Singapore Removes 15-Month Wait-Out Period For Private Homeowners Buying Resale HDB Flats: Will Prices Rise Again?

On July 28, the government removed a crucial property cooling measure that shaped the swift recovery in the property market after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. Starting from today, private property owners no longer have to wait 15 months after selling their home before they can buy a resale flat.

In a speech announcing the change, National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat said that the measure had achieved its purpose, and that market conditions have stabilised sufficiently to remove it.

For anyone who remembers why the 15-month wait-out period was implemented in the first place, this announcement is probably less surprising than it appears.

A property cooling measure designed to deal with a situational problem

When the wait-out period was introduced back in September 2022, Singapore’s resale HDB market appeared to be in danger of overheating.

Resale prices had risen by 10.4% that year, and this was a slowdown at that point. The strong performance in the HDB resale market was attributed to cash-rich private property owners, who were also capitalising on rising prices in the private property market to realise the value of their homes.

These so-called ‘right-sizers’ – private home owners downgrading to public housing – were often on the final leg of their property journey. Largely unburdened by concerns about future resale gain, since most would likely not move or sell their property again, they were often willing to pay significantly higher prices to purchase a four- or five-room HDB flat.

This contributed to a significant hike in the price of resale five-room flats, and the 15-month wait-out period was implemented to divert buying demand away from these large-sized units in the public housing market.

It meant that anyone selling a private residential property to buy a resale five-room flat would need to wait 15 months before purchasing that type of flat, unless they qualified for specific exemptions such as those aged 55 or older or right-sizing to a four-room or smaller flat.

However, we should point out that the measure was never presented as a permanent measure, and it was introduced to buy time for the public housing market to adapt while longer-term supply measures took effect.

We also saw that the measure had proportionately less direct success compared to the increase in resale housing supply

Despite the wait-out period, the number of million-dollar HDB transactions continued to climb sharply. Even while the policy was in place, what really moved the needle wasn’t the fact that private home buyers had to wait 15 months to buy a five-room resale flat.

Instead, construction delays eased, Build-To-Order (BTO) supply expanded, and more flats reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP). Recently, we also saw the introduction of shorter waiting time flats, which can be built in just around three years, and an increase in the number of Plus and Prime projects at each BTO sales exercise.

(While Plus and Prime projects are not direct alternatives to pricier resale flats in desirable areas, they do siphon off some of the buying demand from buyers who are truly focused on the location and don’t mind the 10-year MOP or other restrictions.)

Thus, it became clear that the increase in public housing supply did more to divert buying demand for resale five-room flats. And among most market analysts, the removal of the 15-month wait-out period became a matter of when, not if.

Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, notes that since the consistent ramp-up supply of BTO flats over the past few years, coupled with more resale flats reaching MOP, resale prices have been growing at a more moderate pace.

“With more HDB flats reaching MOP and another batch of new flats scheduled to be released in October this year, price growth may remain subdued in the second half of the year, hampered by macroeconomic uncertainties and a dimmer job outlook,” she says, adding that overall application rates for HDB’s BTO flats have been consistently falling, translating to higher ballot success rates for first-timers, amid an ample supply of BTO and SBF flats.

The overall application rate of the June BTO sales launch was 3.4, slightly lower than the 3.7 rate in the October 2025 sales exercise and below the past four-year average application rate of 3.9 (from February 2022 to February 2026). “This implies that competition for flats has eased and the ramp-up in BTO supply is meeting current housing demand,” says Sun.

The HDB resale market today looks very different compared to 2022

On a yearly basis, HDB resale price growth slowed from 10.4% in 2022 to a mere 2.9% in 2025. Resale flat prices have now declined for two consecutive quarters in 2026, something we have not seen in almost seven years. You can see more on the numbers here.

Besides increased BTO supply, as well as Prime and Plus flats and shorter waiting time flats, there is one other factor: over 13,400 flats are expected to reach their MOP in 2026.

Number of MOP flats by year (2024-2028) Credit: Data.gov.sg, HDB, ERA Research

This means that resale buyers today have more options than they did back in 2022, which was marked by a mismatch in housing demand and supply. The government has always stood behind supply as the more durable solution, and today’s announcement bears that out.

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer of ERA Singapore, says that the tangible cooling of the market could have been a key reason that the government has reconsidered and eventually removed the 15-month wait-out period.

“The removal of the 15-month wait-out period is a measured response to a more balanced HDB resale market. It gives private homeowners greater flexibility to right-size, while the larger pipeline of flats reaching MOP should help the market absorb the additional demand and preserve overall market stability,” he says.

Who stands to benefit the most from this reversal?

We reckon that the immediate beneficiaries are actually a small segment of buyers in the resale market today, but are those who are in urgent need for a five-room flat.

These are homebuyers in tight financial situations or who are overleveraged. While this isn’t common in Singapore, there are certain industries – such as in tech and finance – where AI disruptions may be affecting income. Those who bought a private property in better times can now right-size to a resale flat, without the added costs of renting.

Another group of beneficiaries are older Singaporeans who want to buy a larger flat. For example, those right-sizing from older and larger condo units or even landed homes, who would prefer executive flats or five-room flats. Previously, they would have been impacted by the 15-month wait as well, if they wanted a resale flat larger than a four-room.

ERA outlines the following guidelines for buyers:

If you are an existing private property owner, you would still need to dispose of all private residential property interests in Singapore and overseas within six months, after completing the HDB resale purchase. Private home owners also still need to obtain a HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter in order to purchase a resale flat, much like first-time resale flat buyers.

Meanwhile, private home owners who want to purchase a subsidised HDB flat (such as a BTO) with or without housing grants, or a resale flat with housing grants, an Executive Condominium unit from a property developer, or intend to obtain an HDB housing loan for their flat purchase, the existing requirement to wait out a period of 30 months after the disposal of their private residential property remains unchanged.

Turning back to the situation in the public housing market, while an increase in housing supply has ramped up competition in the resale market lately, this reversal could lead to a short burst in buying activity in the five-room segment. With restrictions lifted, there may be a momentary surge of resale flat buyers rushing into the market.

Will this push HDB resale prices up again?

The group affected by the wait-out period has always been relatively small compared to the overall HDB resale market. While some pent-up demand may return, the public housing market is different compared to its profile four years ago.

Certain segments of the resale market, such as larger flats in mature estates that are particularly attractive to right-sizers, might be on the receiving end of some pent-up demand. But I would be surprised if this policy’s removal materially raises resale flat prices.

“We view the removal of the 15-month wait-out period as a measured policy recalibration that gives private homeowners greater flexibility to right-size, while retaining the safeguards governing subsidised public housing,” says Lim of ERA

He adds that making it easier for private homeowners to purchase resale five-room flats may also facilitate smoother movement across the housing ladder, potentially releasing more private resale homes when affected owners dispose of their existing properties. But he also cautions that these transactions will require careful coordination of HFE applications, financing, sale proceeds and completion timelines.

Meanwhile, Sun cautions that with more private home buyers now able to buy bigger resale flats, demand for slightly smaller ones like four-room resale flats may fall. “Therefore, the two-speed market may persist, whereby demand and price growth may continue to be slow for smaller and less well-located flats, whereas newer and bigger resale flats may continue to perform well,” she says.

Ultimately, today’s announcement signals that the government is confident in the overall stability of the HDB resale market. While there will always be unique HDB flats commanding high prices (such as DBSS flats, flat at landmarks like The Pinnacle @ Duxton, and so forth) the resale market as a whole has clearly moved on since the heady days of the post pandemic phase.