Removal of 15-month rule unlikely to drive up HDB resale prices: Analysts

SINGAPORE: The removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private owners buying Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats may unlock pent-up demand from households looking to right-size but is unlikely to trigger another sharp increase in resale prices, according to property analysts. With HDB resale prices moderating, a growing pipeline of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) over the next few years and buyers continuing to have alternatives such as Build-to-Order (BTO) flats, experts said the market is better placed to absorb the additional demand. National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat announced on Tuesday (Jul 28) that the wait-out period will be scrapped with immediate effect, allowing eligible private property owners to buy non-subsidised HDB resale flats without waiting 15 months after selling their private homes. Analysts noted that the restriction was introduced when HDB resale prices were rising rapidly. Since then, the market has cooled. HDB resale prices have declined for two consecutive quarters since the start of the year. This follows five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth. Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group , said the key objectives of the cooling measure had largely been achieved, pointing to moderating HDB resale prices and lower resale transaction volumes as signs that the public housing market has stabilised. Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, said the removal of the wait-out period will give private homeowners greater flexibility to right-size, while the larger pipeline of flats reaching MOP should help absorb the additional demand and preserve overall market stability. Since its introduction in 2022, HDB has processed about 1,800 appeals annually from private property owners to waive the 15-month wait-out period. This number has been “stable” over the last few years, with HDB acceding to about one in four appeals, the ministry said in a written parliamentary reply last year. This is mainly for households in financial difficulties or extenuating circumstances, who have no alternative housing options. DEMAND LIKELY CONCENTRATED IN LARGER FLATS Analysts CNA spoke to said the biggest impact is likely to be felt in the market for larger resale flats. Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Group, said the cooling measure had achieved its objective of reducing demand from private property owners for five-room or larger flats. Transaction volumes for five-room resale flats fell from 6,951 units in 2022 to 5,966 units in 2025, while executive and multi-generation flat sales declined from 1,946 to 1,539 units over the same period. “Based on current sentiments, Huttons Data Analytics predicts that the volume of five-room and executive/multi-gen flats sold in 2026 may be similar to 2025,” he said. Meanwhile, four-room resale flat transactions remained broadly stable at around 11,000 units annually, suggesting demand did not spill over significantly into smaller flats, he added. With the restriction lifted, Mr Lee said he expects some former private homeowners to return to the market for larger flats. "This may potentially provide support to the HDB resale market which has been sluggish in the first half of 2026," he said, adding that resale prices could stabilise in the second half of the year rather than spike. He added that first-time buyers continue to have alternatives, including BTO flats, ECs and private homes, making a sharp rise in HDB resale prices unlikely. Similarly, Ms Sun said the renewed demand is likely to be concentrated in larger resale flats, as former private homeowners are typically cash-rich after selling their private homes and tend to prioritise larger units that offer more space and value. With more HDB flats reaching MOP and another batch of new flats scheduled to be released in October this year, Ms Sun said price growth may remain subdued in the second half of the year, hampered by macroeconomic uncertainties and a dimmer job outlook. Mr Lee added that prices of resale flats may "possibly stabilise" in the second half of the year.

“TWO-SPEED” MARKET While analysts do not expect a broad-based surge in resale prices, they said some segments could see stronger demand than others. As the pool of former private homeowners buying larger HDB flats grows, Ms Sun said there could be more million-dollar resale flat transactions. However, she said these premium transactions still account for only a small share of the overall market, meaning any price increases are likely to remain confined to that segment rather than spill over to the broader resale market. “Moreover, ample overall housing supply will continue to keep price growth stable and measured in the upcoming years,” she said. Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI) , added that although million-dollar HDB resale transactions have continued, they remain concentrated in a small number of mature estates with strong locational attributes, rather than reflecting broad-based price growth across the resale market. "We expect resale prices to remain broadly stable and continue to forecast a more measured price increase of between 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent for the full year 2026," he added. Ms Sun added that demand for four-room resale flats could soften as more private homeowners gravitate towards larger units, resulting in a "two-speed" market where newer and bigger resale flats continue to outperform while smaller or less well-located flats experience slower price growth. Analysts also said the change could encourage more movement across Singapore's housing market. As private homeowners sell their properties to move into HDB resale flats, more private homes could become available, potentially giving buyers more options. Mr Lee said this additional supply may contribute to further stabilisation in private residential prices, which have also moderated in recent years. Ms Sun added that rental demand and price growth for small condominiums and large HDB resale flats could slow down in the upcoming months as locals who used to lease during the 15-month wait-out period no longer need to lease. While some pent-up demand is expected, Mr Lim said the increase in MOP flats entering the resale market over the next few years should help ensure sufficient supply for both first-time buyers and households moving from private property. About 13,500 flats are expected to reach their MOP this year, compared with 8,000 such flats in 2025.

REVISED ABSD RULES Analysts also welcomed revised Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) rules for large en bloc projects, which were also announced on Monday. The changes, which take effect for residential land acquired on or after Jul 29, 2026, give developers of larger projects longer timelines to meet conditions tied to ABSD remission, while introducing new safeguards to ensure homes are released to the market in a timely manner. Mr Marcus Chu, chief executive officer of ERA Singapore, said the changes provide developers with greater flexibility and could sustain the recent pick-up in en bloc activity, although a broader recovery will still depend on factors such as owners' price expectations and development costs. Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at Mogul.sg, said the revised timelines could prompt owners of large, ageing residential developments - particularly 99-year leasehold projects - to explore collective sales, as redevelopment becomes more viable. However, he said significant hurdles remain, including the rising cost of replacement homes for owners, unchanged plot ratios at many ageing estates, and competition from Government Land Sales (GLS) sites, which developers may still prefer because of the shorter process and lower risk of owners’ objections and litigation. Mr Mohan said over the longer term, the revised framework could support a gradual increase in the redevelopment of ageing large residential estates that were previously more challenging to undertake. This may contribute to a healthier pipeline of future housing supply while accelerating estate rejuvenation and enabling more intensive land use in line with Singapore's long-term planning objectives, he said.