordability pressures have increased.”

For the full year, SRI head of research and data analytics Mohan Sandrasegeran expects private residential prices to increase by about 3% to 3.5% in 2026, broadly in line with the 3.3% increase recorded in 2025.

“We expect price growth to remain relatively measured in the final quarter,” says Sandrasegeran. “A broader pipeline of new launches in 4Q2026 should provide homebuyers with greater choice across different locations and price points.”

Check out the latest listings for Amberwood At Holland, Dunearn House, Lentor Gardens Residences properties

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: openai_codex_cli

### 尽管第三季度新房销售创 1998 年以来最弱，私人住宅价格仍上涨 1.4%：URA 初步估算

2026 年第三季度的价格增长是自 2024 年第四季度上涨 2.3% 以来最快的一次。

市区重建局（URA）的初步估算显示，私人住宅价格在 2026 年第三季度上涨 1.4%，高于上一季度的 0.5%。

Realion（OrangeTee & ETC）Group 首席研究员兼策略师 Christine Sun 表示，这标志着价格连续第八个季度上涨，也是近两年来最快的季度涨幅。上一次价格涨得更快是在 2024 年第四季度，当时上涨 2.3%。

Sun 表示：“整体而言，价格上涨更快，是因为以较高价格售出的私人住宅比例更大。”

搜索最新新盘，以了解成交价格和可售单位

例如，根据 Realion 的数据，不包括执行共管公寓（EC）在内，售价至少 200 万新元的私人住宅比例从 2026 年第二季度的 49.2% 上升至 2026 年第三季度的 53.6%。

Sun 指出，在新房销售市场中，这一转变更加明显，同期至少 200 万新元交易的占比从 52.3% 跃升至 71.7%。

2026 年前九个月，私人住宅价格已上涨 2.8%。

有地住宅、OCR 领涨价格

2026 年第三季度价格上涨的主要推动力是有地住宅板块，该板块价格上涨 2.8%，此前在 2026 年第二季度上涨 2.5%。

非有地住宅价格上涨 0.9%，扭转了上一季度 0.1% 的跌幅。

在三大市场分区中，中央区以外（OCR）录得最强价格增长，上涨 2.2%，扭转了 2026 年第二季度 0.1% 的跌幅。Huttons Asia 将该增长部分归因于 Vela Bay 等项目设立了更高的价格基准。

中央区边缘（RCR）价格小幅上涨 0.2%，此前一季度下跌 1.2%。

与此同时，核心中央区（CCR）价格下滑 0.1%，扭转了 2026 年第二季度录得的 1.8% 增长。

另读：Holland 的 Amberwood 开盘周末售出 11% 单位，均价每平方英尺 3,019 新元

URA 2026 年第二季度与 2026 年第三季度私人房地产价格指数对比

第三季度推出和销售大幅下滑

本季度推出的主要公寓项目包括 212 个单位的 Amberwood at Holland、380 个单位的 Dunearn House 和 499 个单位的 Lentor Gardens Residences。

根据 SRI 的资料，本季度还推出了两个精品项目，分别是位于 Mount Emily 的 20 个单位 Duet @ Emily，以及位于 Boon Teck Road 的 27 个单位 The Bronze。

Huttons 表示，新盘推出活动受到农历七月限制。2026 年第三季度估计有 1,100 个单位推出销售，较上一季度减少 38.3%，较一年前减少 73.8%。根据 Huttons 的说法，这是第三季度推出单位数的最低水平。

新盘供应有限也拖累了发展商销售。根据 Huttons Data Analytics 的估算，2026 年第三季度约售出 1,100 套新住宅，环比下降 48.6%，同比下降 66.4%。

Huttons Asia 首席执行官 Mark Yip 表示，由于发展商销售由供应带动，较少的新盘推出导致成交量相应降低。

他补充说，围绕美伊停火的不确定性也促使一些买家推迟购买，等待更清晰的局势。Yip 表示，估计售出的 1,100 套新住宅使 2026 年第三季度成为“自 1998 年以来全年第三季度售出单位数最低的一季”。

另读：Sim Lian Group 将于 9 月 11 日预展 Amberwood at Holland，售价从每平方英尺 2,921 新元起

前九个月销售下滑 46.6%

2026 年前九个月，发展商估计推出 4,727 个单位，较去年同期减少 46.6%。同期估计售出 5,254 个单位，同比下降 33.3%。

Huttons 估计，OCR 的私人住宅需求下降 39.2%，部分原因是可负担性担忧。RCR 需求下降 26.3%，而 CCR 需求上升 1.2%。

在一手和二手市场合计，2026 年第三季度销售量总计约 4,300 个单位，较上一季度的 6,148 个单位下降 30%。

Huttons 表示，一些买家也暂停购买，以消化近期影响住宅市场的多项政策变化，包括取消 15 个月等候期，以及从 2027 年起对小学一年级 Phase 2C 分配框架的调整。

2026 年第四季度预计将有更多新盘推出

最后一个季度活动可能大幅反弹，届时多个大型项目计划推出。

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Sun 表示：“2026 年最后一个季度，由于一系列备受期待的重磅新盘推出，交易量很可能会明显激增。”

这些项目包括 570 个单位的 Lucerne Grand、1,268 个单位的 Thomson Reserve 和 133 个单位的 The Serra，合计将推出约 2,000 套新的私人住宅。

Sun 表示，1,268 个单位的 Thomson Reserve 也可能影响 2026 年第四季度整体私人住宅价格指数。该项目位于 RCR，预计售价将高于每平方英尺 2,600 新元。

她表示：“仅该项目庞大的体量和高端城市边缘定价，就可能带动 2026 年第四季度整体私人房地产价格指数上行。”

不过，较高利率可能抑制需求。9 月，美国联邦储备委员会将其基准利率上调 25 个基点至 3.75% 至 4% 的目标区间，这是自 2023 年 7 月以来的首次加息。

Sun 表示：“尽管如此，由于未来几个月利率可能继续上升，一些买家可能会保持谨慎。”

劳动力风险、代际财富

国内经济状况是另一项风险。Knight Frank Singapore 研究主管 Leonard Tay 表示，“需要关注劳动力市场”。

尽管失业率仍处于低位，裁员人数从 2026 年第一季度的 3,830 人增加至 2026 年第二季度的 4,620 人，裁员集中在制造业、信息与通信以及金融服务等行业。

Tay 表示：“随着 AI 相关颠覆因素在多个行业扩散，劳动力市场正逐渐出现不确定感。”“如果就业保障受到削弱，潜在购房者可能会推迟购房，并采取更谨慎的观望态度。”

与此同时，住房财富的代际转移正在住宅市场中创造另一项需求来源，ERA Singapore 首席执行官 Marcus Chu 表示。“我们看到较年长的屋主换购较合适规模住房，并从显著升值的房产中释放权益，同时一些较年轻买家获得家庭支持，用于购买首套或下一套住房，”他指出。

“这也有助于解释，为什么即便房价和可负担性压力上升，购买力仍保持相对韧性。”

对于全年，SRI 研究与数据分析主管 Mohan Sandrasegeran 预计，2026 年私人住宅价格将上涨约 3% 至 3.5%，大体符合 2025 年录得的 3.3% 涨幅。

Sandrasegeran 表示：“我们预计最后一个季度价格增长将保持相对温和。”“2026 年第四季度更广泛的新盘供应管线，应为购房者在不同地点和价格点提供更多选择。”

查看 Amberwood At Holland、Dunearn House、Lentor Gardens Residences 物业的最新挂牌