# The Latest URA Data Reveals A Growing Divide In Singapore’s Commercial Property Market — Here’s What It Means

- **Source:** Stacked Homes
- **Published:** 2026-07-25T11:33:25.000Z
- **Author:** Sihan Chia
- **Original:** https://stackedhomes.com/latest-ura-data-reveals-growing-divide-in-singapores-commercial-property-market/
- **Topics:** Commercial & Industrial, Government & Policy

## Featured rationale

The simultaneous rise in rents and vacancies signals a widening flight-to-quality divide that may favour Grade A offices and well-connected suburban or luxury malls.

## AI summary

In 2Q2026, office rents rose 0.4% q-o-q as vacancy reached 11.0%, while retail rents gained 0.6% amid higher vacancies across all submarkets.

## Original article

The latest real estate statistics published by URA suggest that existing trends in the office and retail markets are continuing, influenced by flight-to-quality trends for offices to resilient retailer demand for suburban malls.

In the office market, the pipeline of new supply has dwindled due to the absence of land for development in the Central Business District (CBD). As business weighed expansion moves against relocation costs, occupier behaviour leaned towards stability over expansion.

Meanwhile, global instability over the first six months of this year turned out to be a double-edged sword. While it prompted corporate real estate tenants to tread cautiously, it also bolstered Singapore’s position as a safe-haven business hub, attracting multinational occupiers seeking a stable regional base away from conflict zones.

Traditionally, financial services occupiers have been, and are expected to remain, a key source of Grade A office demand. But the proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) firms and start-ups means that this group is becoming a growing occupier segment, drawn by Singapore’s deep talent pool and supportive innovation ecosystem.

Cognisant of Singapore’s stability, investors have been actively acquiring office buildings in the first half of 2026. Earlier in May, the Stacked editorial team reported that office investment deals surged to a record quarterly high of $14.73 billion worth of transactions in 1Q 2026 alone.

Over in the retail market, increased cost and overhead pressures have led to F&B and retail outlet closures, such as Encore by Rhubarb, Wing Seong Fatty’s Restaurant and Jumbo Seafood’s flagship at East Coast Seafood Centre. There is also a good chance that a wave of mall ownership changes could see retail rents trend higher after asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) by landlords and asset owners.

Some malls that have recently changed hands include Paragon’s $3.9 billion sale to CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), Delfi Orchard which was acquired by City Developments (CDL) for $439 million, and the rear block of The Centrepoint. Other older malls in the area including Tanglin Shopping Centre, Ming Arcade and Concorde Hotel and Shopping Mall were sold for redevelopment.

In the next phase of Orchard Road’s evolution, retailers must go beyond retail options, and provide fun and differentiated experiences for everyone. (Illustration: URA)

While there are ongoing efforts to turn the Orchard Road shopping belt into a more holistic mixed-use precinct, Singapore’s increasingly decentralised urban structure and connectivity could be a challenge.

Unlike a few decades ago, today consumers can commute seamlessly between residential and commercial nodes, resulting in little need to depend on a central location for social gatherings.

For the purpose of redeveloping older buildings with bold and innovative concepts, initiatives such as the Strategic Development Incentive (SDI) scheme will support several developments to create diversity in Orchard’s lifestyle, arts and cultural offerings.

Office market

In 2Q2026, office rents went up by 0.4% q-o-q compared with 0.2% q-o-q increase in 1Q2026. Rentals increased by 0.8% q-o-q, compared with 0.2% q-o-q decline in the previous quarter.

Office space overview. Source: URA

Islandwide occupancy in the office market slipped marginally by 0.2 percentage points (pp) from 89.2% to 89.0%. Nevertheless, the upward trend in the office rental index reflected consistently stable demand by office space occupiers.

At the end of 2Q2026, the total supply of office space was about 9,127,796 sq ft in terms of gross floor area (GFA), compared with 9,332,310 sq ft GFA of office space in the previous quarter.

Property Price Index of office space in the Central Region. (Credit: URA)

In the second quarter of this year, occupied office space increased by 86,111 sq ft, compared with the increase of 279,862 sq ft in the previous quarter. Office space stock increased by 204,514 sq ft, compared with the increase of 86,111 sq ft in the previous quarter. As a result, the islandwide vacancy rate of office space increased from 10.8% in 1Q 2026 to 11.0% as at the end of 2Q 2026.

Generally, office lease renewals were done more out of necessity rather than as the result of expansion plans by companies. Rather than a capital-intensive step up to a larger space, rental increments that are broadly in tandem with inflation are more palatable to corporate tenants.

Carrying on the momentum from the previous year, flight-to-quality continues to shape selective leasing decisions, which means competition for prime space will remain robust. Companies seeking a strategic office foothold that shapes company culture, innovation, and talent retention remain drawn to well-located, newer Grade A buildings in the CBD.

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s 2Q2026 market report, CBD Grade A office rents are forecasted to grow 4-5% in 2026. Similarly, office rents are expected to maintain their upward momentum through the rest of 2026, having risen 2.2% in the first half of the year.

What this means for older, less competitive buildings, especially those without sheltered connectivity to mass transit nodes or with obsolete specifications, is a combination of increased vacancy risks and mounting downward pressure on rents.

The current CBD market has also prompted some to consider decentralised locations, albeit at a nascent stage.

Stock and vacancy of office space. (Credit: URA)

Leonard Tay, Head of Research at Knight Frank, says that as the global economy navigates through uncertainties brought on by political tensions, trade disagreements and conflict, Singapore’s appeal as a safe haven underpins its long-term attractiveness.

“Looking ahead, market conditions should remain resilient but measured. The pre-existing market dynamics observed in the first six months of the year is expected to prevail in the remaining half, and likely into 2027. Rents are projected to increase by 3% to 5% in 2026 given the tight CBD supply, with decentralised spaces capturing spillover demand when CBD occupiers require lower cost options to accommodate much needed growth.”

Retail market

Over in the retail segment of the real estate market, Singapore’s affluent consumer base, recovering tourism, and strong position as a regional business hub has helped the city-state attract international brands and new physical store entrants, such as Molly Tea, Lotteria, Torikizoku and Subdued.Prime mall openings were driven largely by F&B businesses, who accounted for 53% of new retail openings in 1H2026, meanwhile Lifestyle and Fashion brands contributed to 16% and 14% of new store openings, respectively, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield.In 2Q2026, the price of retail space increased by 0.8% q-o-q, compared with the 2.2% q-o-q increase in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, retail rentals increased 0.6% q-o-q, up from 1Q2026’s 0.6% q-o-q decline.

Property Price Index of retail space in the Central Region. (Credit: URA)

In terms of vacancies, islandwide vacancy rose to 7.0%, from 6.4% in 1Q2026, with all submarkets recording higher vacancy rates.

Retail space overview. Source: URA

In the second quarter of this year, the amount of occupied retail space decreased by 398,265 sq ft, compared with the increase of 64,584 sq ft in the previous quarter. As at the end of 2Q 2026, total supply was about 6,501,402 sq ft GFA of retail space in the market, compared with the 6,512,166 sq ft in the previous quarter. Along the prime Orchard Road shopping belt, retail vacancy rose from 7.1% in 1Q2026 to 7.2% in 2Q2026, while vacancy at the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) rose to 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. As a result, the islandwide vacancy rate of retail space increased to 6.5% at the end of the second quarter, from 6.3% as at the previous quarter.

Stock and vacancy of retail space. (Credit: URA)

Wong Xian Yang, head of research at Cushman & Wakefield notes that a two-tier market continues to characterise the retail segment, a direction that has continued since the start of this year. With limited new supply in the pipeline, many retail landlords are expected to remain focused on AEIs to unlock value from existing assets.

For instance, planned upgrades at City Square Mall, West Mall, Hougang Mall, NEX and Plaza Singapura reflect ongoing efforts to optimise space utilisation, refresh tenant mixes and enhance the overall shopper experience. These initiatives are expected to strengthen the positioning of top-tier assets characterised by strong connectivity and curated tenant mixes, further widening market bifurcation.

Wong Shanting, Head of Research at Newmark notes that while business sentiment has turned more cautious, new retail and F&B formations continue to sprout.

Two key factors are likely to underpin retail activity. First, tourist arrivals are expected to remain stable with higher per capita spending in the second half of the year. Second, the government has released the latest tranche of household vouchers in June to ease cost pressures, potentially lifting discretionary spending.

With online channels such as TikTok shops and other e‑commerce platforms expanding, retailers find themselves in a more diversified retail ecosystem with more options to reach customers beyond traditional brick‑and‑mortar stores.

Wong foresees that along prime Orchard Road, retail expansion is likely to become more selective with performance largely driven by top‑tier luxury malls. Conversely, well‑located suburban malls are expected to lead growth in this segment with strong residential catchments, driven by everyday domestic demand.

In spite of the retail sector’s ongoing challenges, Tay of Knight Frank projects that retail rents will remain stable and register growth of approximately 2-4% for the rest of 2026.

## Chinese translation

> Translation model: grok_cli

### 最新URA数据揭示新加坡商业地产市场分化加剧——这意味着什么

2026年第二季度，新加坡写字楼与零售市场租金与空置率同步上升，品质迁移重塑写字楼租赁格局，商场易手则推升零售租金。以下是URA最新数据所显示的情况，以及分析师对2026年余下时间的展望。

URA发布的最新房地产统计数据显示，写字楼与零售市场的既有趋势仍在延续，分别受写字楼品质迁移趋势与郊区商场稳健零售需求所影响。

在写字楼市场，由于中央商务区（CBD）缺乏可开发土地，新增供应管道已趋萎缩。企业在权衡扩张与搬迁成本时，租户行为更偏向稳定而非扩张。

与此同时，今年前六个月的全球不稳定局势成为一把双刃剑。它一方面促使企业房地产租户谨慎行事，另一方面也巩固了新加坡作为避险商业枢纽的地位，吸引寻求远离冲突地区、稳定区域基地的跨国租户。

传统上，金融服务租户一直是、且预计仍将是甲级写字楼需求的重要来源。但人工智能（AI）企业与初创公司的蓬勃发展，使这一群体成为日益增长的租户细分，受新加坡深厚人才库与支持性创新生态所吸引。

意识到新加坡的稳定性，投资者在2026年上半年积极收购写字楼。早在5月，Stacked编辑团队曾报道，写字楼投资交易飙升至单季纪录高位，仅2026年第一季度交易额就达147.3亿新元。

在零售市场，成本与运营开支压力加大，已导致餐饮与零售门店关闭，例如Encore by Rhubarb、Wing Seong Fatty’s Restaurant，以及珍宝海鲜在东海岸海鲜中心的旗舰店。商场所有权更迭浪潮，也可能在业主与资产业主完成资产提升计划（AEI）后，推高零售租金。

近期易手的商场包括百利宫以39亿新元售予凯德综合商用信托（CICT）、德尔菲乌节以4.39亿新元被城市发展（CDL）收购，以及The Centrepoint的后座。该区域其他较旧商场，包括东陵购物中心、明阁商场与康得思酒店及商场，则被售出用于重建。

在乌节路下一阶段演变中，零售商必须超越单纯零售选项，为所有人提供有趣且差异化的体验。（示意图：URA）

尽管正持续努力将乌节路购物带打造成更整体的综合用途区域，新加坡日益去中心化的城市结构与交通连接可能构成挑战。

与几十年前不同，如今消费者可在居住与商业节点之间无缝通勤，因此几乎无需依赖中心位置进行社交聚会。

为以大胆创新的概念重建较旧建筑，战略发展激励（SDI）计划等举措将支持若干项目，为乌节的生活、艺术与文化供给创造多样性。

写字楼市场

2026年第二季度，写字楼租金环比上涨0.4%，而2026年第一季度环比上涨0.2%。租金环比上涨0.8%，而上一季度为环比下降0.2%。

写字楼空间概览。来源：URA

全岛写字楼入住率略降0.2个百分点（pp），从89.2%降至89.0%。尽管如此，写字楼租金指数的上行趋势，反映出写字楼租户需求持续稳定。

截至2026年第二季度末，写字楼总供应按总楼面面积（GFA）计约为9,127,796平方英尺，上一季度则为9,332,310平方英尺GFA。

中央地区写字楼物业价格指数。（来源：URA）

今年第二季度，已占用写字楼面积增加86,111平方英尺，上一季度则增加279,862平方英尺。写字楼存量增加204,514平方英尺，上一季度增加86,111平方英尺。因此，全岛写字楼空置率从2026年第一季度的10.8%升至2026年第二季度末的11.0%。

总体而言，写字楼续约更多是出于必要，而非企业扩张计划的结果。对企业租户而言，租金增幅大体与通胀同步，比资本密集型地扩大空间更可接受。

承接上年势头，品质迁移继续塑造选择性租赁决策，这意味着对优质空间的竞争将保持强劲。寻求可塑造企业文化、创新与人才留存的战略办公落脚点的公司，仍被CBD内位置优越、较新的甲级大楼所吸引。

根据世邦魏理仕2026年第二季度市场报告，CBD甲级写字楼租金预计在2026年增长4-5%。同样，写字楼租金预计将在2026年余下时间保持上行势头，上半年已上涨2.2%。

对较旧、竞争力较弱的大楼，尤其是缺乏连接大众捷运节点的有顶通道或规格过时者而言，这意味着空置风险上升与租金下行压力加大并存。

当前CBD市场也促使部分租户考虑去中心化区位，尽管仍处于萌芽阶段。

写字楼存量与空置。（来源：URA）

莱坊研究主管Leonard Tay表示，在全球经济穿越政治紧张、贸易分歧与冲突带来的不确定性之际，新加坡作为避风港的吸引力支撑其长期吸引力。

“展望未来，市场状况应保持韧性但审慎。今年前六个月观察到的既有市场动态，预计将在下半年延续，并可能延续至2027年。鉴于CBD供应紧张，租金预计在2026年上涨3%至5%；当CBD租户需要以较低成本选项容纳必要增长时，去中心化空间将承接溢出需求。”

零售市场

在房地产市场的零售板块，新加坡富裕的消费者基础、复苏中的旅游业，以及作为区域商业枢纽的强势地位，帮助这个城市国家吸引国际品牌与新实体店入驻，例如茉莉奶白、Lotteria、鸟贵族与Subdued。顶级商场开业主要由餐饮业务推动，其占2026年上半年新增零售开业的53%，同时生活方式与时尚品牌分别贡献新增门店开业的16%与14%，数据来自世邦魏理仕。2026年第二季度，零售空间价格环比上涨0.8%，上一季度环比上涨2.2%。与此同时，零售租金环比上涨0.6%，扭转了2026年第一季度环比下降0.6%的情况。

中央地区零售空间物业价格指数。（来源：URA）

就空置而言，全岛空置率升至7.0%，高于2026年第一季度的6.4%，所有子市场空置率均有所上升。

零售空间概览。来源：URA

今年第二季度，已占用零售空间减少398,265平方英尺，上一季度则增加64,584平方英尺。截至2026年第二季度末，市场零售空间总供应约为6,501,402平方英尺GFA，上一季度为6,512,166平方英尺。在核心乌节路购物带，零售空置率从2026年第一季度的7.1%升至2026年第二季度的7.2%，中央区其余地区（RCR）与中央区以外地区（OCR）空置率分别升至8.3%与5.2%。因此，全岛零售空间空置率从上一季度末的6.3%升至第二季度末的6.5%。

零售空间存量与空置。（来源：URA）

世邦魏理仕研究主管Wong Xian Yang指出，双轨市场继续成为零售板块特征，这一方向自今年初以来持续。由于新增供应管道有限，许多零售业主预计将继续聚焦AEI，从既有资产中释放价值。

例如，City Square Mall、West Mall、Hougang Mall、NEX与Plaza Singapura的计划升级，反映了优化空间利用、刷新租户组合并提升整体购物体验的持续努力。这些举措预计将强化以强连接与精心策展租户组合为特征的顶级资产定位，进一步扩大市场分化。

Newmark研究主管Wong Shanting指出，尽管商业情绪趋于谨慎，新的零售与餐饮业态仍持续涌现。

两大关键因素可能支撑零售活动。第一，游客到访量预计在下半年保持稳定，且人均消费更高。第二，政府已在6月发放最新一批家庭消费券，以缓解成本压力，有可能提振可自由支配支出。

随着TikTok shops及其他电商平台等线上渠道扩张，零售商置身于更元化的零售生态，拥有更多超越传统实体店触达客户的选项。

Wong预计，在核心乌节路，零售扩张可能更趋选择性，表现将主要由顶级奢侈商场驱动。相反，位置优越、拥有强劲住宅客群的郊区商场，预计将在这一板块领跑增长，由日常本土需求驱动。

尽管零售业仍面临挑战，莱坊的Tay预计零售租金将保持稳定，并在2026年余下时间录得约2-4%的增长。