Commentary: NDR 2026 – why a higher BTO income ceiling isn’t just a housing policy adjustment

SINGAPORE: The newly announced increase in income ceiling for Build-to-Order (BTO) flats may at first glance appear to be a slight tweak to an existing housing policy. But it is not just that and it should be seen as part of Singapore’s broader efforts to encourage more to form and even grow their families. Announced at the National Day Rally (NDR) on Sunday (Aug 23), the monthly household income ceiling for buying new Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats will be S$16,000 (US$12,500), up from S$14,000.

KEEPING PACE WITH INCOME LEVELS The adjustment will ensure more Singaporean couples continue to have access to subsidised public housing, even as their incomes rise. The median monthly household income came in at S$12,446 last year, up steadily from S$9,232 in 2019, when the BTO income ceiling was last raised from S$12,000 to S$14,000. Before that, the eligibility threshold was raised in 2015 and 2011, each time by S$2,000, to keep pace with income growth. Such periodic reviews matter, because leaving the income ceiling unchanged for too long risks leaving some households caught between the public and private housing markets. Under the previous threshold, those earning slightly more than S$14,000 could find themselves in such a difficult position as they are seen as earning too much to qualify for public housing, but not necessarily enough to comfortably afford private homes, which have seen rapid price increases over the past few years. The same challenge can arise in the HDB resale market, which has likewise seen steady price increases following the pandemic before a reversal in the first quarter of 2026 . The increased income ceiling therefore serves to plug this gap, ensuring that public housing remains within reach for those it is intended for.

A PURPOSE IN FAMILY FORMATION It is also important to situate this adjustment within the country’s broader move to support families – a theme that featured prominently in this year’s NDR with policy changes ranging from more childcare leave to financial support amounting to almost S$70,000 for every Singaporean child. Apart from the rise in living costs, housing has been cited in media reports as among the considerations that sway local attitudes towards having children. While its core objective is to ensure affordable housing for citizens, public housing also fulfils another equally important policy objective of encouraging family formation. The reality is that young families need to feel confident that they can secure a living space – and one that is affordable and adequate – before they consider having children. More than a physical space, a home is the foundation upon which families grow and flourish. The latest income ceiling change, as well as HDB’s existing grants and subsidies, reflects this dual-purpose nature of public housing as a policy tool.

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Sunday also announced that first-timer families with or expecting children will get additional ballot chances – a move that will “significantly improve” their chances of getting a flat. This builds on existing schemes that offer priority to those eligible, such as the First-Timer (Parents & Married Couples) category and the Family and Parenthood Priority Scheme. While the latest initiative will benefit families, especially larger ones, who have yet to secure their first BTO flat, it is difficult to ascertain how many such first-timer families there are. In many instances, couples would typically apply for a BTO flat before they start planning for children. Meanwhile, the additional ballot chance does not apply to second-timer families. In many cases, families choose to upgrade to a bigger flat with the arrival of more children. Some of these families may be priced out of the resale and private property markets but are unable to secure a larger flat to house their growing families. While HDB has increased the allocation quota of three-room and larger flats for second-timer families since July last year, this group continues to face high oversubscription rates for new flats. For example, at the recent BTO sales exercise in June, the median application rate for three-room and bigger BTO flats among second-timer families was at 14.3. Given this close link between family life stages and housing needs, our housing policy should also consider how to support families as they grow.

MORE SUPPLY WILL BE NEEDED Supply of new flats will be key for the government moving forward. The increased income ceiling will bring about higher demand for BTO flats as more families become eligible. Industry analysts are expecting heightened demand for the upcoming November BTO exercise , which could possibly affect application success rates in the short term. To be sure, the government has said the HDB is likely to launch more homes than its initial commitment of 55,000 BTO flats from 2025 to 2027. It has also noted “encouraging results” from its efforts to ramp up housing supply, in the form of higher success rates for booking BTO flats, shorter waiting times and a stabilisation in the resale market. Taken together with the recent move to scrap a 15-month wait-out period for private homeowners looking to buy a HDB resale flat, these reflect a stabilisation in the supply and demand of public housing, and the government’s confidence in maintaining it even amid policy changes that might lead to higher demand. We cannot expect our housing policy alone to be that silver bullet which will persuade Singaporeans to have more children, as these need more changes involving childcare. But concerns about securing an affordable home should not be the reason holding them back from doing so. Dr Woo Jun Jie is Assistant Dean (Academic Affairs) and Senior Lecturer at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.