From $833 to $1,312 psf ppr: What has been driving a decade of rising GLS land prices?

A Government Land Sale (GLS) site on Lorong Puntong/Sin Ming Avenue set a new land price record for the Rest of Central Region (RCR) in September. The winning bid of $208.1 million works out to $1,612 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr), surpassing the previous RCR high of $1,515 psf ppr set at Berlayar Drive in August.

The record extends a decade-long climb in land prices. Average land prices for residential GLS sites rose from $833 psf ppr in 2016 to $1,312 psf ppr in 2025, equivalent to growth of about 5% a year. This is based on an EdgeProp Singapore analysis of 63 sites awarded over the period.

General uptrend in land prices over the past decade

The increase in land prices has been uneven over the past decade (see Chart 1). Land rates averaged about $941 psf ppr between 2016 and 2020, before holding at $1,100 and $1,200 psf ppr from 2021 to 2024. In 2025, the average jumped 17% y-o-y to $1,312 psf ppr.

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The 2018 average of $1,133 psf ppr was lifted by the Cuscaden Road site, now Cuscaden Reserve, which was awarded at $2,377 psf ppr. Excluding that site, the year’s average would have been $1,001 psf ppr, in line with the other years.

Meanwhile, 2023 and 2024 saw a dip, though this does not necessarily mean land became cheaper. It coincided with the harmonisation of gross floor area (GFA) definitions, which applies to GLS sites launched for sale from Sept 1, 2022. All nine sites awarded in 2022 were tendered under the previous definitions.

Under the harmonised definitions, airconditioning ledges count towards GFA, while voids no longer count towards saleable areas. This means each square foot of GFA yields less saleable space, so the same land rate, in psf ppr, now represents a higher effective cost to developers than before.

OCR land prices close in on CCR

The gap between land prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) narrowed over the past decade. It fell from $633 psf ppr in 2016–2020 to $242 psf ppr in 2021– 2025 (see Chart 2).

This was driven by a combination of higher OCR land prices and lower CCR land prices. The OCR average climbed 46%, from $741 psf ppr in 2016–2020 to $1,080 psf ppr in 2021–2025. In contrast, the CCR average slipped 4%, from $1,374 psf ppr to $1,322 psf ppr.

However, the OCR’s increase was inconsistent. Land prices fell in six of the eight years between 2017 and 2024, before surging 44% in 2025.

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The 2025 jump may largely reflect the locations of sites sold that year. Four of the six OCR sites were in established housing areas in Bedok and Serangoon. These sites averaged $1,359 psf ppr and attracted between five and 10 bids each.

Meanwhile, the two OCR sites awarded in 2024, on Canberra Crescent and Faber Walk, averaged $849 psf ppr and attracted three bids each. Canberra Crescent is some distance from the nearest MRT station, while Faber Walk is in a quieter, low-density area near landed homes.

What’s behind the increase in land prices?

The analysis points to three factors that could have supported higher land prices over the past decade: rising new home prices, lower unsold inventory and a shift towards GLS sites amid fewer en bloc deals.

New home prices have risen over the past decade

Higher new home prices are likely one reason behind rising land values. Developers bid based on the prices they expect to achieve when a project is launched, so higher expected selling prices could support higher land bids.

The relationship also works in the other direction, as higher land costs can feed into launch prices. While the data cannot isolate the effect of one on the other, both have moved upwards over the past decade.

Average new-sale prices of private non-landed homes, excluding executive condos (ECs), climbed 84% between 2016 and 2025, based on URA caveat data (see Table 1).

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The OCR recorded the strongest increase at 83%, slightly ahead of the RCR’s 80%, while the CCR saw a smaller 41% gain. The overall increase was higher still, partly because a larger share of new homes sold in 2025 was in the more expensive RCR and CCR.

URA’s property price index accounts for differences in the mix of homes transacted by controlling for factors such as age and size. The index rose 52% between 1Q2016 and 4Q2025. The OCR again led with a 69% increase, followed by the RCR at 62% and CCR at 22%.

The OCR’s homebuyer pool has also changed over the decade. Those with HDB addresses — used here as a proxy for HDB upgraders — accounted for 67% of purchases of private homes in 2016, but their share of the total fell to 41% in 2025 (see Chart 3).

Buyers with private addresses also tended to spend more on private homes. Their median purchase price was $2 million in 2025, compared with $1.73 million for those with HDB addresses.

Together, these shifts could have raised developers’ expectations of achievable selling prices in the OCR. This may also explain why OCR land prices recorded the strongest growth, climbing 72% between 2016 and 2025.

Developers bid more when unsold stock runs low

Land prices have tended to be higher when there were fewer unsold private homes on the market. The two moved in opposite directions in eight of the 10 years between 2016 and 2025 (see Chart 4).

The pattern also holds when comparing individual sites, after accounting for regional differences in land prices. Winning bids were about 4% to 5% higher for every 10% decline in unsold stock in the year before each tender closed.

Lower unsold inventory can signal healthy housing demand. It also means developers have fewer units left to sell, potentially giving them greater incentive to replenish their land banks.

There were two exceptions over the decade: 2018 and 2024, when land prices and unsold stock increased together.

Unsold stock rose 76% in 2018. This came as many sites bought in the wave of en bloc sales in 2017 received planning approval. URA counts a project’s units as unsold supply once it has obtained planning approval, even before it launches.

The higher average land price in 2018 was also pushed up by the Cuscaden Road site, which fetched $2,377 psf ppr. In 2024, average land prices edged up 2% even as unsold stock increased 18%.

The inverse relationship has resumed this year. Average unsold stock is down 9% so far in 2026, while land prices have climbed to $1,465 psf ppr.

That said, the mix of sites sold this year has also contributed to the higher average. RCR and CCR sites, which typically command higher land prices, accounted for 57% of the GFA of sites awarded so far this year, up from 42% in 2025.

En bloc slowdown leaves developers more reliant on GLS

Collective sales have dwindled since 2018, leaving developers with fewer ways to buy residential land. With fewer alternatives, those looking to replenish their land banks may be willing to pay more for GLS sites.

Residential en bloc deals peaked at 38 in 2018 (see Chart 5), with 35 concluded before cooling measures took effect on July 6 that year.

The measures raised the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) for housing developers from 15% to 30%, payable upfront. Of this, 25 percentage points could be remitted if all units were completed and sold within five years.

The same timeline applies to GLS sites. However, en bloc sites can be more challenging to redevelop within five years, as existing owners must first vacate before the buildings can be demolished and redevelopment can begin.

Following the cooling measures, the number of collective sales fell to four in 2019. Transactions recovered to 11 in 2021 before declining to two by 2023.

This followed another ABSD increase in December 2021, which raised the rate for housing developers to 40%, of which 35 percentage points are remittable.

As en bloc activity declined, GLS accounted for a growing share of the residential GFA of sites acquired by developers through the two channels. GLS’ share rose from less than 30% in 2017 and 2018 to at least 69% each year from 2022 (see Chart 6).

The government also ramped up GLS supply from 2022. Despite the additional supply, land prices held up before climbing again in 2025.

This suggests that developers looking to replenish their land banks may have become more reliant on GLS sites. However, it does not necessarily mean more bids were made for each site.

Fewer bids, yet higher prices

Stronger competition does not appear to explain the increase in land prices. GLS tenders have attracted fewer bids in recent years (see Chart 7).

Sites attracted an average of 7.9 to 13.3 bids a year between 2016 and 2018, but the annual average has not exceeded 6.2 since 2022.

Part of the decline may reflect developers increasingly forming joint ventures, resulting in fewer separate bids for each site. Winning bids involved an average of 1.3 to 1.7 developers between 2016 and 2019, compared with 1.7 to 2.0 since 2022. The average has reached 2.2 developers so far in 2026, the highest since 2016.

Joint ventures allow developers to share the risks associated with large sites. However, the analysis does not indicate that joint ventures consistently pay more for land.

Compared with other sites awarded in the same year and region, joint-venture wins between 2016 and 2025 showed no consistent premium over bids by individual developers. This points away from greater bidder competition as a driver of higher land prices.

Higher land costs could set a higher floor for new launches

Rising new home prices and lower unsold inventory appear to have supported what developers are willing to pay for land. At the same time, fewer en bloc deals may have channelled more demand for development land towards the GLS programme.

Many projects launched in recent years sit on sites acquired between 2022 and 2024, when average land prices were about $1,100 to $1,200 psf ppr.

Sites awarded since then have cost more, averaging $1,312 psf ppr in 2025 and $1,465 psf ppr so far this year for residential GLS plots. As projects on these GLS sites are launched, their higher land costs are likely to be reflected in new homes’ selling prices.

The extent of this will vary by region and site. GLS land rates so far this year have averaged $1,331 psf ppr in the OCR and $1,697 psf ppr in the CCR. Within each region, eventual launch prices will also depend on site-specific factors such as MRT accessibility and competing supply nearby.

Note: Average land prices in psf ppr are calculated by dividing the total land price paid by the total maximum permissible GFA of the sites sold. This gives larger sites more weight, reducing the impact of a single small site with an unusually high or low winning bid on the overall average.