HDB resale prices dip 0.2% q-o-q in 3Q2026, while transaction volumes surge: HDB flash estimates
The volume surge alongside muted overall prices signals resilient right-sizing demand without broad price escalation, although larger and million-dollar flats may attract stronger buying interest.
HDB resale prices dipped 0.2% q-o-q in 3Q2026 despite transactions surging 17.7% to 7,528 after the 15-month wait-out period was removed.
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HDB resale prices fell for a third consecutive quarter in 3Q2026. Flash estimates published by HDB on Oct 1 show that the Resale Price Index (RPI) dipped 0.2% q-o-q, narrowing from the 0.3% fall recorded in the previous quarter.
This came despite an improvement in market sentiment and an increase in housing enquiries following recent policy changes, noted Christine Sun, chief research and strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.
On July 28, the 15-month wait-out period was removed for private property owners (PPOs) and ex-private property owners (ex-PPOs) buying a non-subsidised resale flat.
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“Following the policy adjustment, there was a noticeable increase in buying interest and sales enquiries from private homeowners for HDB resale flats looking to right-size,” said Sun.
Resale transactions totalled 7,528 in 3Q2026, marking a 17.7% q-o-q increase.
Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, remarked: “While the PPOs and ex-PPOs were able to buy larger flats from July 28, the effect on prices was relatively muted in 3Q2026, alleviating concerns over outbidding and potential price surge by this group of buyers.”
HDB RPI and transaction volume
Larger flat types drive resale volume
An uptick in sales for larger flat types attributed to the spike in resale transactions, said Eugene Lim, key executive office of ERA Singapore.
A total of 1,822 five-room flats and 535 executive flats were sold during the quarter, up by 23.7% q-o-q and 39% q-o-q, respectively.
Additionally, million-dollar flat transactions also trended upwards in 3Q2026, with 597 resale flats changing hands for at least $1 million during the quarter. These transactions accounted for 8.5% of total resale flat transactions in 3Q2026.
ERA’s Lim noted: “Demand for million-dollar flats could have been driven by cash-flush private homeowners, who now face fewer barriers to entering the HDB resale market.”
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Five-room and larger flats formed the bulk, with 353 transactions, up 24.5% q-o-q from 283 in 2Q2026.
Million-dollar flat transaction volume since 2012
Prices of million-dollar flats similarly increased in 3Q20256, with average prices standing around $1.16 million, 1.1% higher than $1.147 million in 2Q2026.
Additionally, the proportion of million-dollar flat transactions in non-mature estates stood at 11.4% in 3Q2026 — the highest thus far, noted Huttons’ Lee.
The most expensive transaction came from the sale of a five-room flat at The Pinnacle @ Duxton for $1.72 million in September, beating the previous record of $1.7 million set just days earlier.
Resale market to “face headwinds”
Realion’s Sun expects the HDB resale market to face headwinds following the increase in the income ceiling for BTO flats. From August 2026, the income ceiling was raised to $16,000 for couples and families and $8,000 for singles.
“The higher income ceiling would allow some to buy larger or pricier BTO flats, thus diverting more buyers away from larger, higher-priced flats in the resale market,” she added.
Read also: Record-smashing $1.701 mil HDB resale: How this Pinnacle@Duxton unit defied the odds
That said, Huttons’ Lee noted government changes to the allocation and distance priority for Primary 1 registration under Phase 2C from 2027. Under phase 2C, 60 places will be set aside, up from 40 currently.
In addition, 12 primary schools in Bukit Timah, Newton and Marine Parade will allocate more places to children living more than 2km away. For these schools, half of the places will be reserved for children living within 2km and the other half for those living beyond 2km.
The changes could benefit HDB resale flats in areas such as Bedok, Bukit Batok, Bukit Merah, Bukit Timah, the Central Area, Clementi, Geylang, Kallang/Whampoa, Marine Parade, Queenstown and Toa Payoh that are located near the 12 schools, according to Huttons.
Still, Lee expects the HDB resale market to bottom in 4Q2026.
The 13,484 flats reaching their five-year minimum occupation period in 2026 could see keen interest, with some centrally located and five-room flats potentially fetching at least $1 million.
Huttons projects resale flat transactions to total between 22,000 and 26,000 in 2026, while resale price movement may be between -1% to 1%.
Meanwhile, ERA anticipates resale transaction volumes to hover around 26,000 and an annual price growth between 2% to 5%.
“This aligns with the Government’s aim for a stable and sustainable HDB resale market, characterised by resilient buyer demand and healthy price growth,” said ERA’s Lim.