A changing tide in the HDB resale market?

HDB resale prices moderated in the first two quarters of 2026, following an extended run-up stretching over six years. Between 3Q2019 and 4Q2025, the HDB resale price index climbed 56%. It then edged down by 0.1% q-o-q in 1Q2026 and a further 0.3% q-o-q in 2Q2026. Resale volumes have also moderated from the elevated levels seen in the post-pandemic years.

Prices have declined for two consecutive quarters, albeit modestly, while sales have weakened amid a ramp-up in new flat supply and cooling measures introduced since 2021 (see Chart 1).

This may recall the years after 2013, when increased BTO flat supply and policy tightening were similarly used to rein in rapid price growth. What followed was a period of tepid sales and a shallow, six-year decline in the price index from 2013 to 2018.

Read also: Bishan executive maisonette just sold for $1.65 million — among five highest HDB resale prices

The question is whether history will repeat itself. It may not.

Same toolkit, but different dosage

The lead-up to each of the two price peaks — 2Q2013 and 3Q2025 — was rather different. The earlier surge reflected a structural housing shortage and strong buying interest from Singapore permanent resident (PR) households. High cash-over-valuation (COV) amounts were a sign of just how tight the market had become.

Meanwhile, the more recent run-up had different roots. Severe construction delays during the Covid-19 pandemic, alongside a preference for larger homes, pushed many buyers into the resale market from the second half of 2020.

In our view, the 2013 measures likely hit harder than those deployed today. New PR households, then a meaningful segment of HDB resale demand, faced a three-year wait before they could buy resale flats.

Those who owned flats were barred from subletting an entire unit and had to sell their flat within six months of buying a private home. Financing was also tightened, with the mortgage servicing ratio (MSR) cut to 30% and the maximum tenure for loans granted to purchase HDB flats reduced.

By contrast, today’s adjustments have been more incremental and were phased in over nearly three years. The loan-to-value limit for HDB loans was lowered in three steps from December 2021.

Meanwhile, a 15-month wait-out period was introduced in September 2022 for former private homeowners seeking to buy a non-subsidised HDB resale flat. The measure affected a relatively small pool of buyers.

Read also: A three-room flat in Toa Payoh was recently sold for $890,000, a new record for its flat type in the estate

On July 28, 2026, the government removed the wait-out period, citing the stabilisation of the resale market.

In both cycles, the demand-side measures were accompanied by an increased supply of BTO flats, which helped moderate resale demand by giving first-time buyers more options.

Moderation may play out differently

Even though the price index has softened, sales are holding up.

Today, while resale volumes have eased from the elevated levels of more than 7,700 units per quarter on average in 2021 to around 6,300 flats a quarter in the first half of 2026, they remain well above the average quarterly sales of about 4,500 recorded in the 2.5 years following the 2Q2013 peak.

Broadly, we expect resale volumes to remain relatively steady amid population growth and household formation.

In particular, the sudden withdrawal of demand from new PR households seen in the previous cycle is unlikely to recur, as the three-year PR-status rule remains in force and the resale market has since adjusted to it.

Moreover, buyers have largely taken measures such as the MSR in their stride and are better informed today.

Read also: What's moving the market: Singapore's biggest property deals and hottest searches (July 31)

It is also worth noting that median prices have been more resilient than in the last cycle. The overall median resale price peaked at $455,000 in 2013 and eased to $400,000 by 2019 (see Chart 2) — a decline of about 12% spread across six years, with most of that adjustment occurring in 2014, when the median price fell by 7.7% to $420,000.

For context, today’s median of $630,000 sits some 38.5% above the 2013 peak and is at an all-time high, notwithstanding the dip in the price index.

In addition, market observations suggest that COV may be less prevalent today, particularly after a March 2014 rule change requiring buyers to obtain the option to purchase before seeking a valuation, shifting resale negotiations away from COV and towards transacted prices.

In a survey of PropNex salespersons who closed 110 transactions involving million-dollar resale flats in 2025, 69% of buyers paid no COV. Furthermore, in a recent Telegram poll, 67% of the 280 respondents said they would not pay COV if they were buying a resale flat today.

When fewer buyers pay COV, it suggests that transaction prices are generally closer to market valuations rather than being pushed up by competitive bidding. This can contribute to a more stable resale market.

Upgrader demand still intact

We do not expect the marginal dips in the HDB resale price index of late to severely impact upgrader aspirations. In fact, signs suggest upgrader demand remains intact. In April, the Tengah Garden Residences condo sold 853 of its 863 units at its launch weekend, with Singaporeans accounting for 90% of buyers. It included strong demand from upgraders, according to the developer.

Several mass-market condo launches also posted healthy take-up rates: 93% at Pinery Residences, 72% at Vela Bay and 54% at Lentor Gardens Residences. Meanwhile, executive condos (ECs) Coastal Cabana and Rivelle Tampines achieved launch take-up rates of 66% and 93%, respectively.

Many flat owners are likely sitting on substantial equity after the post-pandemic surge in HDB resale prices. Some may consider selling and using the proceeds to fund a private home purchase. However, the amount they realise from the sale will largely determine which private housing options are within reach.

For instance, among resale flats that recently reached their minimum occupation period (MOP), median transaction prices varied widely — from $1.3 million in Clementi to about $642,000 in Bukit Batok (see table), excluding towns with fewer than 20 transactions. For some owners, the sale proceeds may be sufficient to fund a move into private housing, while others may find an EC a more realistic option.

In a calmer market, prospective flat buyers may also be in a better position. They have more choices from the MOP stock and BTO pipeline, including new flats with shorter waiting times, and are under less pressure to pay above valuation for a resale flat.

Taken together, the HDB resale market is recalibrating, and the changing tide may carry the market towards greater stability.