# Removal of 15-month rule unlikely to drive up HDB resale prices: Analysts

- **Source:** Channel NewsAsia
- **Published:** 2026-07-28T10:31:00.000Z
- **Author:** Vanessa Lim
- **Original:** https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/hdb-resale-condos-wait-out-period-private-property-absd-6282371
- **Topics:** HDB & Public Housing, Private Residential, Government & Policy

## Featured rationale

The change may release pent-up right-sizing demand, particularly for larger flats, while rising MOP supply and alternative housing options could limit broader price increases.

## AI summary

Singapore immediately removed the 15-month wait-out period, allowing eligible former private homeowners to purchase non-subsidised HDB resale flats without delay.

## Original article

SINGAPORE: The removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private owners buying Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats may unlock pent-up demand from households looking to right-size but is unlikely to trigger another sharp increase in resale prices, according to property analysts. With HDB resale prices moderating, a growing pipeline of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) over the next few years and buyers continuing to have alternatives such as Build-to-Order (BTO) flats, experts said the market is better placed to absorb the additional demand. National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat announced on Tuesday (Jul 28) that the wait-out period will be scrapped with immediate effect, allowing eligible private property owners to buy non-subsidised HDB resale flats without waiting 15 months after selling their private homes. Analysts noted that the restriction was introduced when HDB resale prices were rising rapidly. Since then, the market has cooled. HDB resale prices have declined for two consecutive quarters since the start of the year. This follows five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth. Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group , said the key objectives of the cooling measure had largely been achieved, pointing to moderating HDB resale prices and lower resale transaction volumes as signs that the public housing market has stabilised. Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, said the removal of the wait-out period will give private homeowners greater flexibility to right-size, while the larger pipeline of flats reaching MOP should help absorb the additional demand and preserve overall market stability. Since its introduction in 2022, HDB has processed about 1,800 appeals annually from private property owners to waive the 15-month wait-out period. This number has been “stable” over the last few years, with HDB acceding to about one in four appeals, the ministry said in a written parliamentary reply last year. This is mainly for households in financial difficulties or extenuating circumstances, who have no alternative housing options. DEMAND LIKELY CONCENTRATED IN LARGER FLATS Analysts CNA spoke to said the biggest impact is likely to be felt in the market for larger resale flats. Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Group, said the cooling measure had achieved its objective of reducing demand from private property owners for five-room or larger flats. Transaction volumes for five-room resale flats fell from 6,951 units in 2022 to 5,966 units in 2025, while executive and multi-generation flat sales declined from 1,946 to 1,539 units over the same period. “Based on current sentiments, Huttons Data Analytics predicts that the volume of five-room and executive/multi-gen flats sold in 2026 may be similar to 2025,” he said. Meanwhile, four-room resale flat transactions remained broadly stable at around 11,000 units annually, suggesting demand did not spill over significantly into smaller flats, he added. With the restriction lifted, Mr Lee said he expects some former private homeowners to return to the market for larger flats. "This may potentially provide support to the HDB resale market which has been sluggish in the first half of 2026," he said, adding that resale prices could stabilise in the second half of the year rather than spike. He added that first-time buyers continue to have alternatives, including BTO flats, ECs and private homes, making a sharp rise in HDB resale prices unlikely. Similarly, Ms Sun said the renewed demand is likely to be concentrated in larger resale flats, as former private homeowners are typically cash-rich after selling their private homes and tend to prioritise larger units that offer more space and value. With more HDB flats reaching MOP and another batch of new flats scheduled to be released in October this year, Ms Sun said price growth may remain subdued in the second half of the year, hampered by macroeconomic uncertainties and a dimmer job outlook. Mr Lee added that prices of resale flats may "possibly stabilise" in the second half of the year.

“TWO-SPEED” MARKET While analysts do not expect a broad-based surge in resale prices, they said some segments could see stronger demand than others. As the pool of former private homeowners buying larger HDB flats grows, Ms Sun said there could be more million-dollar resale flat transactions. However, she said these premium transactions still account for only a small share of the overall market, meaning any price increases are likely to remain confined to that segment rather than spill over to the broader resale market. “Moreover, ample overall housing supply will continue to keep price growth stable and measured in the upcoming years,” she said. Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI) , added that although million-dollar HDB resale transactions have continued, they remain concentrated in a small number of mature estates with strong locational attributes, rather than reflecting broad-based price growth across the resale market. "We expect resale prices to remain broadly stable and continue to forecast a more measured price increase of between 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent for the full year 2026," he added. Ms Sun added that demand for four-room resale flats could soften as more private homeowners gravitate towards larger units, resulting in a "two-speed" market where newer and bigger resale flats continue to outperform while smaller or less well-located flats experience slower price growth. Analysts also said the change could encourage more movement across Singapore's housing market. As private homeowners sell their properties to move into HDB resale flats, more private homes could become available, potentially giving buyers more options. Mr Lee said this additional supply may contribute to further stabilisation in private residential prices, which have also moderated in recent years. Ms Sun added that rental demand and price growth for small condominiums and large HDB resale flats could slow down in the upcoming months as locals who used to lease during the 15-month wait-out period no longer need to lease. While some pent-up demand is expected, Mr Lim said the increase in MOP flats entering the resale market over the next few years should help ensure sufficient supply for both first-time buyers and households moving from private property. About 13,500 flats are expected to reach their MOP this year, compared with 8,000 such flats in 2025.

REVISED ABSD RULES Analysts also welcomed revised Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) rules for large en bloc projects, which were also announced on Monday. The changes, which take effect for residential land acquired on or after Jul 29, 2026, give developers of larger projects longer timelines to meet conditions tied to ABSD remission, while introducing new safeguards to ensure homes are released to the market in a timely manner. Mr Marcus Chu, chief executive officer of ERA Singapore, said the changes provide developers with greater flexibility and could sustain the recent pick-up in en bloc activity, although a broader recovery will still depend on factors such as owners' price expectations and development costs. Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at Mogul.sg, said the revised timelines could prompt owners of large, ageing residential developments - particularly 99-year leasehold projects - to explore collective sales, as redevelopment becomes more viable. However, he said significant hurdles remain, including the rising cost of replacement homes for owners, unchanged plot ratios at many ageing estates, and competition from Government Land Sales (GLS) sites, which developers may still prefer because of the shorter process and lower risk of owners’ objections and litigation. Mr Mohan said over the longer term, the revised framework could support a gradual increase in the redevelopment of ageing large residential estates that were previously more challenging to undertake. This may contribute to a healthier pipeline of future housing supply while accelerating estate rejuvenation and enabling more intensive land use in line with Singapore's long-term planning objectives, he said.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: grok_cli

### 分析师：取消15个月等待期不太可能推高组屋转售价

随着转售价格趋缓、更多组屋达到最低居住年限，以及买家仍有其他选择，分析师称市场有能力消化额外需求。

新加坡：分析师表示，取消私人住宅业主购买建屋发展局（HDB）转售组屋须遵守的15个月等待期，或释放希望调整居住规模的家庭积压需求，但不太可能再次触发转售价格急剧上涨。随着组屋转售价格趋缓、未来数年达到最低居住年限（MOP）的单位供应增加，以及买家仍有预购组屋（BTO）等替代选择，专家称市场更有能力消化额外需求。国家发展部部长徐芳达于周二（7月28日）宣布，等待期即日起取消，符合资格的私人住宅业主在出售私人住宅后，无需再等待15个月即可购买非津贴组屋转售单位。分析师指出，该限制是在组屋转售价格快速上涨时推出的。此后市场已降温。自年初以来，组屋转售价格已连续两个季度下滑。此前则连续五个季度价格增长放缓或零增长。Realion（OrangeTee & ETC）集团首席研究员兼策略师孙燕清表示，降温措施的主要目标已大体实现，她以组屋转售价格趋缓及转售成交量下降，作为公共住屋市场已趋稳定的迹象。ERA新加坡关键执行官林恩权表示，取消等待期将给予私人住宅业主更大的调整居住规模灵活性，而更多达到MOP的单位供应应有助于消化额外需求，并维持整体市场稳定。自2022年实施以来，建屋局每年处理约1,800宗私人住宅业主豁免15个月等待期的上诉。该数字过去数年“稳定”，建屋局约批准四分之一的上诉，部门去年在书面国会答复中表示。这主要针对陷入财务困境或有特殊情况、且无其他住房选择的家庭。需求或集中于较大单位 接受CNA访问的分析师表示，最大影响可能出现在较大型转售组屋市场。合登集团数据分析高级董事李斯德表示，降温措施已实现降低私人住宅业主对五房式或更大单位需求的目标。五房式转售组屋成交量从2022年的6,951个单位降至2025年的5,966个单位；同期，执行式与多代同堂组屋销量从1,946个单位降至1,539个单位。“基于当前市场情绪，合登数据分析预测，2026年五房式及执行式/多代同堂组屋成交量可能与2025年相近，”他说。与此同时，四房式转售组屋年成交量大致稳定在约11,000个单位，显示需求并未显著外溢至较小单位，他补充道。随着限制取消，李斯德预计部分前私人住宅业主会重返市场购买较大单位。“这或可为2026年上半年表现疲弱的组屋转售市场提供支撑，”他说，并补充转售价格在下半年可能趋稳，而非飙升。他补充，首次购屋者仍有BTO组屋、执行共管公寓（EC）及私人住宅等替代选择，因此组屋转售价格不太可能急剧上涨。同样，孙燕清表示，重新释放的需求可能集中在较大型转售组屋，因为前私人住宅业主在出售私人住宅后通常现金充裕，并倾向优先选择空间更大、更有价值的单位。随着更多组屋达到MOP，加上今年10月另有一批新组屋预定推出，孙燕清表示，下半年价格增长可能继续受压，并受宏观经济不确定因素及就业前景偏淡拖累。李斯德补充，转售组屋价格在下半年“可能趋稳”。

“双速”市场 尽管分析师不预期转售价格出现全面急升，但他们表示部分细分市场的需求可能强于其他市场。随着购买较大型组屋的前私人住宅业主群体扩大，孙燕清表示，百万新元组屋转售成交可能增多。不过她指出，这类高端成交仍只占整体市场一小部分，意味着任何涨价很可能局限于该细分市场，而不至于外溢至更广泛的转售市场。“此外，充足的整体住房供应将继续使未来数年的价格增长保持稳定而审慎，”她说。新加坡房地产经纪人有限公司（SRI）研究与数据分析主管Mohan Sandrasegeran补充，尽管百万新元组屋转售成交持续出现，但仍集中在少数区位优势突出的成熟市镇，并不能反映转售市场的全面价格上涨。“我们预期转售价格将大致保持稳定，并继续预测2026年全年价格以0.5%至2%的较温和幅度上升，”他补充道。孙燕清还表示，随着更多私人住宅业主转向较大单位，四房式转售组屋需求可能走软，从而形成“双速”市场：较新、较大的转售组屋继续跑赢，而较小或区位较弱的单位则价格增长较慢。分析师也称，此举可能鼓励新加坡住屋市场更多流动。当私人住宅业主出售物业迁入组屋转售单位时，更多私人住宅可能进入市场，从而为买家提供更多选择。李斯德表示，这部分额外供应或有助于私人住宅价格进一步趋稳，后者近年亦已放缓。孙燕清补充，未来数月小型共管公寓及大型转售组屋的租赁需求与租金增长可能放缓，因为以往在15个月等待期内租房的本地人不再需要租住。尽管预期会有一些积压需求，林恩权表示，未来数年进入转售市场的MOP组屋增加，应有助于确保首次购屋者与从私人住宅转入的家庭都能获得充足供应。预计今年约有13,500个单位达到MOP，而2025年为8,000个。

修订ABSD规则 分析师亦欢迎周一同步宣布的大型集体出售项目额外买方印花税（ABSD）规则修订。相关调整适用于2026年7月29日或之后购置的住宅用地，给予较大型项目发展商更长时限以满足ABSD减免条件，同时引入新保障措施，确保住宅及时推向市场。ERA新加坡首席执行官朱福荣表示，调整为发展商提供更大灵活性，并可能延续近期集体出售活动回升，但更广泛复苏仍取决于业主价格预期与开发成本等因素。Mogul.sg首席研究官Nicholas Mak表示，修订后的时限可能促使大型老化住宅项目——尤其是99年地契项目——的业主探索集体出售，因为重建变得更可行。不过他指出，重大障碍依然存在，包括业主重置住房成本上升、许多老化住宅区容积率未变，以及来自政府售地（GLS）地块的竞争——发展商或仍更偏好后者，因其流程更短，业主反对与诉讼风险更低。Mohan表示，长远来看，修订后的框架或可支持以往较难推进的大型老化住宅区逐步增加重建。他说，这或有助于形成更健康的未来住房供应管道，同时加快市镇更新，并按新加坡长期规划目标实现更集约的土地使用。