Has the HDB market decoupled from the private property market?

The 2Q2026 figures raised questions over whether the private residential and HDB resale markets had begun to decouple.

In 2026, private property prices continued to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace than in 2025. Meanwhile, HDB resale prices eased for three consecutive quarters.

The widening gap is a concern because HDB owners may have less equity from selling their flats to put towards buying a private home. This could reduce upgrader demand and, in turn, weigh on private home prices.

Explore comprehensive data about all ECs, including the average profit at 5 and 10 years

It could also slow transactions in the HDB resale market and widen the wealth gap between households that can progress up the property ladder and those that cannot.

However, the current divergence is not without precedent. In the previous property cycle, private home prices bottomed in 2Q2017, while HDB resale prices continued to decline until 2Q2019.

Could the divergence lead to a structural shift in the housing market?

The HDB resale and private residential markets are closely linked. Many HDB owners sell their flats and use the proceeds to upgrade to a private home or executive condo (EC).

According to the latest statistics, 77.2% of resident households in Singapore lived in HDB flats in 2025, and 92.3% of these households owned their homes. This large pool of HDB homeowners represents a significant source of demand for private residential property.

From 2017 to 2019, when HDB and private property prices diverged, the number of private home buyers with HDB addresses — a proxy for HDB upgraders — fell from 11,798 to 7,997. At first glance, this decline could suggest that the widening price gap made it harder for HDB owners to upgrade to private homes.

However, in July 2018, the government raised the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) rate for Singaporeans buying their second and subsequent residential properties.

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The cooling measure therefore affected buyers based on the number of residential properties they owned, rather than whether they lived in an HDB flat or private property.

Overall transaction volumes in the private residential market, including ECs, declined in 2018 and 2019 following the cooling measures.

Despite the fall in transactions, HDB upgraders continued to account for a fairly stable share of buyers, at around 40% from 2017 to 2019.

A breakdown by type of sale shows a similar pattern. From 2017 to 2019, HDB upgraders accounted for around 46% of buyers in the new private home market and about 35% in the resale and sub-sale market.

This suggests that the divergence between HDB and private property prices did not materially deter HDB owners from upgrading during the period.

The data was also broken down by property type — ECs, landed homes and non-landed homes.

In the EC segment, HDB upgraders accounted for 72.1% of buyers in 2019, up from 61.9% in 2017. The increase was likely supported by the higher income ceiling for buyers of new ECs, which was raised to $16,000 a month in 2019.

Read also: Government raises income ceiling for BTO flats to $16,000, ECs to $18,000 to widen buyer pool

Among buyers of new ECs, the share of HDB upgraders rose to almost 85% in 2019, from 66.4% in 2018.

By comparison, HDB upgraders accounted for a stable share of around 60% of buyers in the resale EC market. In the landed segment, their share remained at around 20% from 2017 to 2019 across sale types, reflecting the higher prices that put landed homes beyond the reach of most HDB upgraders.

In the non-landed, or condominium, market, HDB upgraders accounted for around 40% of buyers over the same period, while buyers with private residential addresses made up slightly more than half.

Reasons behind the stable buyer profile

Government policies and relatively stable private home prices may have helped keep the buyer profile broadly unchanged from 2017 to 2019.

During this period, HDB reduced the supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats, potentially diverting some demand to the resale market and making it easier for existing owners to sell their flats and upgrade. At the same time, the higher income ceiling for BTO buyers may have tempered resale demand.

The impact on the new EC market, however, appears to have been positive. The share of buyers with HDB addresses rose to 84.8% in 2019, even as the average price of an EC unit exceeded $1 million for the first time.

Private home prices were also relatively stable over the period. The average price of a landed home eased 2.9% to $3.7 million in 2019, from $3.8 million in 2017. Non-landed home prices, meanwhile, rose by 3.6% from 2017 to 2019. These relatively modest price movements may have helped keep private homes within reach of HDB upgraders.

Will it be déjà vu in 2026?

After several years of ramping up BTO supply from 2021, the larger pipeline of new flats may be easing demand pressures in the HDB resale market.

In 2Q2026, the HDB Resale Price Index was 0.4% below its 3Q2025 peak. Over the same period, private residential property prices rose by 2.0%.

The question is whether HDB resale prices will continue to ease in the coming quarters or regain their footing. Recent policy changes, such as the removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners buying non-subsidised HDB resale flats, could boost demand and provide some support for resale prices.

Regardless, the key question arising from the divergence between the HDB and private residential markets is whether upward housing mobility can be sustained.

Since 2016, the proportion of HDB upgraders has steadily declined, against the backdrop of a broader shift in Singapore’s housing profile.

In 1995, 95.4% of resident households lived in HDB flats, compared with just 4.6% in private residential properties.

The housing profile has changed significantly, with the share of households living in private residential properties rising to 17.9% against a backdrop of rising household wealth.

The larger share of households already living in private housing may partly explain the decline in HDB upgraders.

Another factor may be the faster appreciation of private home prices. From the beginning of 2016 to 1H2026, private property prices rose by 59.9%, compared with a 50.7% increase in HDB resale prices.

The widening price gap between the two markets may have made it more challenging for some HDB owners to upgrade.

Upgrading to prime condos, landed housing

The landed market has become the most difficult segment for HDB owners to upgrade into. HDB upgraders accounted for just 3.1% of buyers of new landed homes in 1H2026, a record low.

With a new 99-year leasehold terraced house easily costing more than $4 million, the price gap can be difficult to bridge even for owners of million-dollar HDB flats, unless they are able to pool resources with another family.

The decline has been less pronounced for private non-landed homes in the Core Central Region (CCR). However, the data suggests that some HDB upgraders may be trading space for a prime location.

In 2016, the average size of a new CCR private non-landed home purchased by an HDB upgrader was 79.8 sq m (859 sq ft). By 1H2026, this had fallen to 68.1 sq m (733 sq ft).

In the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), the share of HDB upgraders buying new private homes fell to roughly 20% in 1H2026, from around 50% in 2016.

Affordability may be a key factor. Prices of new private non-landed homes in the RCR and OCR have at least doubled since 2016. Over the same period, resale prices of four-room and larger HDB flats rose by slightly more than 50%, widening the price gap between the two markets.

Higher ABSD rates may also have influenced upgrading decisions. The ABSD rate for Singaporeans purchasing a second residential property has risen to 20%, adding to the upfront cost for HDB owners who buy a private property before disposing of their existing flat.

The EC market, meanwhile, remains closely linked to the HDB market because of government eligibility and allocation rules. Around 50% of buyers of new ECs in 1H2026 had an HDB address.

Rethinking the upgrading pathway

Aspiring homeowners who hope to upgrade from an HDB BTO flat to a new private non-landed home may need to think more carefully about their housing strategy.

Plus and Prime BTO flats come with longer minimum occupation periods (MOPs), which could delay an eventual upgrade and reduce flexibility. Buyers of resale Plus and Prime flats must also meet the prevailing monthly household income ceiling of $16,000, potentially narrowing the pool of future buyers. By comparison, a Standard BTO flat may offer greater flexibility for those pursuing asset progression.

Recent changes to EC policy could also strengthen ECs as a stepping stone to private housing. The allocation of new EC units to eligible first-timer families has been raised from 70% to 90%, while the monthly household income ceiling has increased to $18,000, potentially allowing more households to qualify.

As the gap between HDB and private home prices widens, ECs may therefore become increasingly important in supporting upward housing mobility. Under the current policy framework, Standard BTO flats and new ECs may offer first-time buyers greater flexibility for future asset progression.