Fall in younger HDB resale deals as buyers flock to BTO flats: Realion
The decline signals buyers are shifting toward cheaper BTO supply, potentially restraining demand and price growth for younger resale flats after their three-year average price rose 21.2%.
Transactions of HDB resale flats under ten years old fell 21.8% y-o-y to 1,222 units in 2Q2026, the lowest second-quarter volume in six years.
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Demand for younger resale flats declined last quarter, as buyers turned to more affordable Build-to-Order (BTO) flats, according to research by Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.
In a July research report on the HDB resale and BTO market, the firm highlights that transactions involving resale flats less than ten years old dropped to 1,222 units in 2Q2026. This is 21.8% lower y-o-y, and also represents the smallest second quarter transaction volume in six years. The last low was during the pandemic, when 836 younger resale flats were sold in 2Q2020.
In addition, younger resale flat deals made up 19.7% of total resale transactions in 2Q2026, the smallest since 2Q2019’s 18.9%. For the first six months of 2026, younger resale flats transacted totalled 2,322, less than half of the 5,459 units sold in 2025.
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The fall in younger resale flat transactions comes amid a rising supply of BTO flats, with many being launched in prime and city fringe areas. In June, 6,952 BTO units were launched for sale across towns including Bishan, Bukit Merah and Ang Mo Kio.
The decline may also reflect a broader trend. Realion points out that the proportion of younger flat transactions has been on a downward trajectory that corresponds to changes to the HDB housing framework.
Following the introduction of the Prime Location Housing model in 2021, younger resale flats made up 28.2% of total resale transactions in 2Q2023, with the figure declining to 26.2% in 2Q2024. After HDB introduced the Plus and Prime flat categories in October 2024, the figure further dipped to 22.9% in 2Q2025, then to 19.7% in 2Q2026.
The declining market share indicates shrinking demand for younger resale flats, says Realion. At the same time, increasing prices of younger resale flats may have also deterred buyers. The average price of younger resale flats jumped 21.2% over the last three years, going from $619,970 in 2Q2023 to $751,361 in 2Q2026.
In comparison, BTO flats launched in June offered buyers more affordable options. For example, a four-room flat at Lakeview Cascadia in Bishan started from $534,000 (excluding housing grants), while a similar flat at Sembawang Brook started from $302,000, Realion adds.
Against this backdrop, the HDB resale market saw prices decline for a second consecutive quarter in 2026. Resale prices fell 0.3% in 2Q2026, based on HDB flash estimates. However, overall resale volume increased marginally, rising 2.6% q-o-q to 6,203 units.
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