# What Japan's rising land prices really tell us about the property market - **Source:** EdgeProp Singapore - **Published:** 2026-10-14T00:46:28.000Z - **Author:** Yasuyuki Nozawa - **Original:** https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/what-japans-rising-land-prices-really-tell-us-about-property-market - **Topics:** Private Residential, Government & Policy, Investment & Capital Markets ## Featured rationale The broad recovery signals strengthening demand, while scarce land, higher construction costs and inbound tourism may support well-located older condos and major-city property values. ## AI summary Japan’s nationwide land prices rose for a fifth consecutive year, with residential and commercial values appreciating and Tokyo and Osaka considerably outpacing the national average. ## Original article Japan's latest land price data confirms something those of us in the property market have been seeing for some time now. Land prices are rising again, and the recovery is getting broader. The latest government survey showed nationwide land prices increasing for a fifth consecutive year, with residential and commercial land both appreciating, and particularly strong gains in the major metropolitan areas. For a country where falling property values shaped investment decisions for decades, that's a meaningful shift. Read also: Frasers Hospitality opens Fraser Place Roppongi, Tokyo But the national number hides more than it reveals. Japan is not one property market. It comprises dozens of them. What moves a residential building in central Tokyo has almost nothing to do with what moves a hotel in Nagoya or a house in a regional city. Higher costs and the appeal of older condos In Tokyo, one of the clearest pressures is simply the cost and scarcity of creating new supply in desirable locations. Well-located land is limited and construction materials, labor and development costs have all risen sharply. That combination makes it more expensive to build something new, and it raises the value of existing buildings that are structurally sound and well located. It is part of why we have spent so many years acquiring older condos and renovating them rather than starting from scratch. New-build condos in central Tokyo tend to be small — developers size units down to hit affordable price points, given how expensive land and construction have become. Read also: How a Hong Kong property investor still made HK$237 mil — after a 40% price cut That leaves a gap for buyers who want more space than a new building can offer at a comparable price. Older condos, many of them originally built with more generous floor plans, fill that gap naturally. Renovated to reflect what today's buyers actually want — more bathrooms and toilets, for instance — they can be just as compelling as new construction, often at a better price for the space. How tourism and the weak yen are influencing demand International visitors have added another layer of demand. According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, Japan welcomed a record 42.68 million international visitors in 2025, up 15.8% from the year before. That momentum carried into 2026 — July alone brought 3.44 million arrivals, the highest figure ever recorded for that month. The effect can be seen most clearly in Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto, where hotels, restaurants and retail now compete directly with residential and commercial users for the same square footage. In some tourism-heavy markets, the impact on land values has been striking; the latest survey showed particularly strong appreciation in destinations that benefit most from inbound demand. Read also: Hilton brings Motto brand to Japan with 108-room Kyoto hotel opening in 2029 There is also a less obvious link between tourism and investment. Most international buyers' first exposure to Japanese real estate is simply spending time here — the trains, the safety, the quality of construction, the restaurants and the neighborhoods. Only later does that familiarity turn into an interest in owning something: a residence, an investment property, or a broader allocation to Japan. The weak yen has made that conversation an easier one to have. Convert a Tokyo property’s value into Singapore dollars or US dollars and it can look inexpensive next to other major global cities. But currency is only one part of the case, and it is the part most likely to change. Exchange rates move constantly. A building's location, tenant base and physical condition do not. That is why, when we look at a property, we spend far more time on the neighborhood and the building than on any macro narrative. Who wants to live there? How good is the transportation? Is rental demand durable, and how much competing supply could realistically get built nearby? Can the property itself be improved? Those questions, not the macro numbers, are what decide whether an asset holds up over time. Closer look at Japan's major property markets National averages can also be misleading in the other direction — they understate what is happening in the strongest markets. The 2026 government land survey found that prices in the Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas rose considerably faster than the national average. Tokyo has the underlying fundamentals on its side: a steady inflow of population, a vast employment base, deep housing demand and transportation infrastructure most cities can only aim for. Osaka is building its own momentum, with substantial investment flowing in. Kyoto has a different character altogether — global tourism demand running into supply that is unusually constrained by geography and history. Beyond these three, conditions vary enormously by region. We have made a bet on that kind of local distinction ourselves. LogProstyle built its business primarily in Greater Tokyo, but this September we completed the acquisition of I-Flatz, a condo sales, renovation and leasing company focusing on Osaka and Kyoto in the Kansai region. The deal gives us a platform to bring the business model we have proven over the past 20 years in Greater Tokyo to Kansai, Japan's second-largest economic region after Kanto — adapted to how business actually works there, not just copied from Tokyo. Consumer preferences are different there. So is the available housing stock, tourism patterns, and what you can and cannot build. Real estate investment that ignores those differences does not tend to work out. What comes next for property investors Rates are moving too. Japan is stepping away from the extraordinarily loose monetary policy that defined the past few decades. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, the highest it's been in 31 years. Borrowing costs now matter more in every acquisition decision we make. Still, it is worth keeping in perspective that mortgage rates for buyers remain very low by global standards, even after this normalisation, and our own average cost of debt at LogProstyle is still under 3% — low next to what borrowers face in most other developed markets. If you are an international investor — and I hear this most often from people looking at Japan out of Singapore — the useful move is to get specific, fast. A national land-price index tells you which way the wind is blowing. It will not tell you whether a given building, on a given street, with a given tenant base, is actually a good investment. That is a different question, and it has to be answered property by property. Five straight years of nationwide increases tell us the recovery has real breadth, not just a few hot spots carrying the average. What comes next is harder: investors will have to tell markets apart from each other, city by city, and sometimes street by street. Japan's major cities still have limited supply, international demand and a lot of ageing buildings worth a second look. Those forces are real. But the opportunities that last will keep coming from the same place they always have — understanding why people actually want to live, visit and invest somewhere. Yasuyuki Nozawa is representative director, president and CEO of LogProstyle, a Tokyo-headquartered, New York-listed real estate platform spanning condo renovation and resale, residential development, investor-oriented property operations, ryokan hotel operations and restaurant brands. ## Chinese translation > Translation model: grok_cli ### 日本地价上涨究竟揭示了房地产市场的什么 日本房地产市场的复苏正在取得进展。推动因素是什么，接下来会怎样，投资机会又在哪里？ 日本最新的地价数据，证实了我们这些身处房地产市场的人一段时间以来一直看在眼里的现象。地价再次上涨，复苏的范围也在扩大。 最新政府调查显示，全国地价连续第五年上升，住宅用地与商业用地均在升值，主要都市圈的涨幅尤为强劲。 对一个数十年来房产价值下跌一直塑造着投资决策的国家而言，这是一次意义重大的转变。 另请阅读：Frasers Hospitality 在东京开设 Fraser Place Roppongi 但全国性数字所掩盖的，多于它所揭示的。 日本并不是一个单一的房地产市场，而是由数十个市场组成。推动东京市中心一栋住宅楼价格变动的因素，与推动名古屋一家酒店或地方城市一栋房屋价格变动的因素，几乎毫无关系。 成本上升与老旧公寓的吸引力 在东京，最清晰的压力之一，不过是在理想地段创造新供应的成本与稀缺。 地段优良的土地有限，建筑材料、劳动力和开发成本都已大幅上升。 这样的组合使新建变得更加昂贵，也抬高了那些结构完好、地段优良的既有建筑的价值。 这正是我们多年来一直收购老旧公寓并加以翻新，而不是从零开始的部分原因。 东京市中心的新建公寓往往面积偏小——鉴于土地和建造已经变得如此昂贵，开发商缩小单位面积，以触及可负担的价格点。 另请阅读：一名香港房地产投资者在价格下调40%之后，如何仍赚得2.37亿港元 这就为那些希望以相近价格获得比新建筑所能提供的更大空间的买家留下了缺口。 老旧公寓中有许多最初采用更宽裕的户型建造，自然填补了这一缺口。 经过翻新，以反映当今买家真正想要的东西——例如更多浴室和卫生间——它们可以与新建项目同样具有吸引力，而且就空间而言，价格往往更优。 旅游业与日元疲软如何影响需求 国际游客带来了另一层需求。根据日本政府观光局（Japan National Tourism Organization）的数据，日本2025年接待国际游客达创纪录的4268万人次，较前一年增长15.8%。 这一势头延续到2026年——仅7月就有344万人次入境，为该月有记录以来的最高数字。 这一影响在东京、大阪和京都看得最清楚。在这些城市，酒店、餐厅和零售如今正与住宅及商业使用者直接争夺同一面积。 在一些旅游旺盛的市场，对土地价值的影响相当显著；最新调查显示，从入境需求中受益最多的目的地升值尤为强劲。 另请阅读：希尔顿将 Motto 品牌引入日本，拥有108间客房的京都酒店将于2029年开业 旅游业与投资之间，还有一层不那么明显的联系。大多数国际买家对日本房地产的第一次接触，不过是在这里度过一段时间——列车、安全、建筑品质、餐厅以及街区。 直到后来，这种熟悉感才会变成想拥有某种资产的兴趣：一套住宅、一处投资物业，或对日本更广泛的配置。 日元疲软使这样的对话更容易展开。把东京一处房产的价值换算成新元或美元，与其他全球主要城市相比，它可能显得并不昂贵。 但汇率只是这套理由的一部分，而且是最可能发生变化的部分。汇率时刻在动。一栋建筑的地段、租户基础和实体状况则不会。 因此，当我们看一处房产时，花在街区和建筑上的时间，远远多于任何宏观叙事。 谁想住在那里？交通有多好？租赁需求是否持久，附近实际上可能建成多少竞争性供应？房产本身能否改善？ 决定一项资产能否经得起时间考验的，是这些问题，而不是宏观数字。 深入审视日本主要房地产市场 全国平均值也可能从另一个方向误导人——它们低估了最强劲市场正在发生的事情。 2026年政府土地调查发现，东京和大阪都市圈的价格上涨速度远快于全国平均水平。 东京拥有对其有利的基本面：人口持续流入、庞大的就业基础、深厚的住房需求，以及大多数城市只能当作目标去追求的交通基础设施。 大阪正在形成自己的势头，大量投资持续涌入。 京都的特质则完全不同——全球旅游需求遇上了受地理和历史异常制约的供应。 在这三者之外，各地情况差异极大。 我们自己也对这种地方差异下了注。LogProstyle 的业务主要建立在大东京地区，但今年9月，我们完成了对 I-Flatz 的收购。I-Flatz 是一家专注于关西地区大阪和京都的公寓销售、翻新及租赁公司。 这笔交易为我们提供了一个平台，把过去20年里我们在大东京验证过的商业模式带到关西——日本仅次于关东的第二大经济区域——并按照当地商业实际运作的方式加以调整，而不是单纯从东京复制过去。 那里的消费者偏好不同。可获得的住房存量、旅游模式，以及什么能建、什么不能建，也同样不同。忽视这些差异的房地产投资，往往难以成功。 房地产投资者接下来会面对什么 利率也在变动。日本正在逐步退出那套界定了过去数十年的极度宽松货币政策。 日本银行于9月将政策利率上调至1.25%，为31年来的最高水平。 借贷成本如今在我们所作的每一项收购决策中都更加重要。 尽管如此，仍值得放在应有的视角中看待：即便经过此次正常化，买家的按揭利率按全球标准依然非常低，而我们 LogProstyle 自身的平均债务成本仍低于3%——与大多数其他发达市场的借款人相比，这一水平仍然偏低。 如果你是国际投资者——我最常从人在新加坡、正关注日本的人那里听到这一点——有用的做法是尽快具体化。 全国地价指数告诉你风往哪边吹。它不会告诉你，某一栋建筑、位于某一条街道、拥有某一租户基础，到底是不是一项好投资。 那是另一个问题，必须逐一处物业来回答。 连续五年的全国上涨告诉我们，复苏具有真正的广度，而不只是少数热点在撑起平均值。 接下来更难：投资者必须把市场彼此区分开，一座城一座城地看，有时还要一条街一条街地看。 日本主要城市的供应依然有限，国际需求存在，也有大量老化建筑值得再看一眼。 这些力量是真实的。但能够长久的机会，仍会继续来自它们一直来自的地方——理解人们究竟为什么想在某个地方生活、到访和投资。 Yasuyuki Nozawa 是 LogProstyle 的代表董事、总裁兼首席执行官。LogProstyle 是一家总部位于东京、在纽约上市的房地产平台，业务涵盖公寓翻新与转售、住宅开发、面向投资者的物业运营、日式旅馆（ryokan）运营以及餐饮品牌。